美联储和欧洲央行光说不做 刺激方案难产

Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, with words but not yet actions, demonstrated this week that they are on red alert about the global economy.

贝南克(Ben Bernanke)和德拉吉(Mario Draghi)本周用言语表明，已经对全球经济形势保持全神戒备。不过两人尚未采取行动。

Expectations are now high that Mr. Bernanke's Federal Reserve and Mr. Draghi's European Central Bank will act soon to address those worries. But both face immense tactical and political challenges and neither has a handbook to follow.

市场对贝南克领导的美联储(Federal Reserve)和德拉吉领导的欧洲央行(European Central Bank)尽快采取行动化解担忧抱有很高的期望，但两人在战术和政治方面都面临着巨大挑战，且两人都没有既定的方法可以遵循。

The stakes are higher for Mr. Draghi. He is in his first year of an eight-year term as the ECB's leader, much of the euro area is in recession and the currency he oversees is imperiled─in part by fights among European politicians. Mr. Bernanke has only 17 months left before the end of his second four-year term, likely to be his last. The U.S. economy is growing, but too slowly to bring down high unemployment─and the elected politicians aren't offering much help either.

不过对德拉吉来说，其中涉及的利害关系更大。今年是他作为欧洲央行行长八年任期的头一年，而欧元区大部分成员国都处于经济衰退之中，德拉吉负责照管的欧元正处于危险之中，导致这一现状的部分原因在于欧洲政界人士之间的争斗。对贝南克来说，距第二个四年任期结束只有17个月的时间，这可能是他的最后一个任期。美国经济正在增长，但速度太慢，不足以拉低居高不下的失业率，在即将进行的大选中获选的政界人士也提供不了多少帮助。

Both appear to be on a path toward expanding their balance sheets with large-scale purchases of debt from private investors. They are also exploring innovative monetary tools now that they have driven short-term interest rates, once their primary lever, nearly as low as they can go.

两人看来都朝着扩大资产负债规模表的方向前行：美联储和欧洲央行都将从私人投资者手中大规模购买债务。鉴于两人已经几乎将短期利率（曾经是他们的主要政策杠杆）降至所能降到的最低水平，他们也要开始探索新的货币政策工具。

Many of today's central bankers are chastened because their efforts to drive the global economy out of recession haven't worked well.

如今很多央行行长感到挫败，因为他们试图让全球经济走出衰退的举措并没有产生什么效果。

'By normal standards and by what they would have expected a couple of years ago, they really pulled out all of the stops and now for the third year in a row it looks like the recovery hasn't got legs,' said economist John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute. 'They were confident they had a lot of tools to use, they used them and the results have not been very heartening.'

美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的经济学家梅金(John Makin)说，按正常标准以及几年前他们（央行行长）本应预见的情况来看，他们已经使尽了浑身解数，但看来在进入第三年时经济复苏还未企稳；他们过去信心满满地认为有很多政策工具可以动用，可使用之后结果并没有令人感到鼓舞。

Mr. Draghi and Mr. Bernanke face different economic challenges. If Mr. Bernanke buys more mortgage bonds, as many expect, he would be aiming to lower mortgage and other private-sector borrowing costs to help spur economic growth. He would also be hoping to give the stock market a boost. The U.S. government is borrowing heavily at record-low rates and doesn't need the Fed's help.

德拉吉和贝南克在经济上所面临的挑战不同。如果贝南克如很多人预期的那样买入更多抵押债券，那么他的目标是降低按揭成本和其它私营部门的借贷成本以刺激经济增长。他可能还希望推动股市上涨。美国政府正在以创纪录新低的利率水平大量借债，并不需要美联储的帮助。

Mr. Draghi, in contrast, is looking for a way to bring down the very high interest rates that the Spanish and Italian governments are paying─without letting politicians there off the hook for major economic and fiscal fixes that only they can manage.

相比之下，德拉吉正在寻找方法以压低西班牙和意大利政府所支付的超高利率，同时不让两国政界人士逃避责任。这两国的政界人士必须找出经济和财政问题的解决方案，也只有他们才能拿出这样的方案。

Mr. Bernanke is stuck with inconvenient timing: a national election that is three months away. Democrats are urging him to act─and quickly. Republicans are doing the opposite. If Mr. Bernanke moves at the Fed's Sept. 12-13 policy meeting, as many investors expect, he will surely be accused by Republicans of trying to goose the economy and markets to help President Barack Obama's re-election.

