107. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries.
A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
As a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be played during the period food items from that country are on sale. The basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that country was played. The managers proposal is questionable for several reasons.
First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question.
Second, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is consistent with the statement that the wine store sold more French than Italian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa when Italian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this method. For example, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian whereas the reverse was the case when Italian music was played, and that in both instances only 10 bottles were sold.
In conclusion, the managers recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales of an item are influenced by the type of music played. Additionally, the manager would have to provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music.
少儿英语口语故事:晴朗的天
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学前英语口语学习教程汇总
跟小小孩说英文:Buying clothes 买衣服
少儿英语口语资料:A strong donkey
少儿英语口语练习:Meal time
跟小小孩说英文:No toys today 今天不买玩具
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少儿英语口语故事:荡秋千
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英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 03 我爱我的家
英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 02 你叫什么名字
跟小小孩说英文:Changing the diaper 换尿布
跟小小孩说英文:What to wear? 穿什么衣服
跟小小孩说英文:Getting dressed 整理衣衫
少儿英语口语故事:格瑞丝
少儿英语口语资料:A Shooting Star
英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 05 这是什么
英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 09 我有一只狗
少儿英语口语资料:south park
儿童英语常用礼貌用语
儿童英语礼貌用语
跟小小孩说英文:In the warehouse 在大卖场
英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 01 你好
英蕊乐园游历记全集:Story 10 你是谁?
少儿英语口语资料:The horse and the ass
少儿英语口语故事:白云
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