研究显示全球技术人才短缺

High-tech companies face a shortfall of some 40m skilled workers by 2020, with businesses based in China likely to be among the worst hit, according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute.

麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)的一项研究显示，到2020年全球高科技企业将面临约4000万技术人才缺口，位于中国的高科技企业所受打击将尤为沉重。

The institute – a research arm of the McKinsey strategy consultancy – says that manufacturing will be the sector of the global economy that will be most severely affected.

麦肯锡全球研究所指出，制造业将成为全球经济领域受技术人才缺口影响最为严重的领域。该研究所是战略咨询机构麦肯锡(McKinsey)的下属研究部门。

The specific difficulties that McKinsey foresees for China indicates that the country – which took over from the US last year as the world’s biggest manufacturing country by output – may have trouble continuing its fast rate of expansion in this sector.

麦肯锡特别预测中国将面临困境，这表明中国要想延续制造领域的快速扩张或有难度。按产量计算，中国去年超越美国成为全球第一的制造业大国。

Parts of manufacturing likely to suffer the most through the recruitment difficulties include the automotive, medical equipment and aerospace sectors.

汽车、医疗设备以及航空航天等制造业子板块受招工难的打击可能最为沉重。

The impact of the skills shortages in such industries is likely to worsen in the next few years, due to the failure by academic institutions to train enough people to high enough standards to keep pace with demand, said James Manyika, a director of the institute.

该研究所主管詹姆斯·马尼卡(James Manyika)指出，在这些制造业领域，技术人才短缺的影响未来几年将进一步加剧，原因是学术机构无法培养出足够多的合格人才以满足市场需求。

“The extent of the skills deficit will be a huge constraint on the ability of many companies to develop their businesses in the way they want, said Mr Manyika.

马尼卡表示：“技术人才短缺问题，将严重制约大量企业按照自身意愿拓展业务的能力。

In the McKinsey study, a high-skilled person is defined as someone who has gained a university degree or equivalent qualification – irrespective of discipline.

在麦肯锡的这项研究中，高级技术人才被定义为拥有大学文凭或同等学力的个体，所学专业不限。

However, the areas of expertise where employers are experiencing the worst problems in recruitment are in technical subjects highly relevant to manufacturing and other technology-based sectors including mining, hospital services and engineering design.

但用工企业目前在以下专业领域的人才招聘难度最大：与制造业紧密相关的技术类专业，以及采矿、医疗服务和机械设计等其他需要具备技术基础的专业。

Among large companies that have recently acknowledged they face difficulties recruiting sufficient people in fields such as engineering are the US industrial groups Boeing, Caterpillar and Honeywell and Rolls-Royce, the UK aero-engine supplier.

一些大公司近期承认在招聘机械等专业人才方面存在困难，包括美国的工业集团波音(Boeing)、卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)和霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)，以及英国航空发动机生产商罗尔斯·罗伊斯(Rolls-Royce)。

Of the 40m of unfilled vacancies for skilled workers that are projected by McKinsey to be evident by 2020, an estimated 13m are likely to be in manufacturing businesses, with the rest split up between a large number of other parts of the world economy.

在麦肯锡预计到2020年将产生的4000万技术人才缺口中，制造业领域的空缺将达到约1300万人，其余技术人才缺口则将分布在全球经济的大量其他领域。

According to the McKinsey consultants, China is likely to be the single country that suffers the most through a shortage of skilled workers.

麦肯锡的咨询师指出，中国很可能将成为受技术人才短缺打击最为沉重的国家。

By 2020, China will have an excess of demand for these people of some 22m.

到2020年时，中国技术人才短缺将达到约2200万人。

The remaining 18m shortfall will have an impact largely in the advanced industrialised regions – mainly western Europe, the US and Japan – according to the study’s authors.

这份研究报告的作者指出，其余1800万技术人才缺口将主要分布于发达的工业化地区——主要是西欧、美国以及日本。

McKinsey reckons that China’s specific problems stem from the economy growing so quickly that – in spite of the large numbers of people with high educational qualifications coming out of universities and colleges – the output of these men and women is unable to keep up with expanding requirements.

麦肯锡认为，造成中国技术人才缺口较大的原因在于，中国经济增长速度过快，以至于虽然中国高等院校培养出了大量具有高等教育学历的毕业生，但这些年轻人的生产力仍然无法满足经济扩张的需要。

By 2020, according to McKinsey, businesses based in China will require a total of 140m people with high skills – some 22m fewer than the numbers with the appropriate qualifications who will be available for these jobs.

麦肯锡预计，到2020年，位于中国的企业共需要1.4亿高级技术人才——较中国国内具有合适资质的可用劳动力人数多出2200万人。

This is in spite of the expectation that Chinese universities and equivalent academic institutions will produce some 5m graduates a year over the next few years in all disciplines.

这是基于未来几年中国的大学以及同等教育机构，每年将培养各专业毕业生约500万人的预期所作的推断。

“China is putting a lot of resources into education. But even so this is not enough to meet the requirements of an economy that, even if it has slowed down somewhat, is still expanding extremely fast [at 7-8 per cent a year] by the standards of most countries, Mr Manyika said.

马尼卡表示：“中国正在向教育领域投入大量资源。但即便如此也不足以满足中国经济的需要。虽然中国经济增长速度现已有所放缓，但相对于绝大多数其他国家而言，中国经济增长的速度仍然很快，年增速达到7%至8%。

Another difficulty for China stems from the changing balance of its population, with the ratio of old to young people growing rapidly.

中国面临的另一大困境来自于自身人口结构的变化，老年人口比例快速上升。

As a result, the numbers of people in their 20s entering the workforce – and potentially with high levels of education – are likely to be relatively small over the next few years relative to the country’s population.

受此影响，20多岁、可能拥有较高教育水平的新增劳动力人数，在未来几年中国人口中所占比重可能相对较校