埃博拉传播地图: 英法危险大 中国暂无忧

Ebola already reached the US when a patient was diagnosed in Texas on September 30. But where is the disease likely to go next? A map from MOBS Lab and Northeastern University shows the risks.

9月30日美国德克萨斯州的一名病人被确诊后，这意味着可怕的埃博拉病毒已经扩散到了美国。那么接下来埃博拉最可能扩散到哪个国家呢？美国东北大学生物和社会技术系统模拟实验室的研究人员计算并制作了一张图表。

To develop these estimates, researchers used a computer model that tracks the frequency of international traffic to different countries, the progression of the disease in already affected countries, and the incubation time and other aspects of Ebola. The estimates will be updated as the epidemic continues.

为了得出这些预测，研究人员们使用计算机模型追踪自病原区西非向其他国家发出航班的频率、已受感染地区的疫情发展情况，以及埃博拉病毒的潜伏期等其他方面。这些预测信息会随疫情的发展而即时更新。

Outside of Africa, the risk is relatively high in the UK and France, but thankfully very low in India and China. The more advanced health-care systems in the UK and France are much better equipped to deal with an Ebola outbreak, while less advanced systems in China and particularly India, which also have considerably bigger populations to manage, could struggle to deal with an epidemic.

除了非洲地区，受埃博拉感染危险度较高的是英国和法国，相对较安全的是印度和中国。但是英国和法国的医疗保健系统更先进，所以对埃博拉疫情的防护可能也会更有效。而相比之下，中国尤其是印度的医疗保健体系不够完善，且国家人口数量庞大，因此不能对埃博拉掉以轻心。

Peter Piot, who helped discover and name the virus, told the Guardian about his concerns with an outbreak in India:

发现并对埃博拉命名的彼得•派奥特表示了他对印度地区爆发疫情的担忧：

But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.

“如果在欧洲或是北美爆发疫情则可以很快控制住。我更担心的是那些在西非工作或做生意的印度人。只要这其中有一个人受到感染，之后在潜伏期之内回印度探亲，这时候一旦他表现出症状，他就会去公共医院就医。而印度的医生和护士也都没有穿着防护服。他们可能会立刻受到感染并传染给其他人。”

As Vox's Julia Belluz previously explained, this is one of the nightmare Ebola scenarios that keeps scientists up at night. It's good, then, that the chance of Ebola spreading to India and China seems fairly remote.

正如VOX的茱莉亚之前解释过的那样，这种关于埃博拉扩散的假设是困扰研究人员的噩梦之一。还好，目前看来埃博拉病毒扩散至印度和中国的机会还比较小。