WASHINGTON, June 12 -- Economists are warning of the rising risk of a second COVID-19 wave in the United States as reopening efforts continue across the nation.
"The re-opening of the economy without a vaccine always presented the obvious risk of a second wave, which is by far the largest risk to a steady economic recovery," economists at Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group wrote Friday in a report.
"While the U.S. as a whole saw the slowest pace of new case growth since March on Tuesday, it was the very next day that Texas reported its highest one-day total of new cases since the pandemic began. This uptick in case growth has raised concern of a new wave of lockdowns," the report said.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, noted that COVID-19 cases per capita "are exploding across the South and Southwest." with Texas now at major risk of a significant wave of infections and Arizona's medical system at risk of being overwhelmed.
"Based on extrapolation of the current rate of infection, the number of cases is likely to approach 2.2 million in the third week of June," Brusuelas wrote Friday in an analysis. "We are now concerned that a wave of infections will carry a second round of economic implications."
Maria Cosma, an associate economist at Moody's Analytics, warned that cases in the United States could rise to such a degree that national and local governments would re-institute lockdowns.
"This has already happened in several Asian countries, but aggressive quarantines, testing and contact tracing efforts have limited lockdowns to cities and regions, limiting the economic pain as well," Cosma wrote Friday in a note.
"Even if governments avoid lockdowns, a resurgence of cases could rattle consumers and businesses, stifling demand," she said.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also warned that a second wave of COVID-19 infections could hurt public confidence and economic recovery.
"Even if you don't have a national level pandemic, just a series of local spikes could have the effect of undermining people's confidence in traveling, in restaurants, and entertainment, anything that involves getting people together in small groups," Powell said at a virtual press conference Wednesday afternoon. "It would not be a positive development."
But U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the country cannot shut down the economy again even if there is another surge in COVID-19 cases.
"We can't shut down the economy, again. I think we've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage, and not just economic damage, but there are other areas," Mnuchin said in an interview with CNBC.
Mnuchin also said he was prepared to return to Congress to request additional fiscal aid to help the economy and workers weather the pandemic.
"We're prepared to go back to Congress for more money to support the American workers. So, we're going to get everybody back to work," he said.
Over 44 million initial jobless claims have been filed over the past 12 weeks as COVID-19-induced recession sent ripples through the U.S. labor market, according to the Labor Department.
A survey released by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on Monday also showed that over 80 percent of panelists viewed a second wave of COVID-19 as the greatest downside risk for the U.S. economy through 2020.
"The NABE panel remains decidedly pessimistic about the second quarter of the year, as 80% of participants view risks to the outlook tilted to the downside," said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Eugenio Aleman.
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group believed that the road to U.S. economic recovery will be long, and a second wave of the virus will only make it longer.
"By the end of this year, the U.S. economy will be about 5% smaller than it was at the end of 2019 on a real basis, and even by the end of 2021, we expect the level of real GDP will still be about 2.5% shy of the prerecession peak," said the group.
雅思阅读满分大牛心得阅读量阅读速度
雅思口语7分的备考经验和考场技巧
3个月备考拿下雅思口语7分单词是基础
雅思阅读8分学员分享学习经验
学员专访雅思7点5分留学生眼中的雅思
成都川大考场的雅思口语蹲点小方法
雅思口语8分经验准备要充分
提高雅思听力水平的一些个人体会
雅思听力7分得主的经验与网站推荐
当好演员才能打动雅思口语考官
雅思阅读8分经验多读杂志文章练语感
关于雅思口语考试顺序的一点经验分享
雅思听力满分获得者的四种听力练习方法
雅思阅读85分经验好好把文章读一读
雅思考试前一天需要准备什么
无言的动力新的开始雅思阅读8分备考感言
雅思口语考试经历充足的准备加平静心态最重要
雅思阅读85分经验proficiency助你拿高分
雅思听力满分大牛的备考心得分享
两次雅思阅读6点5分备考经验总结
雅思口语5分到6分的复议经验分享
一分努力一分收获雅思阅读满分经验分享
雅思阅读4个月备考的经验总结
英语专业烤鸭的雅思听力85分经验分享
小烤鸭关于雅思听力机经的一点看法
雅思听力满分获得者的听力练习方法
雅思听力8点5分经验多磨耳朵才能把握细节
雅思考场你不得不知的潜规则
杭州雅思学员的逆袭缔造高分奇迹
英语专业学生的雅思听力85分经验
不限 |
英语教案 |
英语课件 |
英语试题 |
不限 |
不限 |
上册 |
下册 |
不限 |