欧元区须警惕德国一意孤行

It was the first time that an act of crisis resolution in the eurozone did not undershoot expectations. By agreeing an unlimited bond purchasing programme, and by abandoning the privilege of senior creditor status, the European Central Bank has demonstrated that it is the only functional institution left in the European Union. A rescue of the eurozone is inconceivable without the help of the ECB.

在历次欧元区危机应对行动中，当前行动第一次没有辜负期待。欧洲央行(ECB)通过一项无限制购买债券的计划，并放弃自身优先债权人的地位，这表明它是欧盟(EU)之中唯一发挥职能的机构了。若没有欧洲央行的帮助，为欧元区纾困是不可想象的。

This achievement became possible because the majority on the ECB’s governing council outvoted the representative of the Bundesbank. With his No vote, Jens Weidmann has isolated himself among his peers. We no longer have a conflict between the north and the south, but between Germany and the rest.

上述计划之所以成为可能，是因为欧洲央行管理委员会以多数投票击败了德国央行(Bundesbank)代表延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)的主张。魏德曼对上述计划投了反对票，使自己在管理委员会中受到了孤立。现在，北部欧洲和南部欧洲不再有冲突，德国与其他国家之间却产生了冲突。

It should be no cause of glee, let alone joy, because German isolation is about the last thing the eurozone needs. The day after the ECB’s decision, the German media eulogised Mr Weidmann for fighting against the infidels in the ECB. The consensus view among German commentators is that the ECB has lost its independence; that the German taxpayer will foot the bill; and that hyperinflation is around the corner. One commentator was appalled by the fact that Mario Draghi was ready to save the euro at any cost.

我们没有理由感到欣喜，更不应该感到大快人心，因为德国被孤立是欧元区最不希望出现的事情。在欧洲央行通过债券购买计划的第二天，德国媒体高度赞扬了魏德曼与欧洲央行里“异教徒的抗争。德国评论界一致认为，欧洲央行已失去了独立性；德国纳税人将为此买单；恶性通胀即将到来。一位评论人士对马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)打算不惜一切代价拯救欧元感到震惊。

A poll published last week had 53 per cent of all Germans hoping that their Constitutional Court would block the European Stability Mechanism – and risk utter chaos. Even the parliamentary floor leader of the pro-European Green party is concerned about the huge fiscal transfers that lie ahead. Mr Weidmann may have isolated himself in the governing council, but not in his country. When he says that bond purchases border on an illegal act of debt monetising, he is expressing a consensus view among German economists, lawyers and politicians.

上周发布的一项民意调查显示，有53%的德国人希望该国宪法法院阻止欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)的通过，这会引发极度混乱。甚至亲欧洲的绿党(Green party)的议会领袖都对未来的巨额财政转移感到忧心忡忡。魏德曼或许在欧洲央行管理委员会中孤立了自己，在德国却未受孤立。当他表示购买债券几乎等同于债务货币化的非法行为时，他所表达的是德国经济学家、律师和政界人士的共同看法。

When debates shift, one often observes that the losing side becomes pseudo-pragmatic. I am seeing more and more pro-European Germans effectively embracing the eurosceptic narrative. They say that eurobonds and joint deposit insurance are politically impractical in the current climate, and are instead searching for implausible second-best solutions. A good example has been the proposal by the Council of Economic Advisers of a jointly guaranteed debt redemption bond – a debt instrument that looks like a eurobond on the outside, but is an austerity tool deep down.

当辩论发生改变时，我们经常观察到失利一方会变得假装务实起来。我看到，越来越多亲欧洲的德国人实际上开始接受欧洲怀疑论。他们表示，欧元区共同债券(eurobond)和联合存款保险计划在当前气候下不具备政治可行性，然后他们努力寻找一些让人难以信服的次优方案。德国经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)提出发行联合担保的“偿债债券(debt redemption bond)，就是一个很好的例子。该债券从外表看上去像是欧元区债券，但在本质上是一种紧缩工具。

Perhaps the most depressing aspect of this situation is that Mr Draghi’s success last week may end up producing a weaker macroeconomic policy response overall. Having isolated Mr Weidmann over bond purchases, Mr Draghi cannot afford to repeat this act when it comes to the general conduct of monetary policy. I suspect that the ECB may now be less inclined to cut interest rates further, and more inclined to raise them at the first false dawn of economic recovery. I only hope I am wrong on this because it would be a disaster. As I argued last week, I am also not optimistic on the other critical component of a crisis resolution strategy – a banking union that can act as an indirect economic transfer mechanism to insure against the risk of persistent internal imbalances.

