囧研究：不吃早饭真的会长胖吗？！

The widely accepted notion that skipping breakfast might cause weight gain entered the Dietary Guidelines in 2010. However, it is based on scientific speculation, not certainty. Indeed, it may be completely unfounded, as an experiment in New York indicated.

不吃早餐可能会长胖为人们普遍接受。这一观念也被写进了2010年版的《膳食指南》。然而，它却是基于科学猜测，并非出于定论。的确，纽约进行的一则实验表明，这个观念也许能被全盘推翻。

“In overweight individuals, skipping breakfast daily for 4 weeks leads to a reduction in body weight,” the researchers from Columbia University concluded in a paper published last year.

来自哥伦比亚大学的研究员们在去年发表的一篇论文中表示：“对于过重的人们而言，四周内每天不吃早餐能减少体重。”

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee explained that in previous years, researchers generally conducted observational studies, in support of the notion that skipping breakfast might make one fat. Although this method is cheaper and easier to carry out, its weaknesses can lead scientists astray.

膳食指南咨询委员会解释道，前些年研究员们为了印证不吃早餐也许会使人长胖的观念，通常采取观测研究。尽管这种研究方法更廉价、更容易实行，但它存在的缺点却让科学家们的研究方向走偏。

One of the primary troubles is confounders, which can lead researchers to make mistaken assumptions about causes. For example, suppose breakfast skippers have a personality trait that makes them more likely to gain weight than breakfast eaters. If that’s the case, it may look as if skipping breakfast causes weight gain even though the cause is the personality trait.

混淆因素是主要问题之一，它们能让研究人员们对原因做出错误的猜想。举个例，倘若不吃早餐者更容易增重是源于其性格。如果情况便是如此，那么事实也许看起来是不吃早餐导致人增重，即使罪魁祸首是性格特征。

In analyzing the results of observational studies, scientists make statistical adjustments to minimize the potential confounding factors that they can measure — age, alcohol consumption, exercise, employment, and the like. But the adjustments are imprecise, and there is no guarantee that the groups are not different in some other unmeasured way. Because of those weaknesses, many scientists prefer randomized controlled trials, which they often say provides the "gold standard" in evidence.

在分析观测试验的结果时，科学家们会对数据进行调整，力图减少他们所能测量到的潜在混淆因素，像是年龄、酒精消耗量、锻炼、就业率等。但这些调整是不精确的，而且也没人能保证这样分组在其他某种未经测量的角度来看是一致的。因为这些不足，许多科学家们更倾向于做随机控制实验。他们总称这种实验方式能提供黄金标准作为证据。

When in the coming months the government unveils the 2017 Dietary Guidelines, it is unclear the advice on breakfast and weight gain will be included. The 2017 advisory committee issued a report that steered clear of the subject of skipping breakfast and weight.

在未来的几个月内，美国政府要公布2017年的《膳食指南》，人们尚不知关于早餐和体重增加的建议是否会被纳入其中。2017年的咨询委员会发布的这份报告绕开了不吃早餐和体重这个主题。

President of Millennium Prevention, a life sciences start-up company, and chair of the 2017 advisory committee, Barbara Millen said, “The sentiment was we don’t have to say anything further about it. We didn’t want to focus on a laundry list of foods and meals. We were focusing on overall dietary patterns.”

生物科学创业公司（Millennium Prevention）总裁兼2017年咨询委员会主席芭芭拉·米伦称：“我认为不吃早餐和体重之间的关系探讨并不是头号问题，我的观点是我们不需要再对它进一步讨论。我们不想要将重点放在食物和餐饮的细目清单上，我们的重心在整体的膳食模式。”