107. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries.
A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
As a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be played during the period food items from that country are on sale. The basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that country was played. The managers proposal is questionable for several reasons.
First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question.
Second, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is consistent with the statement that the wine store sold more French than Italian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa when Italian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this method. For example, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian whereas the reverse was the case when Italian music was played, and that in both instances only 10 bottles were sold.
In conclusion, the managers recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales of an item are influenced by the type of music played. Additionally, the manager would have to provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music.
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word学案1
2013外研版必修三Module 1《Europe》word学案(有答案)
外研版高中英语必修4《Module 3 Body Language and Non-Verbal Communication》word教案
2013外研版必修二Module 2《No Drugs》word教案1
外研版高中英语必修4《Module 5 A Trip Along the Three Gorges》word教案
2013外研版必修三Module1《Europe》word教案1
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word教案
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word学案5
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 6 Old and New》word单元学案
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 1 Europe》(Period 1)word教案
2013外研版必修三Module1《Europe》(TASK)word教案
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 1 Europe》(Period 5)word教案
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word学案6
2013外研版必修四Module5《Trip Along the Three Gorges》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版必修二Module 2《No Drugs》word教案
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word学案3
2013外研版必修二Module 3《Music》word教案1
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 1 Europe》word学案
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 2 Developing and Developed countries》word单元学案
2013外研版必修二Module 4《Fine Arts – Western, Chinese and Pop Arts》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版必修三Module 2《Developing and Developed Countries》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版必修二Module 4《Fine Arts – Western, Chinese and Pop Arts》word教案
2013外研版必修二Module 1《Our Body and Healthy Habits》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版高中英语必修3全册学案
2013外研版必修四Module4《Great scientists》word学案
外研版高中英语必修4《Module 6 Unexplained Mysteries of the Nature World》word教案
外研版高中英语必修3《Module 5 Great people and Great Invention》word教案
2013外研版必修四Module6《Unexplained Mysteries of the Nature World》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版必修三Module 5《Great people and Great Invention》word学案(有答案)
2013外研版必修三Module 1《Europe》word备课教案
不限 |
英语教案 |
英语课件 |
英语试题 |
不限 |
不限 |
上册 |
下册 |
不限 |