世界银行:对新兴市场的担忧正在增长

A perfect storm is brewing this summer for emerging markets, and it could hit hard in September.

今年夏天，一场完美风暴正在新兴市场中酝酿，到9月份时可能会更加猛烈。

After years of impressive growth, countries like China and Brazil face steeper challenges this year, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said in a report released Wednesday.

世界银行行长金镇勇在周三发布的报道中说，在数年令人惊叹的增长之后，这些国家，比如中国和巴西，面临了更大的挑战。

"Developing countries were an engine of global growth following the financial crisis," Kim said. "Now th ey face a more difficult economic environment."

"发展中国家是金融危机后全球危机的引擎,"金说,“现在，他们面临着一个更加困难的经济环境。

The World Bank isn.t the only organization expressing concern. The Federal Reserve debated the negative affect of a Fed rate hike on emerging markets at its last meeting. Concern is rising.

世界银行并不是唯一一个表达担忧的组织。美联储也在上次会议中争论提升利率会对新兴市场造成的负面影响，担忧正在上升。

Three things could culminate in September to send investors scrambling from emerging markets.

三件事可能在9月份到达顶峰，让新兴市场投资者陷入混乱。

1. The strong U.S. dollar;

1.强美元;

2. Low commodity prices due to China's slowdown and a lack of demand;

2.由于中国减速和缺乏需求而造成的大宗商品价格下降;

3. A Federal Reserve rate increase.

3.美联储提升利率

Issues with a Fed rate hike: Many experts expect the Fed to raise rates in September, something it hasn't done since 2006.

美联储提升利率造成的问题：很多专家预测，美联储将在9月份提升利率，这是2006年以来的首次。

That would cause two things. It would increase borrowing costs — interest on loans — for companies in emerging markets. And it would make American debt more attractive to investors, meaning emerging marl< ebt could see a selloff.

这会导致两种结果。它会提高新兴市场公司的借贷成本和贷款利率。它会让美国国债对投资者来说更吸引人,这意味着新兴市场债券会面临抛售。

Anytime the Fed moves an inch, it makes emerging markets shiver in fear. In 2013, when former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke signaled that the bank would eventually end its stimulus program, emerging markets had a " per tantrum." So a Fed rate hike isn.t welcome news.

任何时候，只要美联储一行动，新兴市场就会为之颤栗。在2013年，当美联储主席本路伯南克暗示刺激计划结束的时候，新兴市场"逐渐熄火"。所以，美联储提升利率不是什么好消息。

Storm clouds ahead: The rocky outlook for emerging markets this year is a far cry from just a few years ago when the U.S. dollar was weak, interest rates were near zero and commodity prices were still high.

风暴正在前行：今年，与前些年美元弱势，利率接近0，同时大宗商品价格保持高位的的时候相比，新兴市场的艰难前景越发糟糕。

"All that was a perfect storm for emerging markets to perform well. But that rug has been pulled out," says Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "I'm pretty nervous for emerging markets this year."

"所有这些都是新兴市场表现良好的基础。但是，这些好处都消失了，"布朗兄弟哈尔曼公司的新兴市场货币策略总裁温胜说，"我非常担忧新兴市场的今年。"

Not all emerging markets will struggle, Thin says. Countries like India, China and Colombia are better positioned than Brazil and South Africa. Generally, Asian countries are expected to fare better than Latin American and African nations.

不是所有的新兴市场都面临痛苦，胜说，有些国家，比如印度，中国和哥伦比亚，情况就比巴西和南非好得多。一般来说，亚洲国家预期要比拉美和非洲国家好。

The dollar's surge, like rising interest rates, makes it harder for emerging nations and businesses to pay off their debt. And emerging economies' engine of growth -- commodities like oil, copper and soy -- have fallen off a cliff in the past year. It's a triple whammy.

美元巨浪，比如提升利率，让新兴市场国家和它们的公司难以偿还债务。新兴经济体的增长引擎——大宗商品，比如石油，铜和大豆——在过去的几年里已经出现断崖式下跌。这是三重打击。

Earlier this spring, emerging market stocks, which are cheap, were surging, up 10% in late April. But that was just their moment in the sun. Reality is starting to set in that a Fed rate hike is coming. (Fed Chair Janet Yellen basically said so in May.) The MSCI emerging market index is now only up 2.2% this year.

今年春季早期，十分便宜的新兴市场股票突然暴涨，涨幅在4月份达到10%。但是，这只是回光返照。随着美联储升息的临近，现实已经来临了。(美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦在5月份大致这么表达过。)摩根士丹利的新兴市场指数今年只增长了2.2%。

The major concern is that all these factors could cause cash to flood out of emerging markets and companies this fall.

主要的担忧是，这些因素可能会导致新兴市场资金流出，企业因此倒闭。

"The U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase since the global financial crisis could ignite market volatility and reduce capital flows to emerging markets," the World Bank said in its report. Kim, the bank's president, said it will try to help these countries.

世界银行在它的报告中说，"美联储自金融危机以来的首次升息行为可能会引发市场动荡，从而减少流入新兴市场的资金。"行长金说，世行会尝试帮助这些国家。