和记电讯出售固网业务是好买卖吗

The market for mobile telecoms promises growth but teems with competition. So infrastructure investors are increasingly pegging their hopes on the greater stability of “wired” broadband businesses. An example: I Squared Capital has agreed to buy HGC, the fixed-line subsidiary of Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Telecom, for HK$14.5bn ($1.9bn). Shares in Hong Kong-listed Hutchison jumped 6.8 per cent to two-year highs.

移动通讯市场增长潜力巨大，但竞争激烈。因此，基础电讯设施投资者越来越多地寄希望于更稳定的“有线”宽带业务。一个例子是：I Squared Capital已同意以145亿港元（合19亿美元）的价格，收购李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)旗下和记电讯香港(Hutchison Telecommunications HK)的固网电讯业务子公司——和记环球电讯(HGC)。香港上市的和记电讯股价上涨6.8%，至两年高点。

Online TV offerings have helped demand for broadband connections delivered through fixed lines. The International Telecommunications Union estimates the number of fixed broadband customers grew 11 per cent to 884m in the year to 2016. The Asia-Pacific region is half the total, and grew faster.

在线电视节目提升了对通过固网提供的宽带连接的需求。国际电信联盟(ITU)估计，2016年，固网宽带用户数量增长11%，至8.84亿。亚太地区占总数的一半，且增长更快。

The fixed-line business is less competitive than mobile and comes with higher margins. This reflects subscribers’ inertia and a slower upgrade cycle. The difficulty of providing “last-mile” infrastructure provides a barrier to entry, too.

固网业务比移动业务竞争更少，利润率更高。这反映了用户的惯性和较慢的升级周期。提供“最后一英里”基础设施的困难也是进入这一领域的障碍。

Hutchison’s revenues shrunk 45 per cent last year, due to lower demand for new smartphones. The group has said that it wants to use the transaction proceeds to strengthen its market position in the mobile business. At a sale price of 36 times trailing earnings, there will be cash to support that. In October, Wharf Telecom sold its fixed-line business to a consortium including TPG at roughly 30 times prior year earnings. NetLink, the recently floated group that manages Singapore’s fibre network, trades at 39 times earnings but faces less domestic competition.

由于对新智能手机的需求下降，去年和记电讯的营收萎缩了45%。该集团表示，希望利用这笔交易所得的款项来加强其在移动通讯领域的市场地位。以36倍历史市盈率的估值出售，和记电讯将拥有现金来支持这种举措。去年10月，九仓电讯(Wharf Telecom)被出售给包括TPG资本(TPG Capital)在内的一家财团，售价约为上一年盈利的30倍。近期上市的NetLink的市盈率为39倍，但它面临的国内竞争较少。该集团负责运营新加坡的光纤网络。

Such high valuations might tempt other operators to monetise their broadband assets in order to throw more cash at winning market share in mobile. They should be careful. Hutchison will at least have a choice of fixed-line providers from which it can rent capacity once it has sold HGC. This is not the case in all jurisdictions. It may sometimes be more prudent to remain a monopolist than become a customer of one.

如此高的估值可能诱使其他运营商将旗下宽带资产货币化，以拿出更多现金争夺移动通讯领域的市场份额。他们应该慎重。出售了和记环球电讯，和记电讯至少可以选择租用哪家固网供应商的设施。但并非在所有司法管辖区都是如此。有时候，保持垄断者地位可能比成为垄断者的用户更为稳妥。