“末日之钟”拨快一分钟 人类离毁灭更近

Scientists on Tuesday pushed the hands of the infamous "Doomsday Clock" forward one minute from last year, signalling their increasing pessimism about the efforts of world leaders to handle global threats。

"It is now five minutes to midnight," the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) said in a sober assessment of current trends. "Two years ago, it appeared that world leaders might address the truly global threats that we face. In many cases, that trend has not continued or been reversed."

In January 2010, the clock's minute hand was pushed back one minute from five to six minutes before midnight. Midnight symbolizes humanity's destruction。

The clock setting, which has been a staple since 1947, represents the severity of the perceived threat to humanity from nuclear or biological weapons, climate change and other human-caused disasters. When it began this annual tradition, the BAS set the time at seven minutes to midnight. Following the first test of the hydrogen bomb, the doomsday clock ticked to two minutes before midnight in 1953. When the United States and Russia began reducing their nuclear arsenals in 1991, the Bulletin set the clock at 17 minutes to midnight。

In explaining its latest move, the BAS bemoaned the ability of global leaders to move ahead on ridding the world of nuclear weapons。

There are about 19,500 nuclear weapons in the world today, according to the BAS, which cautioned that "it is still possible for radical groups to acquire and use highly enriched uranium and plutonium to wreak havoc in nuclear attacks."

It also referenced last year's accident at Japan's Fukushima nuclear facility, saying the disaster underscored the urgency of developing safer nuclear reactor designs as well as better oversight, training, and attention。

The gloom did not end there. The Bulletin believes that the world may have neared what it called "a point of no return in efforts to prevent catastrophe from changes in Earth's atmosphere." It said that in the absence of finding alternatives to carbon-emitting energy technologies within five years," the world will be doomed to a warmer climate, harsher weather, droughts, famine, water scarcity, rising sea levels, loss of island nations, and increasing ocean acidification。

"Unfortunately, Einstein's statement in 1946 that 'everything has changed, save the way we think,' remains true," said BAS co-chair Lawrence Krauss. "The provisional developments of 2 years ago have not been sustained, and it makes sense to move the clock closer to midnight, back to the value it had in 2007."

周二，科学家们把邪恶的“末日之钟”的指针拨快了一分钟，相对于去年更加逼近“末日” ，表示他们对于世界领袖应对全球威胁的行动感到越来越悲观。

《原子科学家公报》冷静地分析了现在的趋势，指出：“现在是午夜11时55分，两年前世界领袖们看上去好像真的能解决我们面临的全球威胁。但是很多情况下，这一乐观的趋势并未持续或者说已经逆转。”

2010年1月，“末日之钟”的分针从11时55分调回11时54分。午夜零时象征着人类的毁灭。

“末日之钟”于1947年设立，代表了人类感受到的来自核武器或生化武器、气候变化及其它人为灾难等威胁的严峻程度。《原子科学家公报》杂志每年都有调整“末日之钟”的惯例， “末日之钟”最初设定在午夜11时53分。美国1953年试爆第一颗氢弹后，“末日之钟”调整至晚11时58分。美俄于1991年开始减少核军火库规模之后，“末日之钟”又调整到11时43分。

对于这次最新的调整，《原子科学家公报》解释称，他们为全球领袖未能在清除核武器方面取得进展而感到惋惜。

据《原子科学家公报》报道，现在全球有一万九千五百个核武器，并警告说“激进分子仍有可能获得并且使用高浓缩铀和钚来发动核袭击造成严重破坏”。

该杂志还提到了去年在日本福岛核电站发生的核泄漏事件，认为这次灾难凸显了设计开发更安全的核反应堆、加强监督、培训和提高关注度的紧迫性。

灾难带来的阴霾并不止于此。公报称世界或许已经接近了“地球气候变暖引发大灾难的不可逆转之点”。“如果五年之内找不到碳排放能源技术的替代方法”，世界注定会出现气候变暖、极端天气、干旱、饥荒、缺水、海平面上升、岛国消失和海洋日趋酸化。

《原子科学家公报》副主席劳伦斯•克劳斯说：“不幸的是，爱因斯坦在1946年所说的‘一切都已改变，除了我们的思维方式’依然正确。两年前的短暂发展没有延续，所以把‘末日之钟’调回2007年更接近午夜的时间是合理的。”