明年美国就业形势看好

Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.

美国就业市场笼罩着重重阴云──特别是遭遇增税、减支双重打击的可能性，即“财政悬崖。

But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.

但如果美国能够避开由华盛顿造成的这一危机，明年劳动者找工作的前景实际上还相当不错。首先，超级飓风“桑迪(Sandy)造成的破坏将需要修复，这样就会带来建筑业和零售业的工作机会。与此同时，因为财政前景的不确定性而暂停投资和招聘和企业可能最终打开钱包。这也意味着会有新的就业机会出现。

Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That's a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.

最近雇主已经加大招聘力度。劳工部数据显示，10月份新增就业岗位17.1万个，今年以来平均每个月增加15.7万个。这个速度高于去年，并且是2006年以来最强劲的就业增长。

Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.

当然，劳动力市场的复苏一直是渐进的，并可能保持这种状况。就业增长速度就需要在目前基础上大大提高，才能让失业率真正大为改观。失业率虽然低于三年前的10%，现在仍然高达7.9%。

The government's next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government's jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.

政府将于本周五发布新的就业市场报告，此次的报告将因飓风“桑迪而出现失真。10月下旬的飓风给东北地区造成严重破坏，使很多人失业。经济学家说，“桑迪有可能导致11月官方就业岗位总数暂时减少10万到15万个，这样一来，就业增量就不足10万，甚至还要低很多。

But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal's latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. 'I think businesses are going to have to hire,' said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.

但经济学家总体上预计，一旦飓风造成的失真消失，前段时间的趋势就有望恢复并延续。接受《华尔街日报》最新月度调查的45位经济学家预计，到明年6月，失业率将降至7.8%，2013年年底将降至7.5%。部分经济学家说，就业增长可能会摆脱现在的缓慢速度而加快。信安环球投资有限公司(Principal Global Investors)经济学家鲍尔(Bob Baur)说，我觉得到时候企业将必须招人。

Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:

以下四个因素应该会对2013年的就业复苏起到推动作用：

Housing is finally recovering.Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There's 'a significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,' notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It's not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.

楼市终于出现反弹。S&P/Case-Shiller指数显示，2012年前九个月全国房价上涨7%。与此同时，住宅建筑业正在发力，给建筑工人、承包商和建筑商带来了更多工作机会。5月份以来建筑工作增加了2.9万个左右。券商Miller Tabak & Co.经济学家威尔金森(Andrew Wilkinson)指出，建筑市场的就业环境已经明显解冻。解冻的不只是建筑业。为装修住宅的美国人提供服务的零售企业也将需要招人。

Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation's debt and deficits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.

联邦、州和地方政府的裁员速度开始放缓。去年各级政府部门有逾25万人失去工作。今年截至目前，约有两万人找到了工作。经济学家说，美国的债务和赤字问题引发的担忧可能将限制政府支出和投资，但基础设施支出的任何反弹都会创造就业岗位。至少政府带来的拖累会减校

Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. 'Business has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,' Principal Global's Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.

消费者的感觉变好。由于就业市尝楼市和股市状况的改善，消费者信心达到四年来的最高水平。美国陷入衰退后，美国人缩减债务，避免借钱并推迟购买。这意味着消费者需求增强的条件可能已经具备，进而可能促使停止招聘的企业开始扩员。信安环球投资有限公司的鲍尔说，企业可能尽可能地提高生产力增长，他表示雇主将需要增员来满足更强劲的需求。

Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America's factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benefits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.

制造业及休闲和酒店服务业应会继续创造就业岗位。美国的工厂是复苏早期的推动者，尽管增长放缓，工厂应该会继续有选择地扩员。继2010年每月增加约9,000个就业岗位之后，今年以来制造业每月增加约1.6万个就业岗位。欧洲、日本和中国经济增长放缓损害了全球贸易流。但最近，更多公司高管开始意识到，在美国制造比在中国等地制造好处更多。与此同时，包括酒店在内的休闲服务业整年都是就业岗位增长的一个可靠来源。

The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.

就业市场面临着挑战。约有500万美国人失业已有六个月之久，技能退化令他们未来更难找到工作的风险也加大。此外，收入增长放缓引发的担忧可能会限制企业招聘。据咨询公司CEB今年10月进行的一项调查显示，约有36%的美国高管预计其公司的职员人数会减少；相比之下，今年夏天这一比例为29%。

Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.

不过，从乐观角度看，阻碍复苏的几个拦路虎──身负重债的消费者、半死不活的楼市和心有余悸的银行──已经不再对招聘造成负面影响。除非经济受到意外的打击，否则这可能意味着2013年将又是一个缓慢但稳定的增长之年。