中国央行降息意在安抚股市与市场

China’s roller-coaster stocks will again be under thespotlight after the central bank cut benchmarkinterest rates to a record low at the weekend, amove interpreted by analysts as an attempt totemper last week’s market meltdown.

中国过山车般的股市将再度受到密切关注，因为中国央行在刚刚过去的周末将基准利率降至历史新低，此举被分析师们解读为试图缓和上周的市场大跌。

The Shanghai Composite sank 7.4 per cent onFriday, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off thetotal market capitalisation of the index. The markethas reversed 18.8 per cent from its June 12 high, although it is still up almost 30 per cent inthe year to date.

上证综指(Shanghai Composite)上周五下挫7.4%，抹去该指数成份股公司共计几千亿美元的市值。与6月12日达到的高点相比，上证综指已下跌18.8%，但今年迄今仍上涨近30%。

The People’s Bank of China appeared to respond on Saturday, when it cut the one-year lendingrate by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent — its fourth cut since November — and lowered theamount of reserves certain banks are required to hold by 50 basis points.

中国人民银行(PBoC)上周六似乎是在对此采取对策，下调一年期贷款利率25个基点，至4.85%(这是自去年11月以来的第四次降息)，同时针对某些银行下调存款准备金率50个基点。

“In China, a rate cut or a cut in the reserve requirement ratio is about signalling, says LarryHu, head of China economics at Macquarie. “The signal is mostly to boost confidence. Whenthe PBOC cuts interest rates or RRR it suggests China is in an easing cycle, that is veryimportant. It will inject a lot of confidence in the stock market.

“在中国，降息或降准的意义在于发出信号，麦格理(Macquarie)中国经济研究主管胡伟俊(Larry Hu)表示。“这个信号主要是提振信心。中国央行削减利率或存款准备金率，说明中国处于宽松周期，这是非常重要的。它会给股市注入大量信心。

China’s stock market is widely seen as driven by policy at least as much as companyfundamentals. The perception that the latest rate cut is a hasty response to Friday’scorrection risks undermining the credibility of previous official statements that thegovernment should focus on structural reforms and avoid trying to influence the market.

中国股市被广泛视为受到政策推动，政策的重要性至少不逊于公司的基本面。人们现在的印象是，最新降息举措是对上周五股市回落的仓促回应。这种看法有可能削弱之前官方声明的可信度;那些声明称，政府应当着眼于结构性改革，避免试图影响市场。

The one-year deposit rate will similarly be lowered b 25 basis, to 2 per cent.

金融机构一年期存款利率同样下调25个基点，至2%。

“This is the best time for them to cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratios, saidShen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities. “If they had not acted, on Mondaythere would have been real panic.

“这是他们降息降准的最佳时机，瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)首席亚洲经济学家沈建光表示。“如果他们不采取行动，周一就会出现真正的恐慌。

More than two-thirds of the companies listed in Shanghai hit their daily downward limit of 10 percent on Friday. Some of the biggest stocks saw billions of dollars knocked off their value, withChina Life Insurance shedding 7.5 per cent, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen market dropped 7.9per cent. Mr Shen added that real interest rates in China remained very high and investmentcontinued to decline but the PBOC could not move before this because of the stock marketbubble.

上周五在上海股市，逾三分之二股票跌停，即触及10%的单日跌幅上限。一些最大的个股市值蒸发数十亿美元，其中中国人寿(China Life Insurance)下跌7.5%，同时以科技股为主的深圳股市下跌7.9%。沈建光补充说，中国的实际利率仍然很高，投资继续下降，但央行此前由于股市泡沫而不能采取行动。

“The rate cut is a necessary step in the right direction, said Wang Tao, China chief economistat UBS. “Real lending rates are still significantly higher than a year ago. High real rates [coupledwith] a weak economy with deflationary pressures means a heavy debt service burden on thereal economy, both the corporate sector and local governments.

“此次降息是朝着正确方向迈出的必要步骤，瑞银(UBS)中国首席经济学家汪涛表示。“实际贷款利率仍显著高于一年前水平。偏高的实际利率(加上)存在通缩压力的疲弱经济意味着，实体经济——无论是企业还是地方政府——背负着沉重的偿债负担。

Mr Shen said he expected the government also to continue tightening up on margin finance,which helped fuel the recent stock market rally. A week ago the regulator took fresh steps totame the growth of margin lending, which some say contributed to last week’s marketvolatility.

瑞穗的沈建光表示，他预计政府还将继续收紧股市的融资交易规定;此类操作帮助推动了近期股市涨势。一周前，监管机构采取新措施遏制保证金贷款的增长;一些人表示，这些融资加剧了上周的市场波动。

Beijing has set a growth target of about 7 per cent for 2015, which would be the slowestannual expansion since 1990. However, policy makers want to avoid an abrupt slowdown thatcould cause unemployment to spike and trigger a wave of defaults.

北京方面已为2015年设定7%左右的增长目标，这将是自1990年以来最慢的全年增速。不过，政策制定者希望避免突然的放缓，以免造成失业激增，同时引发一波违约潮。