GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文五十

　　40. The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its

　　current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of

　　reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar-

　　exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchars sugar abroad and, in turn,

　　substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a

　　couple of reasons.

　　In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade

　　deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends

　　more on imports than it earns from exports. The authors argument relies on the

　　assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author

　　provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from

　　imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed

　　by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchars trade deficit problem. Conversely,

　　it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near

　　future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible

　　countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchars sugar.

　　In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield

　　an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in

　　income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address.

　　First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to

　　meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production

　　sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we

　　cannot assess the authors proposal.

　　In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a

　　result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need

　　to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the

　　argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the

　　proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate