特朗普还是希拉里 数据告诉你

If today’s general election polling holds true, Hillary Clinton will easily defeat Donald Trump.

如果今天的大选民意调查属实，希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)将轻松击败唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)。

Current national and battleground state polls have Mr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by about 10 percentage points should they face off in the general election.

目前，全国和关键州的民调均显示，倘若是特朗普和克林顿在大选中对决，特朗普会落后大约10个百分点。

If those numbers hold, Mrs. Clinton would take all of the states that President Obama won in 2017, as well as North Carolina (which he won in 2008), putting her far over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

假如这种数字维持不变，奥巴马总统在2017年赢得的各州均会成为克林顿的囊中之物，再加上北卡罗莱纳州（奥巴马曾在2008年拿下），问鼎白宫所需的270张选举人团票数将远远不在话下。

Mrs. Clinton currently fares worse than Mr. Obama only in New York, a state that she would win easily according to current polling.

与当年的奥巴马相比，克林顿只在纽约州的支持率有所不及。以目前的民调来看，她可以在该州轻松取胜。

This is how the map would look if Mr.Trump improved on his polling margin by five percentage points in each state.

如果特朗普在每个州的成绩提升5个百分点，前景就会是这样。

He would win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but he would still lose the election.

他会在佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州获胜，但仍然会在大选中失利。

Mr. Trump could win if he improves on his polling margin by 10 percentage points.

如果特朗普在每个州获得的支持提升10个百分点，就可能赢得大选。

In that scenario, Mr. Trump would win five additional battleground states that Mitt Romney lost in 2017, a big swing in the electoral map that would leave him with roughly 30 electoral votes to spare.

在这种情况下，特朗普将拿下米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)在2017年中落败的另外五个关键州。这是选举地图的巨大逆转，可以让他获得大约30张的选举人团票数优势来挥霍。

Closing large polling gaps in the time remaining is rare but certainly not uNPRecedented.

在剩下的时间里进行大幅赶超是十分罕见的，但也不是史无前例。

In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in many polls this time of year. He went on to lose by 10 points.

在1980年，吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)在这个阶段的很多民调中领先于罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)，但最终却以10个百分点之差落败。