你是“防御性悲观主义者”吗？

　　悲观者抱怨风大，乐观者期待风停，而防御性悲观者会调整风帆。有时候适当的悲观能让我们做好充足的准备来应对可以预见的困境，这种未雨绸缪的心态就叫defensive pessimism（防御性悲观）。

　　Defensive pessimism is a strategy that anticipates a negative outcome and then takes steps to avoid that outcome.

　　防御性悲观是一种预测消极后果并采取相应防范措施的心理策略。

　　Defensive pessimists tend to be very successful people, and their low opinion of the outcome isn't realistic; they use it to motivate themselves to perform better.

　　防御性悲观主义者往往会是成功人士，他们对于结果的低期望值和现实并不相符，他们只是以此来激励自己做得更好。

　　Defensive pessimism can be very constructive on the organization level. Financial giant J.P. Morgan Stanley faced the reality that the highly symbolic building they occupied was a prime terrorist target. They responded by implementing escape drills, which they expected everyone to attend and take seriously. This heads-up attitude proved to be lifesaving later on 9/11. In spite of receiving an almost direct hit, they lost only seven employees.

　　防御性悲观主义对于组织来说也是非常有建设性的。金融巨头JP摩根斯坦利公司直面自己所在的标志性建筑最容易招致恐怖主义袭击这一事实，让每个人都认真参与了逃亡演习。这种未雨绸缪的态度在后来的9•11事件中挽救了许多生命。尽管他们受到了直接袭击，但只有7名雇员丧生。