关于2020年，这些预测统统没有实现（上）

2020年已经到来，你对未来的设想已经实现了吗？在很多年以前，人们对未来有着无尽的畅想，有些看似脑洞大开，有些又为科技打开了灵感之门。一起来看看前人对2020年都有过哪些有趣的预测。

1 Human feet will become just one big toe.

人类的脚会只有一个大脚趾

So, what's going to happen to our feet—or, more specifically, our toes—in 2020? In a lecture at the Royal College of Surgeons of England in 1911, a surgeon by the name of Richard Clement Lucas made a curious prediction: that the "useless outer toes" will become used less and less, so that "man might become a one-toed race."

那么，到2020年，我们的脚，或者更具体地说，我们的脚趾会发生什么变化呢？1911年，在英国皇家外科学院的一次演讲中，一位名叫理查德·克莱门特·卢卡斯的外科医生做了一个奇怪的预测：“无用且靠外的脚趾”使用得将越来越少，因此“人类可能会变成只有一个脚趾的物种”。

2 We'll have ape chauffeurs.

猿猴司机上岗

In 1994, the RAND Corporation, a global think tank that's contributed to the space program and the development of the internet, said they expected us to have animal employees by the year 2020.

1994年，致力于空间项目和网络发展的全球智库兰德公司称，到2020年，人类会雇佣动物员工。

"The RAND panel mentioned that by the year 2020 it may be possible to breed intelligent species of animals, such as apes, that will be capable of performing manual labor," Glenn T. Seaborg wrote of the corporation's prediction in his book Scientist Speaks Out.

“兰德委员会提到，到2020年，可能会培育出能够从事体力劳动的类人猿等智能物种”，格伦·T·西博格在他的《科学家畅谈》一书中提到了该公司的这一预测。

"During the 21st century, those houses that don't have a robot in the broom closet could have a live-in ape to do the cleaning and gardening chores. Also, the use of well-trained apes as family chauffeurs might decrease the number of automobile accidents." Yikes, who's gonna tell them?

“在21世纪，那些没有机器人打扫的房子可能会有一只住家的类人猿来做清洁和园艺杂务。此外，使用训练有素的类人猿作为家庭司机可能会减少车祸的数量。”哎呀，谁来告诉他们（现在的情况）呢？

3 We'll live in flying houses.

会飞的房子

Inventor, science writer, and futurist Arthur C. Clarke—who co-wrote the screenplay for 2001: A Space Odyssey—believed that the boring houses of 1966 would be radically different by the time we reached the 21st century. Evidently, the houses of the future would have nothing keeping them on the ground and they would be able to move to anywhere on earth on a whim.

参与了《2001太空漫游》剧本撰写的发明家、科学作家、未来学家阿瑟·C·克拉克认为，当人类进入21世纪时，1966年那些乏味的房子将会完全不同。很明显，未来的房子不会被固定在地面上，它们可以随心所欲地移动到地球各地。

on a whim：一时兴起

Oh, and it wouldn't just be one home that would be able to relocate without the owner even needing to get out of bed and put on pants. "Whole communities may migrate south in the winter, or move to new lands whenever they feel the need for a change of scenery," Clarke promised. Up 2, anyone?

哦，搬家的时候主人不需要起床和穿裤子，但远不止这样。“整个社区可能会在冬天向南迁移，或者在居民想换换景观时搬到新的地方”，克拉克承诺说。像不像《飞屋环游记》的续集，朋友们？

4 And our houses will be cleaned by hoses.

水管冲洗房间

The New York Times' longtime science editor Waldemar Kaempffert, who worked for the paper from the 1920s through the 1950s, had lots of opinions about how different the world would be by the 21st century. In a 1950 Popular Mechanics article, titled "Miracles You'll See in the Next 50 Years," he predicted that by the 21st century, all you'll have to do to get your house clean is "simply turn the hose on everything."

