114. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives.
一家软件工程公司,Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录:
RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入,我们的利润下降了1/4,而且,这个机制基本上没有效果,因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际成功。为了再次得到更多的利润,RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制,并把节余用于研发的开展。
1. The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2. Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3. Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.
1. 同时发生并不代表因果,忽略他因
2. 没有提供信息,不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训
3. 即使是省下钱,也不知是否科研,因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。
In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The directors line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The directors argument is questionable for several reasons.
To begin with, the directors reasoning is a classic instance of after this, therefore because of this reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Wares failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the companys marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Wares quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.
119. The following is from an editorial that appeared in a River City newspaper.
The Clio Development Group wants to build a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street in River City, but the plan should not be approved. Most of the buildings on the block would then have to be demolished. Because these buildings were erected decades ago, they have historic significance and must therefore be preserved as economic assets in the effort to revitalize a restored riverfront area. Recall how Lakesburg has benefited from business increases in its historic downtown center. Moreover, there is plenty of vacant land for a parking lot elsewhere in River City.
给River城的报纸的编辑的一封信:
Clio发展商不应该被允许在Dock街修建多层停车场,因为这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁。因为这些建筑是几十年前修建的,他们具有历史意义,因此应该在复兴沿河区域的努力中被保留做经济资产。回忆一下沿湖地区通过他们的有历史的中心街区的商业增长得到了多少好处。而且,River城的其他地方有足够多空地可以修停车场。
文章反对摧毁古建筑来修建停车场。
所以你应该说那些建筑没有什么历史意义,不一定会带来商业增长。RIVER城其它地方并没有空地,就只有DOCK街需要停车场其它地方远水解不了近渴,我们还可以通过其它方法避免摧毁建筑而又可以在DOCK街修建多层停车场
120. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.
Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a World Tour theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this site and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade.
修建休闲公园的公司的董事会计划备忘录:
因为我国到其他国家的交通在近几年显着增加,我们的下一个目标应该是世界之旅主题公园,公园有各国着名建筑的复制品,有国际主题的旅行,点心摊位只提供离得最近的那个旅行方式所代表的国家的食物。最好的地点是靠近首都附近,那里有大量的国际居民和16岁以下的小孩。有了这个便利的地点和对国外兴趣的增长,世界交通主题公园将会和我们的参观者增长10倍的太空旅行主题公园一样成功。
1. Increasing travel from the country the mentioned comany belongs to to foreign countries does not necessarily mean there is also a increasing interest in the amusment parks with a world tour theme.
2. Therefore, the proposal that the amusement park should be bulit in the capital city is also groundless.
3. Even if there is an increasing interest in the parks with a theme of world tour, it is not necessary to go to the extreme such us making the refreshment stands serve only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride.
4. What is more, the companys plan is based on a false analogy that the World tour theme park should be as successful as the Space travel theme park.
1. Increase in travelling abroad doesnt guarantee an increase in the interest to go the World Tour theme park.
2. Gratuitous assumption: No reliable evidence can support the idea that the capital city is the best location for an amusement park.
3. False analogy.
123. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a River City newspaper.
The Clio Development Groups plan for a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street should be approved in order to strengthen the economy of the surrounding area. Although most of the buildings on the block would have to be demolished, they are among the oldest in the city and thus of little current economic value. Those who oppose the project should realize that historic preservation cannot be the only consideration: even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up new ones that improve the local economy.
给River城的报纸编辑的一封信:
Clio发展商在Dock街修建多层停车场的计划应该被批准以便加强附近地区的经济。虽然这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁,但他们是这个城市最老的建筑因此现在没有多少经济价值了。那些反对这个项目的人应该认识到保护历史不能是唯一的考虑,甚至雅典和耶路撒冷也会拆除旧建筑来盖新建筑以促进本地经济。
1. No evidence is given to support the direct causal relationship between the buliding of mutilevel parking garage on Dock Streets with the development of the economy of the surrounding area.
2. Admittedly, the historic preservation can not be the only consideration when decide whether to demolish the historic buildings or not. It is also reckless to ignore the historic preservation. A decision should be made after balancing all the factors.
3. The fact cited by the writter of the letter that even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up news one can not serve as a evidence to approve the demolishment of the old buildings on the Dock street.
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