贝南克则苦于当下时机不利：三个月后美国就要举行大眩民主党人敦促他采取行动，而且要尽快，共和党人则相反。如果贝南克像许多投资者期待的那样，在9月12日至13日的美联储政策会议上拿出行动，共和党人必定会指责他刺激经济是为了帮助奥巴马获得连任。

As tough as U.S. politics are for the Fed, Mr. Draghi's are tougher. One taboo in economics is for a central bank to print money to finance government budget deficits, because doing so risks fueling fiscal profligacy and inflation. The ECB's charter forbids it and Germany's Bundesbank strongly opposes any move in that direction.

虽说美联储面临着政治上的严苛挑战，欧洲央行更是如此。央行通过印钱的方式减少政府预算赤字的做法在经济上是一个禁忌，因为这可能会加剧财政上的挥霍无度和通货膨胀。欧洲央行的章程禁止这种做法，德国央行也强烈反对在此方向上的任何行动。

Mr. Draghi's challenge is to preserve the euro without crossing the line into printing money to finance deficits. Both central bankers have already blurred those lines in their responses to financial crisis and recession. In this instance, Mr. Draghi is trying to emphasize that any ECB bond-buying would be aimed at maintaining financial stability and stable prices─not bailing anyone out. The solution he pointed to Thursday: The ECB will buy short-term government debt, but only after countries have asked for help from regional rescue programs that will come with strict conditions.

德拉吉面临的挑战是保持欧元的币值，不必越过红线以启动印钞机的方式应对赤字。这两名央行行长在应对财政危机和经济衰退时的做法已经模糊了红线的界限。在当前的状况下，德拉吉正试图努力强调，欧洲央行购买任何债券的行为都意在维持财政和物价的稳定，而不是为了对谁施以救助。德拉吉周四提出的解决办法是，欧洲央行将购买短期政府债券，但前提是这些国家已经向附加严格条件的地方救助计划申请帮助。

Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Draghi─both economists with doctorates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology─are in this position in part because they are among the only economic policy makers in their respective regions who are in a position to act.

贝南克和德拉吉都是拥有麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)博士学位的经济学家，他们陷入目前处境的部分原因是，二人在各自地区都是为数不多的有行动资格的经济政策制定者之一。

Mr. Obama and a divided Congress have failed to agree on a budget plan that might stimulate the U.S. economy in the short run and rein in deficits in the long run, as Mr. Bernanke has urged. European policy makers haven't been able to address deficits that investors see as unsustainable or to strengthen their weakened banking system.

奥巴马和意见分歧的国会未能就一项预算方案达成一致，该方案或许能在短期刺激美国经济，在长期遏制赤字，贝南克一直力主这一观点。欧洲的决策者没有能够解决赤字问题（投资者认为这种赤字水平是不可持续的），也没能强化已遭削弱的银行系统。

Amidst these and other challenges, the two men are moving cautiously. Investors were disappointed that they didn't pair their blunt talk with action. As stock markets sold off Wednesday and Thursday, the message that investors sent back to the two central bankers was clear: The public has doubts that strong words will turn into real solutions for two of the world's most important economic engines.

面对着上述以及其他挑战，两人都在谨慎行事。令投资者感到失望的是，两人掷地有声的言论并没有转化成行动。随着股市在周三和周四下跌，投资者向两位央行行长传递了明确的信息：公众怀疑世界上最重要的两个经济机构发出的强有力的语言未必能转化成实际的解决方案。

But the two are not alone. China's central bank, also with words, not actions, said Thursday that it would make stabilizing economic growth a higher priority amidst rising worries about a slowdown there, suggesting it, too, may soon take new measures to boost growth.

但是，面临这种状况的并非只有他们两个。同样光说不做的中国央行周四表示，由于对中国经济放缓的担忧正在不断增加，将把稳增长放在更重要的位置，同时暗示可能会很快采取新措施促进经济增长。