专栏：欧元区未解体原因何在？

The big story of 2012 has been the refusal of the euro zone to collapse, much to the frustration of those who bet heavily or staked their professional credibility on its demise.

欧元区免于解体可谓是2012年的一件大事。而对那些大举押注欧元区解体、甚至不惜赌上自己职业信誉的人来说，这无疑令他们感到格外失望。

It's amazing when one thinks back one year just how widely held was this belief in imminent eurogeddon. Many senior bankers, particularly in London and Frankfurt, privately believed Greece would be out of the euro in 2012; the chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland even said so publicly.

就在一年前，有关欧元区即将解体的看法还获得了普遍的支持，现在回过头去看未免会觉得不可思议。许多资深银行家，特别是那些在伦敦和法兰克福的银行家私下里都认为希腊将会在2012年退出欧元区。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的董事长甚至公开表达了这一观点。

At the Bank of England, some officials were convinced the euro would break up last Christmas and the BOE continued to assume a euro collapse for most of this year. Bearish economists such as Nouriel Roubini and Citigroup's Willem Buiter, who coined the term Grexit for a Greek euro exit, were feted like celebrities. Anyone who stood against this tide of conventional wisdom was assumed to be a starry-eyed europhile.

英国央行(Bank of England)的一些官员曾确信欧元区会在去年圣诞节解体，而英国央行今年大部分时间也都继续持欧元区会解体的观点。鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和花旗集团(Citigroup)的布伊特(Willem Buiter)等看空欧元区的经济学家曾为希腊退出欧元区创造了“希腊退欧(Grexit)一词，他们获得了明星般的追捧。任何不认同这一普遍看法的人都被认为是过分乐观的“恋欧癖者。

These euro bears have since had to perform what journalists call a reverse ferret. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are back to their lowest levels since mid-2011, Ireland looks on track to regain full market access next year, Greece has received substantial debt relief and foreign investors are starting to dip their toes back into peripheral euro zone bond markets.

此后，这些看空欧元的人不得不突然转变立常西班牙和意大利国债收益率目前已重回2011年年中以来的最低水平，爱尔兰明年有望重新全面利用债市进行融资，希腊获得了大规模债务减免，外国投资者开始重新小心翼翼地进入欧元区外围国家的债市。

It's hard now to find a senior banker or official who thinks the euro zone will break up next year. The Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Review still sees risks but these are now in the medium term. True, Citigroup still expects Greece to eventually leave the euro zone, but it has reduced the probability to 60% and pushed out its forecast time until mid-2014, which was probably as far as it could go to reverse its extreme position without looking ridiculous.

现在认为欧元区明年将解体的高级银行家或官员寥寥无几。虽然英国央行最新一期《金融稳定评估报告》(Financial Stability Review)认为欧元区解体的风险依然存在，但它目前认为这只是中期风险。不错，花旗仍预计希腊最终将退出欧元区，但它已经将这种可能性降低到60%，并将自己预测的希腊退出欧元区时间推迟至2014年年中，花旗此举或许既能让它得以扭转以往的极端立场，又不显得荒唐可笑。

Of course, the euro crisis isn't over. Just because the bears got it wrong in 2012 doesn't mean they won't be right eventually. Some warn the current market calm is dangerous because it might lead to renewed complacency.

毫无疑问，欧元区危机尚未结束。看空者2012年错了，但并不能仅凭这一点就说他们最终将是错的。一些人警告说，目前的市场平静局面是危险的，因为这可能导致自满情绪死灰复燃。

This is a valid concern. But in trying to assess where the risks lie, it is important to understand why the bears have been wrong so far. After all, the euro zone actually performed worse in 2012 than even the gloomiest forecaster predicted, and the Greek economy collapsed more completely than anyone believed possible.

这种担忧不无道理。但在试图评估风险所在时，有必要弄明白看空者目前为止为何都是错的。毕竟，2012年欧元区的情况实际上比最悲观的预测者所预计的还要糟，希腊经济的崩溃程度也比任何人料想的都更严重。

Yet the bears underestimated the near-impossibility of unraveling the single currency, the determination of the European Central Bank to avoid catastrophe─with its offers of unlimited support to banks and governments─and the sheer political will, in the core and the periphery, to hold the bloc together.

然而，看空者低估了欧元区解体的不可实现性，低估了欧洲央行(European Central Bank)避免欧元区解体的决心（该行承诺会向银行业和政府提供无限支持），也低估了欧元区核心国家和外围国家避免欧元区解体的强大政治意愿。

Events have so far shown the central assumption underlying the doom scenario to be flawed. Many bears assumed the scale of internal devaluation─economic adjustment via reductions in domestic wages and prices─needed to make financially stressed euro-zone countries competitive would be too great for a modern democracy to bear.

迄今为止的事态发展显示，欧元区解体观点背后的核心假设存在缺陷。很多看空者都想当然地认为，使财政紧张的欧元区国家能够具有竞争力的内部贬值，会因其需要的规模过大而令现代民主制国家难以承受。内部贬值指的是通过国内工资和价格的下调进行的经济调整。

As a result, they argued the only alternative to a euro breakup was a full-blown political and fiscal union based on a mutualization of debts and massive fiscal transfers that was probably impossible to achieve.

于是他们认为，避免欧元区解体的唯一其他方法是在共担债务和大规模财政转移的基础上建立一个全面的政治及财政联盟。而这种联盟或许是难以实现的。

In fact, the most significant discovery of the year has been the extent to which financially stressed euro-zone countries have borne the cost of internal devaluation. The euro area navigated through every major 'do-or-die' political challenge it faced this year, not least the Greek elections, which delivered a coalition committed to fulfilling the bailout conditions even in the midst of a deep depression.