或许这种局面最令人沮丧之处在于，德拉吉在上周取得的成功，可能最终削弱欧洲央行的整体宏观经济政策力度。德拉吉虽在购买债券议题上孤立了魏德曼，却不能在宏观货币政策行动上也这么做。我怀疑，欧洲央行现在可能不愿进一步降息，而是更倾向于在看到第一缕经济复苏的“虚幻曙光时便提高利率。我只希望自己的推测是错误的，因为那将是一场灾难。正如我上周所说，我也并不看好危机解决策略的另一个关键组成部分——银行业联盟，一种可以用来防范持续内部失衡风险的间接经济转移机制。

The German revolt is thus deeply troubling. The problem is not Angela Merkel, who has taken a neutral position in the Draghi v Weidmann contest. The problem is a shift in public opinion. The German public has bought into the narrative that the crisis was caused by profligate southern European politicians and consumers, who had wasted the first decade of their membership of the eurozone indulging in a debt-financed housing and consumption boom. It is a false morality tale – mostly devoid of economic reasoning. But this has not stopped it from becoming the dominant narrative. Not enough politicians, certainly not enough journalists and commentators, are pushing against this narrative. Ms Merkel’s single biggest error in her management of the crisis was her failure to get this narrative under control, or establish a narrative of her own. With her famous red lines on eurozone bonds and deposit insurance, she even ended up reinforcing the narrative.

因此，德国的一意孤行会带来很大的麻烦。问题不在安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)身上，她本人在德拉吉和魏德曼的对立中采取了中立态度。问题在于舆论的转变。德国公众已认同了一种观点，即这场危机的罪魁祸首是南部欧洲挥霍无度的政客和消费者，他们沉迷于一场债务支持的房地产和消费热潮，荒废了加入欧元区后的第一个十年。这是一个错误的道德论断——主要是在经济上站不住脚。但这没有妨碍它成为占主导地位的观点。没有足够多的政界人士——当然也没有足够多的记者和评论人士——大力驳斥过这一观点。默克尔在危机管理中犯下的最大错误就是未能控制这一观点的蔓延，或推出自己的观点。她坚决反对欧元区债券和存款保险的态度，甚至强化了这个观点。

The same narrative will almost certainly have influenced the German Constitutional Court, which is due to announce its ruling on the ESM on Wednesday. Mr Weidmann also gave a very critical assessment of the ESM in his deposition to the court in July. I would caution readers not to take the court’s decision for granted. While I do not have the foggiest idea what the court will say, I am certain the ruling will not be based on, or even influenced by, fears of a negative market reaction, as so many commentators keep insisting it will be.

该观点几乎肯定会影响到德国宪法法院，该法院将在周三宣布关于欧洲稳定机制的裁决。在7月呈递宪法法院的一份证词中，魏德曼也对欧洲稳定机制给出了非常关键的意见。我要提醒读者，不能理所当然地以为宪法法院将如何裁决。虽然我丝毫不清楚法院会怎么说，但我可以肯定，法院将不会像那么多评论人士坚持认为的那样，出于对负面市场反应的担忧、或者在这种担忧的影响之下而做出裁决。

Mr Weidmann is a pivotal figure in all these debates. He has become the effective leader of the opposition to the current European consensus on a policy response to the crisis. On Thursday, he lost a battle in the ECB’s governing council. But this was a battle he was never going to win. My sense is that he is winning the overall debate – a victory the eurozone is unlikely to survive in one piece.

魏德曼在所有这些辩论中都堪称是一位举足轻重的人物。在反对当前欧洲危机应对政策共识的人士当中，他已成为实际上的领袖。上周四，他在欧洲央行管理委员会中败下阵来。但是，那本是一场他永远不可能获胜的战斗。我认为，魏德曼将赢得总体辩论的胜利——他胜利之后，欧元区将无法完好无损地逃脱厄运。