戴尔和惠普的如意算盘

Who’d be a PC maker? Not Dellor HP, clearly. Investors could be forgiven for thinking the market was dying based on their slumping sales. It is not, but it is changing. If the two US makers are not careful, their hoped-for graceful exit of this former cash cow could sour quickly.

谁愿做个人电脑(PC)的生产商？显然戴尔(Dell)和惠普(HP)不想。从个人电脑市场的疲弱销售看，投资者有理由认为这一市场正在消亡。其实，这个市场并未消亡，而是在发生变化。如果这两家美国制造商不小心，他们从这棵曾经的摇钱树华丽退出的愿望，可能会快速变味。

Both US companies this week blamed weakening economies. Dell sniffily dismissed its sliding market share as the result of not wanting to play in aggressively competitive “low value markets. But overall PC sales – desktop and laptop – have in fact been flat year-on-year, according to Gartner, leaving the biggest Asians – Lenovo, Acerand Asustek– to gain share. When Dell talked about low value, it had a point in that the wafer-thin operating margins earned by Lenovo and Acer (2 and 0.4 per cent respectively) do not match US thinking about what is a good business. HP’s 4.7 per cent – down a percentage point in the past year – looks positively plump. Small wonder both are hoping for improved markets for their high-end products. The danger is, however, that even a better economic mood does not do as much as they hope.

这两个美国公司上周都在责怪疲弱的经济。戴尔对其市场份额的下跌不以为意，归咎为其不愿参与“低价值市场激烈竞争的结果。但据技术行业研究公司Gartner称，个人电脑的整体销售（台式机和笔记本电脑）其实同比持平，这就让亚洲的巨擎们，如联想(Lenovo)、宏基(Acer)和华硕(Asustek)，赢得了更多市场份额。但戴尔所谓的“低价值也不无道理，联想和宏基微薄的营业利润率（分别为2%和0.4%）不符合美国对于好业务的标准。惠普4.7%的营业利润率（比去年下降了1个百分点）看起来丰厚得多。难怪这两家公司都希望其高端产品的市场好转。然而危险在于，即使经济环境更好，也不会带来他们所期盼的那种影响。

There are two reasons to think that a serious risk. Emerging markets, where entry-level products are more popular, are where the growth is. PC penetration in the emerging world is about a quarter, according to Bernstein, versus 90 per cent in developed countries. There is also far lower penetration in emerging market companies, at about half of PC-involved jobs against 90 per cent again in more mature markets. The other risk is that high-end customers are exactly those most likely to delay laptop replacements in favour of tablets.

有两个原因认为这是一个极大的风险。首先，新兴市场（在那里入门级产品往往更受欢迎）是增长所在。根据伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein)，个人电脑在新兴世界的普及率大约为四分之一，相比发达国家是90%。新兴市场企业的电脑普及率也低得多，电脑相关职业数量约为一半，而在更成熟的市场则也达90%。另一个风险是，高端客户恰恰是那些最有可能因偏好平板电脑而推迟更换笔记本电脑的客户。

The industry’s great hope is Windows 8, Microsoft’s new PC and tablet-friendly system. New touchscreen laptops are on their way to a store near you. But margins are unlikely to improve much, leaving this a cut-throat volume game – a speciality of Asian tech groups. Dell and HP could have to give up more margin than they would like to milk this business all the way to the exit.

赋予该行业很大希望的是Windows 8，微软(Microsoft)新的个人及平板电脑操作系统。新的触屏笔记本电脑正在运往您附近商店的途中。但利润率不会提高很多，让这成为一场你死我活的销售量竞赛——这是亚洲科技企业集团的专长。戴尔和惠普或许得在利润率上作出比他们所情愿的更大牺牲，才能维持这块业务直到退出。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析