2013将是金融“去全球化”关键年

The quarter-century leading up to the financial crisis saw a remarkable leap in globalisation. Cross-border bank lending, much of it intermediated in London, grew rapidly. Citibank’s ambition was to be seen on street corners from Manhattan to Manama; HSBC told us, every time we got off an aircraft, that it was “the world’s local bank.

在金融危机爆发前的二十五年里，金融领域的全球化程度显著提高。跨境银行信贷快速增长，其中绝大部分由设在伦敦的金融机构牵线搭桥。从曼哈顿到巴林首都麦纳麦(Manama)的街头都可以看到花旗银行(Citibank)的宣传标语。而每当我们乘飞机时，就会看到汇丰银行(HSBC)的口号——“环球金融、地方智慧。

Since the crisis this trend has gone into reverse: cross-border lending has fallen sharply and the ambitions of American and European banks have been scaled back. Are we entering an age of financial “deglobalisation? If so, should we care?

自金融危机以来，这一趋势出现了逆转：跨境银行信贷规模显著萎缩，美国和欧洲银行也已收敛了自己的扩张野心。我们是否已经进入了一个金融“去全球化时代？如果确实如此，我们是否应当为此感到担忧？

Some of the retrenchment was inevitable. Banks had become overextended. But there are signs that the withdrawal may be traced to regulatory actions, and to a form of financial protectionism, which could be as dangerous as protectionism in trade.

这一收缩趋势在一定程度上是不可避免的。银行业务过去确实扩张过度。但有迹象显示，监管举措以及金融保护主义也是导致金融机构收缩业务的影响因素，其中金融保护主义的危害性或与贸易保护主义相当。

In some cases, particularly in Europe, home state regulators have required their institutions to pull liquidity back from overseas markets to protect the parent bank. US regulators are pressing overseas banks to set up local subsidiaries, with separate capitalisation (as the Canadians have done for some time). Even in the EU, banks are being pressed to set up local subsidiaries.

在某些情况下（特别是在欧洲地区），一国的监管当局会要求本国金融机构从海外市场撤回流动性，以保护母公司。美国的监管当局则对外资银行施压，要求他们设立拥有单独资本金配置的本地化分支机构（加拿大施行这一措施已有一段时间）。即使是在欧盟内部，银行也同样会被要求在业务开展国设立本地化分支机构。

These are not costless measures. They cause liquidity and capital to be trapped where they are not needed, and mean that capital is therefore not optimally used, which will increase the cost of credit. In response, banks withdraw from marginal markets, reducing competition. Local authorities respond by biasing their regulation in favour of domestic entities. A cycle of discrimination and domestication is established.

这些措施会产生相应的成本。它们导致流动性和资本金被禁锢在并不需要它们的地方，资金的使用效率因此没有达到最优，进而抬高了信贷成本。针对这种形势，银行纷纷撤出次要市场，以降低竞争强度。本国监管当局则采取了将监管规则向本国机构倾斜的应对办法。由此形成了金融歧视和本地化发展的循环。

The Financial Stability Board and the International Monetary Fund are concerned about these trends. They recognise the dangers. 2013 will be a decisive year. Will central banks and regulators embrace deglobalisation, or will it be possible to find a new equilibrium, in which the crisis learnings are embedded in a new approach that preserves many of the benefits of open financial markets? Finding the right answer is crucial.

金融稳定委员会(Financial Stability Board)和国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)对上述趋势深表担忧。它们从中看到了潜在风险。2013年将是决定性的一年。各国央行和监管当局是否会欣然接纳“去全球化，或者有无可能借鉴我们在金融危机中吸取的经验教训，采取一种能保留开放金融市场主要优点的新办法，从而找到一个新的平衡点？找到这一问题的正确答案至关重要。

Howard Davies is a former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, former deputy governor of the Bank of England and former director of London School of Economics. He is now a professor of practice at Sciences Po in Paris.

本文作者霍华德·戴维斯曾任英国金融服务管理局(Financial Services Authority)局长、英国央行(Bank of England)副行长、伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)院长，目前是巴黎政治学院(Sciences-Po)的实践教授(professor of practice)。