事实上，这一年最重要的发现，是欧元区财政困难国家在多大程度上承担了内部贬值的成本。欧元区克服了今年面临的每一场“不成功便成仁的重大政治挑战，其中不得不说的是希腊的选举。通过选举，希腊诞生了一个立志在深度衰退期间也要满足救援条件的联合政府。

So does the euro zone really still need to create a full-blown political union that commands little public support? Probably not. The key question is whether the current policy mix of fiscal discipline and structural overhauls, aided by ECB support, will deliver the growth needed to bring debts under control and create the jobs required to ensure continued political support for the euro.

那么，欧元区真的还需要创建一个公众支持率很低的全面政治联盟吗？恐怕不需要。关键在于，目前以财政约束和结构化改革为内容的政策组合，在欧洲央行的支持之下，能否带来控制债务、创造就业所需的经济增长。而唯有创造就业，才能确保欧元继续享有政治上的支持。

Where one stands on this question hinges partly on what one believes is driving the euro-zone economy.

对这个问题给出什么样的回答，一定程度上取决于一个人认为推动欧元区经济增长的因素是什么。

The pessimistic view is that the euro zone is in the grip of an austerity-induced downward spiral from which there is no sign of escape. This view─encouraged by the International Monetary Fund's analysis of fiscal multipliers and shared by some typically skeptical of Keynesianism─suggests the periphery's debts will ultimately prove unsustainable.

悲观的看法是，欧元区已经陷入财政紧缩导致的下行螺旋之中，没有逃脱的迹象。这种看法受到国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)财政乘数分析的鼓舞，也是一些通常对凯恩斯主义持怀疑态度的人士的观点。依这种看法，事实将证明外围国家的债务终究是不可持续的。

The alternative view is that the euro zone is suffering a balance of payments crisis caused partly by a loss of competitiveness and fueled by doubts over the euro zone's survival. On this analysis, the removal of those doubts combined with steps to boost competitiveness will allow capital to return to the periphery and borrowing costs to come down.

另一种观点则认为，欧元区遭遇了一场国际收支危机，竞争力丧失是其中的一个原因，而人们对欧元区能否继续存在的怀疑，又让危机火上浇油。根据这种分析，如果消除这些怀疑并采取措施提高竞争力，资本就可以回到外围国家，借款成本就可以下降。

The fact that foreign investors are returning, bond yields are falling and financially stressed euro-zone countries are regaining competitiveness─albeit at a terrible price in high unemployment─suggests the optimists may be vindicated again in 2013.

外国投资者在回归，债券收益率在下降，欧元区财政困难国家在重拾竞争力（只不过付出了高失业的可怕代价）。这样来看，2013年乐观派或许会再次胜利。

Particularly encouraging is the growth of Spanish exports, which have matched those of Germany and contributed to a balance of payments surplus. With a fair wind from the global economy, the hope is that the euro zone can pull out of recession in the second half of 2013 once the latest fiscal measures have worked through the system.

尤其鼓舞人心的是西班牙出口的增长速度。它已经赶上了德国的增长水平，并促成国际收支实现盈余。一旦最新一轮财政措施落实到位，借助国际经济形势的东风，2013年下半年欧元区真有可能摆脱衰退。

But there is one risk often ignored by both sides: while economists tend to pay little attention to banks, policy makers are increasingly realizing that the ability of the financial system to extend credit is crucial to recovery. The Bank of England last week demanded a major review of U.K. bank balance sheets amid concerns that an impaired banking system is causing the economy to turn Japanese, starving healthy businesses of credit.

但有一个风险常被双方忽略：经济学家往往不太关注银行，而政策制定者却越来越意识到，金融系统能否提供信贷是复苏的关键所在。英国央行上周下令对英国银行业资产负债表做一次重大检讨。它担心金融系统受损会使经营良好的企业拿不到贷款，造成英国经济的日本化。

Yet there is little sign of similar anxiety in the euro zone, despite a banking system heavily dependent on central-bank funding. Even after last week's restructuring plan, Spanish banks will still require 350 billion ($455 billion) of ECB funding, creating a powerful incentive for them to continue to shrink their balance sheets, potentially hurting business lending.

但欧元区很少看到存在同样的担忧，尽管它的银行系统严重依赖于央行提供的资金。在上周实施重组方案之后，西班牙银行仍然需要从欧洲央行融资3,500亿欧元（合4,550亿美元），这会使它们产生继续收缩资产负债表的强大动力，可能不利于面向企业的贷款。

The real danger is that a weak banking system continues to undermine the recovery, creating exactly the kind of political pressures the bears have warned about for so long. The solution must lie partly in the creation of a new single euro-zone banking supervisor with real powers to intervene to force banks to strengthen their balance sheets and shut down failed institutions

真正的危险之处，是银行系统的疲态继续阻碍复苏，进而产生悲观派长期警告的那种政治压力。问题的解决必须包括新建一个欧元区银行监管机构，这个机构要拥有出手干预的实权，可以强制要求银行夯实资产负债表，并关闭运转不下去的金融机构。

Euro-zone finance ministers will discuss this proposal again in Brussels this week. This is one piece of integration they cannot afford to flunk. The euro's survival may yet depend on it.

本周在布鲁塞尔，欧元区的财政部长们将讨论上述方案。这个方面的一体化容不得他们失败。欧元的生死存亡可能就寄托在上面了。