美银行信用卡贷款激增引发担忧

US banks have ramped up lending to consumers through credit cards and overdrafts at the fastest pace since 2007, triggering concerns that they are taking on too much risk in a slowing economy.

美国的银行正以2007年以来最快的速度通过信用卡和透支扩大消费信贷，这令外界担心它们在放缓的经济中承担太多风险。The industry has piled on about $18bn of card loans and other types of revolving credit within just three months, as consumers borrow more and banks battle for customers with air miles, cashback deals and other offers.

在短短3个月里，该行业已累积约180亿美元的信用卡贷款和其他形式的循环贷款，因消费者增加了借债，同时银行通过奖励飞机里程、返现和其他优惠争夺客户。

The surge in lending has come as economists expect the US election to create sufficient uncertainty to impede growth for the rest of the year, increasing the stakes for lenders at a time when the credit cycle appears to have passed a peak.

在贷款飙升之际，经济学家预测，美国大选将产生巨大不确定性，会阻碍今年剩余时间的经济增长，这将在信贷周期似乎已过波峰之际加大银行的风险。

Recently disclosed second-quarter results showed that credit card loans increased 10 per cent year-on-year at Wells Fargo, 12 per cent at Citigroup and 16 per cent at US Bank, according to Deutsche Bank research. Expansion was an especially aggressive 26 per cent at SunTrust, the $200bn Atlanta-based lender.

根据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的研究，最近披露的第二季度财报显示，富国银行(Wells Fargo)、花旗集团(Citigroup)和美国合众银行(US Bank)的信用卡贷款分别同比增长10%、12%和16%。总部设在亚特兰大、资产规模为2000亿美元的太阳信托银行(SunTrust)的信用卡贷款增速尤为迅猛，高达26%。

Across the US banking industry, credit card and other revolving loans rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.6 per cent in the second quarter to $685bn, according to Federal Reserve data.

根据美联储(Fed)的数据，今年第二季度整个美国银行业信用卡和其他循环贷款增至6850亿美元，经季节调整的年化增长率为7.6%。

The credit card business remains among the most profitable in banking. Lenders can charge much higher interest rates — the US average is between 12 and 14 per cent — than for other types of credit, and borrower delinquencies are still low by historical standards.

信用卡业务仍是银行业盈利最高的业务。银行可以收取比其他类型贷款高得多的利息，美国平均为12%至14%，同时借款者拖欠贷款的行为仍处于历史低位。

However, there are some early indications that the cycle is beginning to turn.

然而，一些早期迹象表明，信贷周期正开始转向。

“In the present environment it’s probably a safe strategy, but as we saw with housing in 07/08 that environment can change very rapidly,” said Nancy Bush, banking analyst at Georgia-based NAB Research. “They need to be very careful.”

“在当前环境下，这可能是一种安全策略，但就像我们在2007年至2008年的住房市场看到的那样，环境可能会迅速发生变化，”总部位于佐治亚州的NAB Research的银行业分析师南希•布什(Nancy Bush)表示，“他们需要非常谨慎。”

Bob Hammer, the veteran credit-card consultant, said: “Times are pretty good right now, but it’s questionable how long it’s going to last”.

资深信用卡咨询顾问鲍勃•汉莫(Bob Hammer)表示：“现在形势非常好，但这将持续多长时间仍存在疑问。”

Synchrony Financial, the largest supplier of store-branded cards in the US, sent a shudder through the sector in June when it increased its forecast for credit losses.

今年6月，美国最大商店信用卡供应商Synchrony Financial上调了其信用卡损失预期，这令整个行业为之一颤。

Several banks have since disclosed that they have boosted reserves for losses, although executives said this largely reflected expansion of their businesses rather than a deterioration in credit quality.

此后多家银行公布，它们已增加损失准备金，不过高管们表示，这主要反映了业务的扩张，而非信贷质量的恶化。

Capital One added $375m to its loan loss reserve for its domestic card business, according to Barclays, while JPMorgan Chase added a $250m loss allowance for its credit-card portfolio.

根据巴克莱(Barclays)的数据，Capital One将国内卡业务的贷款损失准备金增加了3.75亿美元，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)为其信用卡业务增加了2.50亿美元的损失准备金。

The largest US bank by assets has expanded in the past two or three years into what Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase chief financial officer, described as the “near prime space” — in essence, customers with lower credit scores.

摩根大通是美国资产排名第一的银行，过去两三年已将业务拓展到其首席财务官玛丽安•雷克(Marianne Lake)所说的“次优空间”，即信贷评分较低的客户。

Executives say that the lending push is justified as the consumers they target are in good financial shape, pointing to rising house prices and low unemployment.

高管们表示，这种贷款加快的势头是合理的，因为他们瞄准的客户处于良好的财务状况，房地产价格在上涨而失业率较低。

“We’re growing our direct consumer lending portfolio at a very rapid pace,” said William Rogers, chairman and chief executive of SunTrust. “That is indeed helping to mitigate the effect of [pressure on profit margins] overall.”

“我们正以非常快的速度扩大我们的直接消费贷款业务，”太阳信托董事长兼首席执行官威廉•罗杰斯(William Rogers)表示，“这确实有利于减弱总体利润率压力。”