专栏：下任总统，祝你好运

The presidential election is heading down to the wire. With three weeks to go, the polls show Mitt Romney and Barack Obama within a few points. The swing states are in play. Somewhere close to $2 billion will be spent in total on the final outcome.

再过两周，美国总统选举将迎来最后时刻。民调显示，罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)和奥巴马(Barack Obama)目前的差距仅有数个百分点。几个摇摆州将备受关注。到最终结果出炉,这次总统大选总计将花费近20亿美元。

It's time to look ahead. What sort of agenda will the winner inherit? How will he deal with a bitterly divided and partisan political system, a weak recovery, and a raft of pressing crises at home and abroad?

是时候向前看了。胜选者将面临什么样的局面？他将如何应对党派分歧严重的政治体系、步履蹒跚的经济复苏以及一系列迫在眉睫的国内外危机？

Here's what the email from his chief economic adviser might look like on Nov. 7.

11月7日当天，他很可能会从首席经济顾问那里收到这样一封邮件。

Dear Mr. President/President-Elect,

总统/候任总统先生:

Congratulations on your victory. I'm sorry to butt in on your celebrations, but you asked for a summary of the economic problems ahead. I'm afraid you face five major ones.

祝贺你赢得了选举。很抱歉打扰了你们的庆祝，但之前你说想要一份当前经济问题的总结，现在我把它交给你了。我想，恐怕你将面临以下五大问题。

1. The fiscal cliff

1、财政悬崖

On Dec. 31 the U.S. federal government is going to hit a potentially disastrous so-called fiscal cliff. Under current law, taxes are set to jump and spending will be cut. This is partly due to the planned expiration of the Bush-era and other tax cuts and partly to spending cuts agreed to last year.

2012年12月31日，美国联邦政府可能遭遇一场被称为“财政悬崖的灾难。根据现行法律，税收将大幅增加，开支会减少。部分原因是布什政府时期制定的减税措施和其他一些减税措施按计划将到期，还有部分原因是去年达成的减支方案。

This must not be allowed to happen. The International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and most economists agree that the net effect of this sharp budget tightening, at a time when the economy is weak, could tip the U.S. economy back into recession.

但你决不能允许这样的情况发生。国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, 简称:IMF)、国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)和大部分经济学家都认为，在美国经济不景气的当口，严厉财政紧缩措施的净效应会使经济重陷衰退。

Middle-class taxpayers would see a big jump in tax bills. Andrew Smithers, a financial consultant in London who called the last two financial crises, suspects it could also tank the stock market.

中产阶级纳税人的纳税额将大幅上涨。曾预言过前两次金融危机的伦敦经济咨询师史密瑟斯(Andrew Smithers)估计，严厉的财政紧缩措施还会使股票市场受到重创。

Yet something must be done. Clearly, $1 trillion-plus budget deficits cannot go on indefinitely. And Congress is likely to demand some form of deal as the price for approving yet another increase to the debt ceiling early next year. We need that agreement, or you will be the first president in history to default on Treasury bonds.

但有些事情你却不得不做。显然，逾一万亿美元的财政赤字是不可持续的。如果明年年初你想让再次提高债务上限的提案获得通过，国会很可能要求你以某种形式的交易作为代价。我们需要提高债务上限，否则你将会成为美国历史上第一位长期国债违约的总统。

2. Jobs

2、就业

According to the Labor Department, about 15% of the workforce, or one worker in seven, is either unemployed or stuck working part-time because he or she can't get full-time work. And 23% of prime working-age men - about 14 million ages 25 to 54 - lack a full-time job. Think about the lost output in the economy - and lost taxes to the government.

据劳工部(Labor Department)称，约15%的劳动力因为找不到全职工作要么处于失业状态，要么就只能打零工，也就是说，每七个劳动力中就有一个这样的人。约23%处于最佳就业年龄段的男性──即约1,400万名年龄在25岁至54岁之间的男性──没有全职工作。想想吧，有多少经济产出和政府税收因此而丧失。

This has been a recession like no other since World War II. Yes, the U.S. has recovered faster than many of our overseas competitors. And, yes, the private sector has been hiring at a reasonable clip lately - about 145,000 new jobs a month so far this year.

这次的经济衰退 是二战以来最严重的。没错，我们比许多海外竞争者复苏得更快。没错，私营部门的就业率最近一直以可观的速度增长，年初迄今平均每月新增约145,000个岗位。

Over the last four years, the U.S. government has thrown billions and billions of borrowed money, and billions more of printed money, at the economy. Yet according to a recent study by the Associated Press, this has been the weakest recovery since the War.

过去四年中，美国政府将数十亿借来的钱和几十亿印出来的钱扔进经济体系当中，但据美联社(Associated Press)最近的一项研究显示，此次经济复苏是二战以来最乏力的。

The public has just elected you to sustain a jobs recovery in these circumstances. And the public is looking for you to bring the estimated five million long-term unemployed back into the economy.

民众刚挑选了你，期待你能在目前的经济环境中维持就业增长，并希望你能让长期失业者──据估计约有500万──重回工作岗位。

3. Retirement

3、退休

If you think the jobs crisis is bad, look at the looming retirement crisis.

如果你觉得就业危机已经很糟糕了，那么看看正在逼近的退休危机吧。

Social Security and Medicare, most agree, are on unsustainable fiscal ground. Taxes will have to be raised, and spending reined in, to ensure the systems stay solvent. This is a major item on your to-do list.

