人工智能大发展 50%职业未来将消失

From self-driving cars to carebots for elderly people, rapid advances in technology have long represented a potential threat to many jobs normally performed by people.

从自动驾驶汽车到为老年人设计的看护机器人，长期以来，对于某些通常由人类完成的工作来说，技术的迅猛发展一直是一个潜在的威胁。

But experts now believe that almost 50 per cent of occupations existing today will be completely redundant by 2025 as artificial intelligence continues to transform businesses.

而现在，专家相信，随着人工智能对商业的不断改变，到2025年，有近50%的现有职业将是完全多余的。

A revolutionary shift in the way workplaces operate is expected to take place over the next 10 to 15 years, which could put some people's livelihoods at risk.

在未来10-15年，职场的运作方式将发生一场变革，而这会威胁到一些人的生计。

Customer work, process work and vast swatches of middle management will simply 'disappear', according to a new report by consulting firm CBRE and China-based Genesis.

根据咨询公司CBRE和立足中国的Genesis公司的一项最新报告，客服、加工和大量的中层管理工作将会“消失”。

'Experts predict that 50 per cent of occupations today will no longer exist by 2025 as people will take up more creative professions,' said Martin Chen, Chief Operating Officer of Genesis.

Genesis首席运营官马丁·陈说：“专家预计，到2025年，50%的现有职业将不复存在，人们则会从事更富创造性的工作。”

'This means that jobs will evolve and so will real estate development.'

“这意味着工作会发生演变，房地产也会得到发展。”

Workspaces with rows of desks will become completely redundant, not because they are not fit for purpose, but simply because that purpose no longer exists, according to the report.

报告显示，成排摆放办公桌的工作场所将变得完全多余，这不是因为不符合实际用途的需要，而是因为需要本身已不复存在。

'The next fifteen years will see a revolution in how we work, and a corresponding revolution will necessarily take place on how we plan and think about workplaces,' said Peter Andrew, Director of Workplace Strategy for CBRE Asia Pacific.

CBRE亚太地区职场战略总监皮特·安德鲁说：“未来15年将见证我们工作方式上的革命，与之相应的，在我们对于职场的规划和考量方面，也必然会有所改革。”

A growing proportion of jobs in the future will require creativity intelligence, social skills and the ability to leverage artificial intelligence.

在未来，越来越多的工作要求创造性智慧、社交技能和利用人工智能技术的能力。

'And for most people that will be a route to happiness and fulfilment,' the report states.

报告指出：“对于大多数人来说，会有获得快乐和成就感的途径。”

'For many of us, artificial intelligence will be a tool to undertake tasks of a scale and complexity that were once unimaginable but which are now eminently possible and hugely rewarding.'

“对于我们中的许多人来讲，人工智能将成为一种用于承接任务的工具。从规模和复杂程度的角度出发，这些任务曾经是难以想象的，但现在已经极有可能完成并且具有极大的价值。”

The report - Fast Forward 2030: The Future of Work and the Workplace - is based on interviews with 200 experts, business leaders and young people from Asia Pacific, Europe and North America.

报告《快进2030：工作和职场的未来》是基于对亚太地区、欧洲和北美的200位专家、商界领袖和年轻人的采访撰写而成的。

Data in the US suggests that technology already destroys more jobs than it creates, as GDP has been able to grow faster than employment since 2000.

美国的数据表明，2000年以来，GDP的增长超过了就业率的增长，从而可以看出，技术毁掉的职业已经超过了其创造的职业。

But the report states: 'Losing occupations does not necessarily mean losing jobs – just changing what people do.'

不过报告指出：“失去职业并不等于丢掉工作，这只是改变了人们所做的是什么。”

TOP 20 JOBS AT MOST AND LEAST RISK OF BEING REPLACED BY ROBOTS

机器人最有可能替代和最不可能替代的20个职业

Jobs most at risk of being replaced

最有可能被替代的职业

Jobs least at risk of being replaced

最不可能被替代的职业

1) Telemarketers

1)电话营销员

1) Chiropractors

1)脊椎指压治疗师

2) Title Examiners, abstractors and searchers

2)标题审查员、摘录员和搜索员

2) Biochemists and biophysicists

2)生物化学家和生物物理学家

3) People working in sewers

3)下水道工

3) Electronics engineers, except computers

3)电子工程师（电脑除外）

4) Mathematical technicians

4)数学技术员

4) Directors, religious activities and education

4)主管（宗教活动和教育）

5) Insurance underwriters

5)保险承销商

5) Supervisors of correctional officers

5)惩教官主管

6) Watch repairers

6)修表工

6) Art directors

6)艺术总监

7) Cargo and freight agents

7)货运代理人

7) Orthodontists

7)矫形牙医

8) Tax preparers

8)报税员

8) Interior designers

8)室内设计师

9) Photographic process workers

9)摄影加工员

9) Producers and directors

9)制片人和导演

10) New accounts clerks

10)负责新开账户的职员

10) Photographers

10)摄影师

11) Library Technicians

11)图书管理员

11) Physical therapists

11)理疗师

12) Data entry keyers

12)数据输入员

12) Fashion designers

12)服装设计师

13) Timing device assemblers

13)定时装置装配工

13) Materials engineers

13)材料工程师

14) Insurance claims

14)保险理赔

14) Materials scientists

14)材料科学家

15) Brokerage clerks

15)经纪业务员

15) Soil and plant scientists

15)土壤和植物科学家

16) Order clerks

16)订单管理员

16) Health diagnosing and treating practitioners

16)健康诊断和治疗医生

17) Loan officers

17)贷款员

17) Civil engineers

17)土木工程师

18) Insurance appraisers

18)保险鉴定人

18) Physical therapist assistants

18)理疗师助理

19) Umpires, Referees, and sports officials

19)裁判员和体育运动官员

19) Architects, except Landscape and naval

19)建筑师（景观和造船除外）

20) Tellers

20)出纳员

20) Environmental Engineers

20)环境工程师