嘉能可-斯特拉塔并购可能遭股东否决

The possible collapse of a plan to combine trading house Glencorewith miner Xstratawould lift the value of failed mergers in the natural resources industry to almost $1tn in the past decade.

交易所嘉能可(Glencore)与矿商斯特拉塔(Xstrata)一项合并计划可能破裂，这将把过去10年间自然资源行业失败的并购价值推高到近1万亿美元。

Bankers and industry executives say that the troubled Glencore-Xstrata merger is the latest in a series of deal setbacks, following an era of commodities mega-deals in the early 2000s.

银行家和业界高管表示，陷入困境的嘉能可-斯特拉塔并购案是一系列交易挫败中的最新一起。此前在21世纪最初几年大宗商品行业大型并购频繁。

They say acquisitions in mining, oil and gas have faced greater headwinds from lower raw materials prices, rising shareholder activism, higher regulatory scrutiny and financial market turmoil.

他们表示，采矿、石油和天然气行业的收购近期面临各种逆风，包括更低的原材料价格、股东维权意识增强、更为严格的监管审查以及金融市场动荡。

Marius Kloppers, chief executive of BHP Billiton, recently suggested that the prospect of significant M and A in the sector was small. In the case of BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining group, he added, the chance was “nothing to very low.

全球最大矿业集团必和必拓(BHP Billiton)首席执行官高瑞思(Marius Kloppers)最近表示，该行业出现重大并购的前景比较校他补充道，就必和必拓而言，可能性“不存在或者微乎其微。

The mining sector in particular has struggled to close big ticket M and A deals. According to Dealogic, a data provider, about $600bn in mining deals have failed since 2000, with the bulk of that figure in the past four years, after several high-profile deals, involving Xstrata, Vale, Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tintocollapsed.

采矿业尤其难以完成大型并购案。数据提供商Dealogic表示，自2000年以来，约有6000亿美元的矿产并购失败，其中大部分发生在过去4年，多宗令人瞩目的交易最终夭折——涉及斯特拉塔、巴西淡水河谷(Vale)、英美资源集团(Anglo American)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)以及力拓(Rio Tinto)。

If the Glencore-Xstrata merger is voted down today at a shareholder meeting in Zug, Switzerland, that will push the figure to $680bn. Barring an 11th-hour deal between Glencore and big independent shareholders that oppose the current terms, that is set to happen, according to people familiar with the matter.

如果今天嘉能可-斯特拉塔并购案在瑞典楚格召开的股东大会上被否决，将使这个总数达到6800亿美元。知情人士表示，除非嘉能可与反对现有条款的大型独立股东在最后一刻达成协议，否则这已成定局。

The oil and natural gas sectors have nearly $300bn in failed M and A since 2000. Moreover, some landmark mergers in the energy sector, such as the 2002 combination of Conoco and Phillips, have unravelled.

自2000年以来，石油和天然气行业已经失败的并购案近3000亿美元。此外，能源行业一些标志性的并购案最终不了了之。

Bankers say that the slowing of mega-deals has been in part a natural process as the industry has consolidated. “You cannot have a second act for Exxon and Mobil or BHP and Billiton, says a banker deeply involved in natural resources dealmaking. “The big deals are all done.

银行家表示，某种程度上，随着行业整合，超大型并购案是自然过程的一部分。一位深入参与自然资源交易的银行家表示：“不可能再出现埃克森与美孚、BHP与Billiton这样的并购案。大型交易都已经完成了。

However, industry executives and bankers caution that the high value of failed M and A deals in part reflects the fact that the sector has been especially busy during the past decade.

不过，业界高管和银行家告诫称，高额的失败并购交易，部分反映出该行业在过去10年尤为繁忙。

According to Dealogic, oil, gas, steel and mining companies have announced deals this year worth $350bn, more than double the $152bn of the real state sector, which ranks second in the M and A table of 2012.

Dealogic表示，石油、天然气、钢铁和采矿企业今年已经宣布的并购额达3500亿美元，是房地产行业1520亿美元的一倍多，后者在2012年并购排行榜上位居第二。

The start of the commodities super-cycle – a period of higher prices on the back of the industrialisation and urbanisation of China and other emerging countries – coincided with some of the most important deals of the natural resources industry, including the merger of BP and Amoco in 1998, Exxon and Mobil in 1999, BHP and Billiton in 2001 and a string of deals by Xstrata.

大宗商品超级周期（在中国及其他新兴国家工业化和城市化推动下的较高价格时期）的开端正赶上自然资源行业某些最重大的交易，包括1999年英国石油(BP)与美国Amoco的合并、2001年BHP与Billiton合并以及斯特拉塔的一连串交易。

Additional reporting by Helen Thomas and Anousha Sakoui in London

海伦·托马斯(Helen Thomas)、阿努沙·萨库伊(Anousha Sakoui)伦敦补充报道