美国社会保障体系和联邦医疗保险在财政上具有不可持续性，大部分人都同意这点。因此政府不得不提高税收，控制支出，确保这两者不至于债台高筑到无力偿还的地步。这是你“待办事项清单上的一个主要项目。

But here's the problem. There's only so much you can cut, because 80 million baby boomers are starting to retire─and very few of them are prepared. According to the latest survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, an independent think tank, 'a sizable percentage of workers have virtually no money in savings and investments.'

但问题是，你能削减的支出也就那么多。因为8,000万婴儿潮时期出生的人即将进入退休年龄，而他们中做好了退休准备的人寥寥无几。据独立智库雇员福利研究中心(Employee Benefit Research Institute)最新的调查显示，有相当一部分的劳动者几乎没有任何存款或投资。

Sixty percent of all workers surveyed have less than $25,000 in savings and investments, and 30% have less than $1,000. The figures for boomers - those over 45 - are better, but not by a lot.

接受调查的所有劳动者中，60%的人存款和投资不足25,000美元，30%的人不足1,000美元。那些婴儿潮一代人，也就是45岁以上的人，他们的情况要好一些，但也好不了多少。

To put this in context, $25,000 will buy a retired couple an annuity of only about $118 a month. Add that to an average Social Security check of $1,230 a month, and you are potentially looking at mass poverty among the elderly.

联系眼前的现实，25,000美元意味着一对退休夫妇每月只能拿到约118美元的养老金。加上平均每月1,230美元的社保金，不难得出这样一个结论，那就是很大一部分老年人都将生活在贫困之中。

4. Debt

4、债务

You've probably heard that Americans have been paying down debts and shoring up their balance sheets. You've probably heard that corporations are meanwhile sitting on a ton of cash. It all sounds promising.

你很可能已经听说，美国人一直在偿还债务，改善他们的资产负债表。你也很可能听说了，美国公司坐拥大笔现金。这一切听起来让人觉得充满了希望。

The trouble is that it's mostly a mirage.

但问题是，这基本只不过是海市蜃楼而已。

According to the Federal Reserve, total household debts have fallen 6% from their peak at the top of the bubble. They are higher today than they were at the end of 2006.

美联储(Federal Reserve)称，家庭债务总额已从泡沫最严重时的顶点下降了6%。但目前这一额度依然高于2006年年末时的水平。

Meanwhile, 'cash-rich' U.S. corporations have borrowed an extra $1.1 trillion just since 2007, and their total debts now stand at a record $8.2 trillion.

同时，“坐拥大笔现金的美国公司自2007年来已经又借了1.1万亿美元。目前它们的总负债额已达创纪录的8.2万亿美元。

Throw in U.S. government debts, and you have a system that in total owes $39 trillion - an unprecedented two and a half times gross domestic product. This poses serious risks, including weak growth and even another financial crisis.

加上美国政府的债务，在你手里的是一个总共欠债39万亿美元的经济体系──这一规模空前的债务额是美国国内生产总值的2.5倍。这里面蕴藏着巨大的风险，包括经济增长乏力，甚至还有可能再来一场金融危机。

5. China

5、中国

In the short term, you face the risks of a 'hard landing' for the Chinese economy. For the last few years, it has been a major engine of the global economy. In the coming months, many on Wall Street worry, that may be interrupted as China switches from an economy dominated by infrastructure spending to one with more consumer spending.

短期而言，你面临着中国经济“硬着陆的风险。过去这几年，中国一直是全球经济的一个主要引擎。但是，中国正在从一个靠基础设施建设拉动的经济体向靠内需拉动的经济体转型。华尔街的许多人士担心，未来数月，这种情形很可能因为转型而中断。

In the longer term, every president since Ulysses S. Grant has presided over an America that had the biggest economy in the world. You will probably be the last.

长期来看，自格兰特(Ulysses S. Grant)就任总统以来，美国一直是全球最大的经济体。不过你可能是最后一位看到这种情形的美国总统了。

Based on International Monetary Fund data, China's real output is set to hit $20.2 trillion by 2017, surpassing $19.7 trillion in the U.S. And China is still seeing faster long-term growth than the mature U.S. economy. The gap will widen year after year. Our share of global output, which was 24% in 2000, will by 2017 be down to 18% - and falling.

IMF的数据显示，中国的实际产出将在2017年达到20.2万亿美元，超过美国的19.7万亿美元。而且，相比成熟的美国经济，中国还将经历长期的快速增长。两国之间的差距会一年比一年大。2000年，美国占全球总产出的比例为24%，但是到2017年，这一比例会下降至18%，而且会继续下降。

This poses enormous economic, political and strategic challenges. Yes, our military is still No. 1 - but you can't run a first-class empire with a second-class economy, as the British and the Soviets learned years ago.

这将在经济、政治和战略上带来巨大的挑战。是的，我们的军事力量仍然是世界第一，但是没有一流的经济就不会有一流的帝国。多年以前，英国和苏联的经验已经验证了这一点 。

Sorry about all this doom and gloom, Mr. President/President-Elect, especially on the morning after your big triumph.

总统/候任总统先生，很抱歉和你说这些让人感到悲观、不快的话，尤其是在你刚取得重大胜利的这个上午。

But look on the bright side. The Electoral College doesn't meet till Dec. 17. Maybe they'll pick the other guy instead.

但我们也不妨看看光明的一面。选举人团(Electoral College)要12月17日才开会，到时候说不定他们会选择你的对手呢。