104. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot ― the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cows net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
In this memorandum the loan department of Frostbite National Bank recommends against approval of a business loan to a local group that wants to open an ice cream parlor. In support of this decision the loan department points out that Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and sales of ice cream decrease in cold weather. This latter point is buttressed by the fact that Frostbites only ice cream parlor suffered a 10 percent decline in net revenues the previous winter. The loan departments decision is questionable for the following reasons.
To begin with, since it is reasonable to expect a decline in ice cream sales during winter months, it is difficult to assess the relevance of the fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the potential success of the Kool Kone franchise. Common sense suggests that this fact would be significant only if it turned out that Frostbites winter season lasted 9 or 10 months as it does in arctic regions. In that case slow sales could be expected for most of the year and the loan departments opposition to the loan would be readily understandable. If, on the other hand, Frostbites winter season lasts only a few months and the remainder of the year is warm or hot, it is difficult to comprehend the loan departments reasoning.
Next, the loan department assumes that the Frigid Cows decline in net revenue last winter was a result of slow sales occasioned by cold weather. While this is a possible reason for the decline, it is not the only factor that could account for it. For example, other factors such as poor business practices or lack of inventory could be responsible for the Frigid Cows loss of revenue. The loan departments failure to investigate or even consider these and other possible explanations for the Frigid Cows decline in revenue renders their decision highly suspect.
In conclusion, the loan departments decision is ill-founded. To better evaluate the decision, we would need to know more about the length and severity of Frostbites winter season. Moreover, evidence would have to be provided to support the assumption that the Frigid Cows loss of revenue last winter was a direct result of the cold weather.
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 3《Body Language and Nonverbal Communication》(外研版必修4)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 1《British and American English》(外研版必修5)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《Newspapers and Magazines》(外研版必修2)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《Ethnic Culture》(外研版选修7)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修3《Unit 1 The world of our senses》感觉的世界
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修2《Unit 2 Wish you were here》希望你在这里
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 3《Literature》(外研版选修7)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 1《Deep South》(外研版选修8)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《The Conquest of the Universe》(外研版选修8)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》(外研版必修3)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修5《Unit 3 Science versus nature》科学与自然
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修4《Unit 1 Advertising》Advertising广告
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修3《Unit 2 Language》语言
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《The Great Sports Personality》(外研版必修5)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块选修6《Unit 1 Laughter is good for you》笑对你有好处
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《A Trip Along the Three Gorges》(外研版必修4)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修5《Unit 1 Getting along with others》与他人相处
《萨利机长》电影精讲(视频)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 2《Highlights of My Senior Year》(外研版选修7)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 5《Great People and Great Inventions of Ancient China》(外研版必修3)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 6《War and Peace》(外研版选修6)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块必修5《Unit 2 The Environment》The environment环境
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块选修6《Unit 2 What is happiness to you?》对你来说幸福是什么
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 4《Great Scientists》(外研版必修4)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 4《Music Born in America》(外研版选修7)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块选修7《Unit 2 Fit for life》健康生活
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 4《Music》(外研版选修6)
湖南高考英语复习课件牛津译林版模块选修7《Unit 3 The World online》网上世界
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 4《Fine Arts—Western,Chinese and Pop Arts》(外研版必修2)
海南省高考英语复习课件:Module 6《Old and New》(外研版必修3)
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