紧缩政策产生负面影响 中国“地王”岌岌可危

The days of Chinese developers snatching up premium properties with record-breaking offers are coming to an end as cooling measures bite and sale prices are squeezed, ending the reign of a handful of "land kings" in the world's second-largest economy.

First coined during the stimulus-fuelled 2009 real-estate boom, the Chinese expression is used to describe developers - at the time mostly state-owned companies - willing to pay whatever it took to secure land banks.

A string of records were broken at auctions late last year, when private-sector real-estate companies increased their presence in the market.

But while the cost of land in premier markets, or first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, soared 135 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, property sale prices inched up just 15 percent, according to BNP Paribas.

The already high costs and the prospect of slowing property sales mean the days of records being set at land auctions are coming to a close, analysts say.

Signs of a slowdown, from weaker home price data to developers cutting prices, have already rattled financial markets in recent weeks. Real estate investment accounts for 15 percent of China's gross domestic product.

"Developers will be more rational when bidding for land this year, unlike the huge number of land kings we saw the year before," said Lin Bo, vice-research director at real estate information provider CRIC. "Considering the risks and costs, major developers are not willing to pay for premium land now."

Privately-owned China Vanke, the country's largest listed developer, said on Thursday that one of its operating strategies was to not be a land king.

"When there's a lot of people after a piece of land, we'd rather miss the land than buy wrong," said Tan Huajie, secretary of the board.

China Vanke has won 13 pieces of "premium land" in the country since 2008, making it the No 2 "land king" after state-backed Poly Real Estate Group, according to CRIC.

GOVERNMENT IMPACT

Any slump in prices paid at land auctions could also have an impact on China's indebted local governments, for whom such sales form a major portion of revenue. An average of 24 percent of local government revenue came from land sales in 2013, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance.

Chinese data last month showed that sale price rises eased for the first time in 14 months in January, in a sign that the government's more than four-year campaign to rein in property prices to avoid a bubble could finally be starting to bite.

This comes after a string of record-breaking prices being paid at government land auctions.

In September, Sunac China Holdings beat seven rivals to win a residential land plot near Beijing's eastern third ring road for 2.1 billion yuan ($342 million), the ceiling price set by local authorities.

A day later, Hong Kong-listed Sun Hung Kai Properties, Asia's most valuable developer, won a commercial plot in Shanghai for 21.8 billion yuan, a record high in the financial hub.

In a further sign that the market may be losing steam, some smaller developers have already said they won't compete for sites until market conditions improve. Private developers Yuzhou Properties and CIFI Holdings last month said land prices have become too expensive.

"When we see two signs emerge - government easing tightening and lower prices in the land market - then we will increase our land bank in Hangzhou again," CIFI Chairman Lin Zhong told a press conference last Wednesday, referring to a city about an hour from Shanghai.

Among the 10 developers that have won the most premium land since 2008, six are state-backed companies, according to CRIC. Topping the list are Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Land and Greenland Group.

Nearly 20 percent of property sold to land kings during that period remains unbuilt, while three percent of the deals were forfeited by developers due to financing issues after they paid deposits, it said.

With prices in first-tier cities expected to slow to single digit growth or stay flat this year, and private developers increasingly entering the market, the days of state-owned property companies bidding up for premium sites are expected to draw to a close.

"Fewer SOEs (state-owned enterprises) being land kings is in line with the central government's decision to let markets play a decisive role in the economy; they hope to lower the SOE's contribution to the economy and encourage private investment in construction," said Frank Chen, executive director of CBRE Research China.

由于冷却性政策的施行和对销售价格的打压，中国房地产商以破记录的出价争夺“黄金地”的日子即将接近尾声，结束了少数“地王”在中国全世界第二大经济实体的统治。

2009年政策刺激的作用下，房地产产业获得了大繁荣，用中国的话来形容当时的房地产商（当时大部分都是国有企业）就是，只要能弄到“土地银行”付出什么代价都可以。

越来越多的私人房地产公司开始在房地产业展露头角，去年年底打破了一系列的记录。

据巴黎银行称当超级市场的土地成本不断在增加，一些像北京和上海一样的一线城市的房价较前一年第三季度增长了高达135%，房地产的销售价格只是微升了15%。

专家分析现有的高成本和房地产销售增长速度的放缓意味着房地产拍卖记录一直被打破的日子即将结束。

房地产经济放缓的迹象，从保障性住房的价格数据到房地产商大削价，在最近几个星期内引起了金融市场的骚乱。房地产投资占了中国国内生产总值的15%。

中国房地产信息提供商CRIC市场调研副总监林勃说道：“今年房地产开发商竞标土地时会更理智，不会像去年一样看到那么多的“地王”，考虑到风险和成本，大多数的开发商都不愿意竞标“黄金土地”。”

中国私企房地产开发商万科，中国最大的上市房地产开发商，在星期三称其经营策略就是不要成为“地王”。

董事会的秘书谭华杰称：“当很多人追逐一块地的时候，我们宁愿错过也不愿买错。”

据CRIC数据显示从2008年开始，万科集团已经买了13块“黄金土地”，成为中国二号“地王”，仅次于有国家支撑的保利地产集团。

政府的影响

土地拍卖价格的丝毫下降也会对中国负债的政府造成巨大的影响，因土地的销售构成了政府税收的很大一部分。根据财政部数据显示，2013年地方政府的税收收入平均24%都是来源于土地销售。

上个月的数据显示于一月份土地销售价格十四个月来首次放缓了增长速度，表明政府四年多来控制房地产价格作出的努力开始奏效，以防泡沫经济的出现。

这些都发生在政府土地拍卖中，一系列的破纪录价格拍卖后。

九月，中国融创控股集团以21亿人民币的价格（当地政府定的最高价格）击败了七个竞争对手获得了北京三环路附近的住宅地。

一天后，香港上市公司新鸿基地产集团，亚洲最有竞争优势的房地产开发商，以218亿人民币的价格拿下了上海的一片商业用地，破金融中心的最高纪录。

更多的迹象显示房地产市场将会失去活力，一些小房地产开发商已经声明直到市场状况改善他们才会竞标土地。私人房地产开发商禹州地产和旭辉控股集团上个月都表示土地价格已经变得太贵了。

旭辉的董事长林忠上周三在一个资讯发布会上称当我们看到两种趋势时——政府放松紧缩政策和降低房地产市场的价格，我们才会再在杭州扩大我们的地产——指据上海一个小时路程的一个城市。

据CRIC数据显示，在从2008年开始手中有最多的“黄金土地”的10个房地产开发商中，6个都是国家支持。位居前三的分别为保利集团、海外发展有限公司和格林集团。

据称接近20%在房地产繁荣期间卖给地王的土地都还未建设，而由于他们付款后到来的经济危机，3%的交易被房地产开发商没收。

今年一线城市的土地价格有望持平或者只是个位数微升，再加上私人房地产开发商进入市场的数目的增加，国有房地产公司竞标“黄金土地”的日子有望接近尾声。

世邦魏理仕研究公司的执行董事长陈右升说道：“随着中央政府让市场在经济中起主导作用的政策的施行，越来越少的国有地产公司成为“地王”，政府希望能够削减国有地产公司对中国经济的贡献，并鼓励增加私人在建设中的投资。”