三招轻松搞定退休大计

England's blustery Dorset coast seems an unlikely setting for retirement planning lessons, but actually it's perfect. That's where this summer's Olympic sailboat races will take place, and viewers new to sailing will learn a surprising fact: You can sail into the wind. You need to tack in ways that aren't necessary when the wind is behind you, but do it right and you'll move bracingly fast.

英格兰狂风咆哮的多塞特郡海岸看起来不像是开设退休计划课程的地方，可实际上没有比这里更理想的地方了。今夏奥运会的帆船比赛将在这里举行，而帆船运动的新观众将学到令人吃惊的新知识：我们居然可以迎风前行。不过和顺风时不同，我们必须抢风行驶，但如果行动得当，前进的速度简直令人振奋。

That's retirement planning today. You're feeling virtually all the financial winds right in your face. Strapped governments at every level will be giving you fewer services and taking more from you in taxes and fees. Inflation may be creeping up. Employers will continue the long-term trend of whittling retirement security by freezing or abolishing the few remaining defined-benefit pension plans and reducing company contributions to 401(k) plans. As for your investment portfolio -- forget those reassuring historical stock market returns of around 11% annually and note that recent years have been far grimmer: The S&P 500 (SPX) is right where it was more than 12 years ago, in January 1999. Warren Buffett assumes Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) pension plan will earn a modest 7.1% a year.

那就像如今的退休计划。感觉所有的金融风暴都扑面而来。深陷其中的各级政府提供的服务越来越少，而缴税和收费却越来越多。通货膨胀继续爬升。雇主冻结、取消剩余为数不多的确定收益的养老金计划，同时还减少了公司对401(k)计划（美国公司的工资储蓄投资养老计划——译注）的缴纳金额，从而延续削减退休保障的长期趋势。至于我们的投资组合，忘记令人欣慰的股票市场历史回报率吧，近年的数据比11%悲惨得多：标普500（the S&P 500）和12年多以前的1999年1月一样。股神巴菲特认为伯克希尔哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）公司的养老金计划每年回报将只有区区7.1%。

One more fact: You'll probably live longer than you expect, a wonderful thing in every way except financially. New research from the Society of Actuaries finds that 57% of pre-retirees underestimate life expectancy from their current age, while only 28% overestimate. Your nest egg may have to last much longer than you thought.

另一个事实：你很可能活得比预期长，真是大好事，当然，钱这个问题除外。北美精算学会（Society of Actuaries）新近的研究发现：57%的前退休人员在其当前年纪低估了预期寿命，而高估者仅有28%。我们的储蓄需要维持的时间也许比当初计划的长得多。

Those are formidable headwinds. Yet as the Olympic sailors will remind us, you're not condemned to being blown backward. The right tactics will propel you ahead even now. Think of your practical next steps in three categories.

这些都是可怕的逆风。然而就像奥运会帆船选手提醒我们的那样，我们并不是命中注定会被吹到后退。只要有正确的策略，现在我们都可以逆风前行。想一想下一步，不外乎下面三个类别。

Save smarter

更聪明地存钱

In today's low-yield environment, most of us must salt away more. Easy to say, hard to do. If your employer hasn't adopted the Save More Tomorrow program, urge it to do so; and if it won't, then follow the program on your own. Developed by UCLA business professor Schlomo Benartzi and behavioral economist Richard Thaler, it lets employees pre-commit to saving more every time they get a pay raise. It works -- participants save much more than nonparticipants.

今天的收益率这么低，在这样的大环境下，大多数人必须留出更多储蓄。说起来容易做起来难。如果你的雇主还没有采用Save More Tomorrow储蓄计划，敦促它赶快采用，如果它不愿意，你可以自行执行该计划。加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）商学院教授施罗默•伯纳兹和行为经济学家理查德•塞勒制定了这个计划，让雇员预先承诺每次涨工资都留下更多储蓄。这个方案是可行的：参与者的储蓄比非参与者多得多。

In choosing your saving rate, face the new reality of inflation. Experts debate whether years of monetary loosening in the U.S. and other major economies will push up prices significantly, but ignoring the risk would be foolish. Suppose you'd like your portfolio to pay you $100, 000 a year (in constant dollars) for 30 years. With an after-tax return of 6% and inflation at 2%, a nest egg of $1.82 million will do the job. But if inflation turns out to be just one point higher than you assumed, at 3%, you'll need another quarter million dollars.

选择储蓄率的时候还要考虑通货膨胀的新现实。专家还在为美国和其它经济体长达数年的货币宽松政策是否会严重推高物价这个问题争得不可开交，但忽视这个风险极其愚蠢。假定你希望投资组合在30年中每年支付你10万美元（按不变美元计）。如果税后回报6%，通胀2%，你只需182万美元的储蓄就够了。但如果通胀最终比你假定的高一个百分点，达到3%，你就需要额外的25万美元来完成退休计划。