西方组队遏制俄罗斯难以奏效

西方的所作所为就像它面临的问题是弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)一样。事实上，西方面临的问题在于俄罗斯本身。俄罗斯总统的立场与俄罗斯长期以来的思维传统保持一致。他的离开不会解决任何事情。一个正常的继任者依然会采取类似行动，即使在行动魄力方面或许比前任略逊一筹。

The west acts as if it has a Vladimir Putin problem. In fact it has a Russia problem. The Russian president stands within a long tradition of Russian thinking. His departure would fix nothing. Any plausible successor would pursue a similar course, if perhaps with a little less machismo.

俄罗斯的问题不是一个新问题。在200年前，拿破仑时代的末期这个问题就出现了，并且体现出我们今天所谓的价值鸿沟。在19世纪，俄罗斯依然维持着独裁政权，而欧洲则开始走向自由的民主政体。

The Russia problem is not new. It emerged 200 years ago, at the end of the Napoleonic period, with the opening up of what we would today call a values gap. In the 19th century Russia maintained an autocratic regime as Europe moved towards liberal democracy.

然而俄罗斯依然是个大国，与欧洲的安全息息相关。面临一个持不同世界观的强国，欧洲该如何自保?这在当时是个难题，现在也是如此。

Yet Russia remained a great power, essential to European security. How to protect Europe in the presence of a powerful state that is alien in worldview? That was the problem then, as now.

欧洲国家通过均势来寻求安全;俄罗斯则通过战略纵深来寻求安全。这种观点源于俄罗斯所处的位置——广袤和几乎没有天险的欧亚大平原，军队可以轻松地四处移动。

European states seek security in balance; Russia seeks it in strategic depth. That view grows out of its location on the vast, nearly featureless great Eurasian plain, across which armies have moved with ease.

历史上，俄罗斯一直努力将边境线向外推进，尽可能地远离腹地。在遇到可以防御的实体边界时它也不会停止推进，除非遭遇能与之抗衡的强大国家。西方认为这是帝国主义，而莫斯科则将其视为防御的建立。

Historically, Russia has pushed its borders outward, as far away as possible from its heartland. It did not stop when it reached defensible physical borders, but only when it ran into powerful countervailing states. Where the west saw imperialism, Moscow saw the erection of defences.

随着时间推移，俄罗斯遭遇了各方的抵抗——西方的日耳曼国家、英国和当时处于南方的美国、东方的中国和日本，这划定了俄罗斯的安全区域，即欧亚大陆中部的北方，也就是前苏联的地盘。