The economy 美国经济
RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued, but Americas is starting to lookcomatose. On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the firstquarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists had hoped for an upward revision.Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for thecurrent quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.
从金融危机中恢复过来通常是一个缓慢而艰难的过程,但美国的恢复进程似乎就要陷入休克。5月26日,政府说一季度GDP按年增长率来计算增长了1.8%,与初始估算相符。经济学家们曾经希望实际情况可以更加乐观。更糟糕的是,由于经济疲软的迹象累加,预测者从一开始就把对当前季度的预测从一个月前的3.5%左右将到了2.7%,现在可能会更少。
Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend GeorgeBushs tax cuts and enact new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But thenew consensus rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above Americaslong-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped reboundwas never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.
去年12月,奥巴马与共和党达成协议延长小布什的税收减免政策,并颁布了新的政策,这使得专家对今年经济增长的预测达到3%-4%。但如今经济恢复已经长达两年之久,公认的增长率为2.6%。这一增长率仅仅略高于美国的长期潜能,但若想降低失业率,还是力道不足。当然,对于银行以及家庭来说,后危机时代最重要的事即减少债务,这意味着经济V型的回升几乎不可能。即便是这样,现在的状况也算是糟糕的了。
Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japans earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes battered Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting at least $1 billion in damage.
经济学家们发现自己不停的找借口。最开始是暴风雪。然后是日本的地震、台风,还有影响供应美国汽车组装工厂配件的核灾难。后来,由于冰雪融化,洪水袭击了阿肯色、密西西比、密苏里、田纳西,而且阿拉巴马和密苏里也遭遇龙卷风。美国今年已经经历了5场极端天气,每一场都会带来至少10亿美元的损失。
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