《纽约时报》长期科学编辑瓦尔德玛·坎普费特从20世纪20年代到50年代一直在该报工作，他对21世纪的世界会有多大的不同有很多看法。在1950年发表在《大众机械》上的《未来50年你将看到的奇迹》一文中，他预测到21世纪，想要打扫房子，你只需要“打开所有的水龙头”。

That's because Kaempffert imagined furniture would be made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. "After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor (later concealed by a rug of synthetic fiber)," all you'd have to do is "turn on a blast of hot air" to dry everything.

这是因为坎普费特想象中的家具是由合成纤维或防水塑料制成的。“当水从地板中间的排水管里流出后（随后会被合成纤维地毯遮盖住）”，你所要做的就是“打开暖风”把室内吹干。

5 We'll eat candy made of underwear.

吃内衣做的糖果

In the same Popular Mechanics article, Kaempffert predicted that all food would be delivered to our homes in the form of frozen bricks by the 21st century. "Cooking as an art is only a memory in the minds of old people," he wrote. "A few die-hards still broil a chicken or roast a leg of lamb, but the experts have developed ways of deep-freezing partially baked cuts of meat." And, thanks to advances in culinary technology, Kaempffert predicted it would even be possible to take ordinary objects like old table linens and "rayon underwear" and bring them to "chemical factories to be converted into candy." No thanks!

在同一篇《大众机械》的文章中，坎普费特预测，到21世纪，所有的食物都将以冻冰块的形式送到我们的家中。他写道：“烹饪作为一门艺术，只是老年人的一种记忆。一些顽固分子仍在烤鸡或烤羊腿，但专家们已经发明了将部分烤制的肉块深度冷冻的方法。”坎普费特预测，由于烹饪技术的进步，人们甚至可以把旧桌布和“人造丝内衣”等普通物品带到“化工厂进行加工，改造成糖果”。还是算了吧！

die-hard['daihɑ:d]：n.死硬派，顽固分子

6 We'll have personal helicopters.

私人直升机普及

Forget jetpacks and flying cars. Popular Mechanics was pretty sure back in 1951 that every family in 21st century would have at least one helicopter in their garage.

忘掉喷气背包和飞车吧。《大众机械》在1951年非常确定21世纪每个家庭的车库里至少会有一架直升飞机。

"This simple, practical, foolproof personal helicopter coupe is big enough to carry two people and small enough to land on your lawn," they explained. "It has no carburetor to ice up, no ignition system to fall apart or misfire: instead, quiet, efficient ramjets keep the rotors moving, burning any kind of fuel from dime-a-gallon stove oil or kerosene up to aviation gasoline." Yes, but then, we'd imagine, your teenage son would ask to borrow the chopper, and you'd wake up the next day to discover your helicopter stuck in a tree. It's always something!

他们解释说：“这款简单、实用、使用简便的私人直升机轿跑车足够大，可以搭载两个人，也足够小，可以停在自家草坪上。它的化油器不会结冰，没有会散架或打不着火的点火系统：相反，安静、高效的冲压发动机使旋翼保持转动，燃烧从每加仑10美分的炉用油或煤油到航空汽油的任何燃料。”是的，但是，我们可以想象，你十几岁的儿子会向你借直升机，而你第二天醒来发现你的直升机卡在树上了。想想吧！

foolproof[ˈfuːlpruːf]：adj.使用简便的，完全可靠的

7 C, X, and Q will not be part of the alphabet.

C、X和Q从字母表删除

When you're curious about the future of language, you probably should ask someone other than an engineer about it. And yet, that's what Ladies' Home Journal did in 1900, asking John Elfreth Watkins Jr., the curator of mechanical technology at the Smithsonian Institution, for his educated guesses about the 21st century.

