阿里巴巴值多少钱:如果上市,值一千亿美元

Could Alibaba be China's next $100 billion stock market listing? The Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant continues to be coy over when it will take the plunge. But sooner or later founder Jack Ma will need to offer some kind of exit for his backers, not to mention employees, and an initial public offering is the most likely solution. Now is a good time to start asking how the company should be valued.

阿里巴巴（Alibaba）能否成为中国下一家千亿美元级别的上市公司？何时迈出这关键的一步？这家位于杭州的电子商务巨头对这个问题依然含糊其辞。但公司创始人马云迟早需要为投资者提供退路，更不用提公司的员工了。因此，首次公开募股将是最有可能的解决方案。公司应该获得怎样的估值？目前应该是开始思考这个问题的时候了。

Alibaba's main business is selling. Its Tmall online stores provide a shop front for brands like Nike (NKE) and Unilever (UL), while Taobao is focused on consumer-to-consumer trade. The closest U.S. peers might be Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY). Sadly for valuation purposes, there's no perfect match: unlike Amazon, Alibaba doesn't hold inventory or manage warehouses, and unlike eBay, it gets most of its revenue from advertising, not charging users.

阿里巴巴的主营业务是销售。它的在线商城天猫（Tmall）为耐克（Nike）和联合利华（Unilever）等品牌提供了一个网络店面，而淘宝则主要用于C2C交易。和它最为接近的同行应该是亚马逊（Amazon）和eBay。可惜的是，在估值方面，并没有一家与阿里巴巴完美匹配的公司：与亚马逊不同，阿里巴巴并未持有库存或管理仓库；而与eBay不同，阿里巴巴公司的大多数收入都来自广告，而不是用户收费。

Meanwhile, its range of services gets ever wider, and potentially harder to value. As well as accounting for the majority of China's e-commerce, a market worth $204 billion last year according to the China Internet Network Information Centre, Alibaba now has a mobile operating system, offers trade financing to vendors and may even start offering consumer loans. The company's chief strategist says it aims to be "the world's biggest data sharing platform."

与此同时，它的业务范围却变得日益广泛，这也可能使估值变得更加困难。阿里巴巴占据着中国电子商务市场的大部分份额。而据中国互联网信息中心（China Internet Network Information Centre）统计，去年中国电子商务市值为2,040亿美元。如今，阿里巴巴有一个移动操作系统，为供应商提供贸易融资，甚至可能开始提供消费贷款。公司首席策略师称，公司的目的是打造“全球最大的数据共享平台”。

Fortunately, there are two numbers that really matter. One is how much Alibaba can sell. The other is its "take," or what percentage it gets from each transaction on its sites. That take might come through advertising or through transaction fees, or a mixture of both. But ultimately, it represents the cash the company can squeeze out of its sellers. Other services like lending may create revenue, but for now they are mainly ways to lock in users and maintain market share.

好在有两个数据非常重要。一个是阿里巴巴能卖多少钱。另外一个则是公司的“提成”，即公司通过在它网站上完成的每笔交易中抽取的百分比。提成可能通过广告或交易手续费的形式，也可能综合两种方式。但最终，它代表了公司能够从卖家手中抽取的现金。其他服务，例如借贷等也可能带来收入。但在目前，它们主要只是留住用户、维持市场份额的主要手段而已。

Consider a back-of-envelope valuation exercise. The first question is how big the overall market can get. Say e-commerce in China grows 35% a year for the next two years, and that Alibaba can keep its current market share of around 80%. That would give it just under $300 billion of transactions in 2017 - over four times what eBay's marketplaces handled in 2017.

我们来粗略估算一下它的市值。第一个问题是，总体市场能够变得多大。假设未来两年，中国电子商务以35%的速度增长，而阿里巴巴仍能够保持目前约80%的市场份额。这将使它在2017年获得价值接近3,000亿美元的交易——超过2017年eBay市场份额的四倍。

In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba's magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China's regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.

现实情况下，会有更多因素影响阿里巴巴的市值。马云必须抓住股市周期与技术周期的时机。阿里巴巴有许多外国投资者，因此，它最有可能在海外市场上市。而在外国市场，股票投资者往往会受到自身对中国的法规、经济与会计实务看法的影响。百度（Baidu）、人人（Renren）和新浪（Sina）等公司的估值所表现出的摇摆不定通常很难用各公司基本业务的表现来解释。

Valuations change quickly. Facebook's went from $50 billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to $104 billion at its IPO in 2017; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just $40 billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.

估值变化很快。2010年底，Facebook在融资时的估值为500亿美元，而在2017年IPO时则达到了1,040亿美元；但目前，它的股价仅有当初估值的三分之二。最近，雅虎（Yahoo）将手头持有的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售给了阿里巴巴公司，交易对公司市值的认定是400亿美元。然而，与一家陷入困境的美国公司进行双边谈判跟上市比起来完全是两码事。

Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.

此外，互联网公司的性质决定了它内在的不稳定性。超强的盈利能力也会吸引超强的竞争对手，而且颠覆性技术可能在突然之间就取代了业已成熟的模式。当年的网景（Netscape）和微软（Microsoft）就充分证明，想象中不可动摇的市场地位可能瞬间就会易手。如果公司估值能够达到十二位数，上市就宜早不宜迟。