欧元创始人：欧元区有可能瓦解

One of the founding fathers of the euro admits that some states may be forced to abandon the single currency, but insists Germany would be better off staying in.

Otmar Issing, a former European Central Bank chief economist, warned that the eurozone could be heading towards fracture in a book called How we save the euro and strengthen Europe published this week.

"Everything speaks in favour of saving the euro area. How many countries will be able to be part of it in the long term remains to be seen," said Mr Issing in the book, which is written as a conversation between an economist and a journalist.

At no point did he explicitly refer to Greece, but the debt-stricken country has been hovering perilously close to default and an exit from the eurozone as it makes harsh spending cuts and tax hikes to appease the EU and ECB after receiving billions in bail-out payments.

"We are still a long way off saying 'that's it, now we are sure to make progress'. Substantial reforms in almost all countries are still pending," he added.

Mr Issing is one of the founding fathers of the euro, but also predicted potential problems with the plan and argued that political union ought to precede a shared currency to ensure its stability in the long-term. The economist has now said there is a case for some countries to leave the union in order to solve their own debt problems, but that Germany would do best to remain a member.

"Even in its short existence, the euro has been more stable than the mark", he said.

The German economist also played down the role that the central bank, his former employer, could have in solving the debt crisis, suggesting that countries needed to fix their own problems.

"There is no quick fix and anything in the direction of euro bonds or something similar would mean for me the end of the stability-oriented currency union.

"The less politicians address the root of the problems, the more they look with their expectations and demands to the ECB, which is not made for this. It is a central bank and not an institution to rescue governments threatened by bankruptcy. A central bank always also acts as a lender of last resort for the banking system - but it does not rescue governments," he said. "Exaggerated expectations alone can harm the prestige of the institution."

欧元的创始人之一奥托马•伊辛近日表示，一些欧元区国家可能被迫放弃这一单一货币，但他认为德国留在欧元区会更好。

在本周发行的新书《我们如何拯救欧元，巩固欧洲力量》中，前欧洲央行首席经济学家奥托马•伊辛提醒说，欧元区有可能瓦解。

伊辛在书中说：“大家都支持拯救欧元区，但从长远来看，有多少国家会一直留在欧元区还有待观察。”这本书是以一位经济学家和一位记者对话的形式写成的。

他的此番言论并没有明确将矛头指向希腊，但深陷债务危机的希腊距离债务违约和退出欧元区也不远了。希腊实施了严格的缩减开支和增税措施，以便在收到几十亿欧元的援助款后安抚欧盟和欧洲央行。

他补充说：“现在我们离说‘就是这样，我们可以确保做出改善了’还远得很。绝大多数成员国的大量改革计划仍然待定。”

伊辛是欧元的创始人之一，但他也预测出了欧元计划潜在的问题，并指出，政治联盟应该领先于单一货币，以确保货币的长期稳定性。伊辛现在表示，有可能出现有些国家脱离欧元区，以解决国内债务问题的情况，但德国应该尽力留下。

他说：“即使在较短的存在期间，欧元也比马克稳定。”

他认为自己的前雇主、欧洲央行在解决债务危机中的角色没有那么重要，各个国家需要自己解决问题。

“没有权宜之计，如果朝着欧元债券或者类似事物的方向发展，那就意味着以稳定为导向的货币联盟的终结。”

他说：“政治人士们越少谈论危机的根源，就能越多地带着期望和需求看待欧洲央行，欧洲央行不是为解决债务危机而成立的。它是一个央行，不是拯救濒临破产的政府的机构。央行也经常成为银行系统的最终贷款人，但央行并不负责拯救政府。夸张的期望足以毁掉央行的声誉。”