当你对语言的未来感到好奇时，你可能应该问问别人，而不是工程师。然而，《女性家庭杂志》在1900年就这么做了。杂志邀请了史密森尼学会机械技术策展人小约翰·埃尔弗里斯·沃特金斯，请他对21世纪做出有根据的猜测。

The man of science had no love for what he considered extraneous letters, and he boldly predicted that by the 2000s, "there will be no C, X, or Q in our everyday alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary." Instead, Watkins wrote, we'd be spelling mostly by sound and would only communicate with "condensed words expressing condensed ideas." So, in 2020, we may say to our friends, "Me happy good, hi!"

这位科学家对他所认为的外来字母毫无兴趣，他大胆地预测，到本世纪头十年，“我们日常使用的字母表中将不再有C、X或Q。它们会因为没有必要而被抛弃。”相反，沃特金斯写道，我们将主要通过声音拼写，只会用“表达扼要思想的缩合词汇”交流。所以，在2020年，我们可能会对朋友说，“我高兴，好，嗨！”

8 We will have both telepathy and teleportation.

心灵感应和瞬间移动

Michael J. O'Farrell, founder of The Mobile Institute, has been an expert in the technology industry since 1985. But even the experts can make mistakes. In the 2017 book Shift 2020, O'Farrell predicted that 2020 would be the dawn of the "nanomobility era."

移动研究所的创始人迈克尔·J·奥法雷尔自1985年以来一直是科技行业的专家。但即使是专家也会犯错。在2017年出版的《2020年的转变》一书中，奥法雷尔预测，2020年将是“纳米移动时代”的黎明。

"In the pending nanomobility era, I predict telepathy and teleportation will become possible by the year 2020—with both commonplace by 2040," he said. Well, we'll believe it when we see it.

他说：“在即将到来的纳米移动时代，我预计到2020年，心灵感应和瞬间移动将成为可能，到2040年，这两种技术都将普及。”好吧，梦想成真时我们就会相信。

telepathy [təˈlepəθi]：n.心灵感应；传心术

teleportation [ˌtelɪpɔːˈteɪʃn]：n.心灵传动；远距传动

9 All roads will become tubes.

气动管道送你出行

If you're sick of asphalt roads and all the potholes that come with them, then you'll wish Popular Mechanics was right about this prediction for the 21st century. In a 1957 article, the magazine predicted that every road and street in America will be "replaced by a network of pneumatic tubes," and your car would only need enough power to get from your home to the nearest tube. Then, by the calculations of a Honeywell engineer, "they will be pneumatically powered to any desired destination."

如果你厌倦了柏油路和随之而来的坑坑洼洼，那么你会希望《大众机械》对21世纪的预测是正确的。在1957年的一篇文章中，该杂志预测，美国的每条街道都将“被一个气动管道网络取代”，你的汽车只需要足够的动力就可以从你家开到最近的管道。然后，根据霍尼韦尔公司一位工程师的计算，“人们将通过气动动力到达任何想去的目的地”。

pneumatic [njuːˈmætɪk]：adj.气动的

10 Nobody will work and everybody will be rich.

大家都不用工作，每个人都有钱

In 1966, Time magazine reported that the 21st century would be a pretty awesome economic era for just about everybody. In an essay called "The Futurists," they predicted that "machines will be producing so much that everyone in the US will, in effect, be independently wealthy." Without even lifting a finger, the average non-working family could expect to earn an average salary of between $30,000 and $40,000, according to Time. That's in 1966 dollars, mind you; in 2020, that'd be about $300,000—for doing nothing. We wish!

1966年，《时代》杂志报道说，21世纪对几乎所有人来说都将是一个很棒的经济时代。他们在一篇名为《未来学家》的文章中预测，“机器产量如此之大，所有美国人实际上都能独立致富。”据《时代》杂志报道，一个普通的无工作家庭甚至不需要动一根指头，就能拿到3万美元（约合人民币20.8万元）到4万美元的平均工资。注意，那是1966年的美元，大约相当于2020年的30万美元。我们倒是希望呢！