FT社评：财政悬崖阴影未散

By any measure the outgoing 112th Congress is the most polarised in modern US history. Yet Republican and Democratic leaders are doing a surprisingly good job of seeming as though they might turn away from the fiscal cliff. Last week’s Oval Office meeting brought signs that Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, is prepared to get along with Barack Obama. Even the diehards see a downside in being blamed for a self-inflicted recession.

美国第112届国会即将任满。无论从哪个角度来看，这届国会都是美国现代史上两党分化最严重的一届。不过，就眼下来说，共和党和民主党的领袖们居然干得有模有样——看上去，他们似乎有可能将美国从财政悬崖上拉回来。上周在总统办公室举行了会议，会上有迹象显示，参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)已准备与巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)合作。看来，就连死硬派也明白，假如因为导致美国陷入一场“自找的衰退而受到众人指责，情况就不妙了。

There are two reasons to remain vigilant as Washington inches towards a possible compromise.

尽管华盛顿局势正朝着两党可能达成妥协的方向缓慢发展，但有关方面仍应保持警惕，原因有两点。

First, the US recovery remains tepid. Any action to avoid the cliff will involve some spending cuts and some tax increases – although far lower than the roughly $500bn that would result from the current policy course. Any tax increase would be confined to the top 2 per cent, which would not be sharply contractionary. However, it is vital that Congress extend the temporary payroll cut and unemployment insurance, which also expire at the end of year. Both have a big impact on demand.

首先，美国经济复苏势头仍然不温不火。为避免跌下财政悬崖而采取的任何行动，都将逃不开一定力度的减支和增税措施，尽管总规模将远低于5000亿美元（这是在不采取任何行动的情况下大概的减支和增税规模）。任何增税措施都将把对象限定为收入最高的2%人群，这样的增税将不会产生强烈的紧缩效应。然而，有一点非常重要，就是国会必须延长将于今年年底到期的临时工资税减免和临时失业保障政策。二者对需求都有重大影响。

Second, Mr Obama believes he now has a mandate to restore the Clinton-era tax rates on the highest brackets – families that earn more than $250,000. Whether he does so by raising the headline rate or limiting deductions – there is a case for both – is likely to be part of a last-minute compromise.

其次，奥巴马认为，如今他有权恢复克林顿时代针对收入最高人群（年收入超过25万美元的家庭）实行的税率。无论他是通过提高税率还是降低免税额——两种办法各有优点——做到这一点，相关措施都可能是最后关头才达成的妥协方案中的一部分。

The goal is chiefly political. But in terms of policy it leaves a lot to be desired. If the Democrats are serious about ensuring that America’s wealthiest bear a reasonable share of austerity, they should focus on capital gains as well as income taxes. Most of the country’s seriously rich live off capital gains, which are levied at less than half the top rate of income tax. That is why Mitt Romney never paid more than 14 per cent in taxes over the past decade.

奥巴马的目标主要是着眼于政治层面。但就政策而言，这个目标给了人们很多期待。如果民主党真的打算让美国最富有的人群合理地承担紧缩的一部分后果，那么，除了所得税以外，他们也应着眼于资本所得税。美国真正的有钱人大多靠资本收益过日子，可是资本所得税的税率不到最高档所得税税率的一半。米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)过去十年从未缴纳超过14%的税率，原因就在这里。

Equalising the rates is unlikely to be part of any deal to avert the fiscal cliff before January. But the parties would most likely include a deadline to hammer out a medium-term fiscal package before the end of 2013. This would probably – and necessarily – cover entitlement programmes, especially Medicare, which need to be curbed to solve the long-term deficit. Yet these are also the safety nets for the most vulnerable.

在明年1月份之前为避免跌下财政悬崖而达成的任何协议中，都不太可能包含将资本所得税税率调整为向所得税税率看齐的内容。但两党很有可能设定一个截止日期，约定在2013年底之前制定一项中期财政方案。该方案可能、也必须包括对一些福利项目的调整，特别是联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)。要解决长期财政赤字问题，福利项目必须精简。然而，这些也是针对弱势人群的保障项目。

Equity and efficiency require any deal to include capital gains – a good start would be to end the undertaxing of carried interest in private equity. It would be a supreme irony if any coming austerity demanded sacrifices of everyone except the very rich.

出于公平和效率的双重考虑，任何协议都必须包含对资本所得税的调整。改变对私募股权投资行业(PE)附带权益所征税率过低的做法将是一个良好的开端。如果未来的紧缩措施要求所有人做出牺牲，富豪们除外，那么这将是一个莫大的讽刺。