今年下岗落谁家: 美国办公室职员岗位大减

The US has gained 387,000 managers and lost almost 2m clerical jobs since 2007, as new technologies replace office workers and plunge the American middle class deeper into crisis.

自2007年以来，美国管理者岗位增加38.7万个，办公室职员岗位则减少近200万个，新技术取代了办公室员工，让美国中产阶级陷入更深的危机。

New data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics divide the US workforce into 821 jobs from dishwasher to librarian.

美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labour Statistics)的最新数据将美国劳动力划分为821种工作，从洗碗工到图书管理员。

They show rapid structural shifts – on top of a cyclical unemployment rate of 7.7 per cent – that may drive up income inequality.

这些数据显示，快速结构性变化——再加上7.7%的周期失业率——可能会加剧收入不平等状况。

The figures help explain why the US median household income has fallen 5.6 per cent since June 2009 to $51,404, even as the economy recovers. The top 10 per cent of American earners, meanwhile, are collecting most all the fruits of the recovery.

这些数据有助于解释，即便在经济复苏之际，美国家庭收入中值自2009年6月为何仍下滑5.6%，至5.1404万美元。同时，收入最高的10%美国人正收获大部分经济复苏的成果。

One likely cause of rising inequality is new computing technologies that destroy some middle-class occupations even as they create jobs for highly-skilled workers who can exploit them.

收入不平等加剧的一个可能原因在于，新的电脑技术摧毁了一些中产阶级岗位，即便它们为能够利用这些技术的高技能员工创造了就业。

The number of clerical workers such as book-keepers, tellers, data entry keyers, file clerks and typists has been falling, pointing to structural decline. The number of retail cashiers has dropped, an indication that internet shopping and self-checkout systems may be eroding another occupation.

簿记员、出纳员、数据录入员、档案管理员和打字员等办公室职员岗位的数量一直下滑，说明其出现结构性下降。零售收银员岗位数量下降，表明互联网购物和自助结账系统可能正在侵蚀另一项职业。

Jobs growth came from healthcare, management, computing and food service jobs. The number of personal care aides is up by 390,000 since 2007. Demand for people who figure out how to replace clerical workers – such as operations managers, management analysts and logisticians – grew substantially.

就业增长来自医疗、管理、计算机和食品服务岗位。自2007年以来个人护理助手的数量增加了39万。对于掌握如何代替办公室职员的人才（例如运营经理、管理分析师和物流专员）的需求大幅上升

“We see growth in jobs that require complex, personalised interactions – such as home health aides – and continued declines in routine transaction and production jobs that can be scripted and automated,” said Susan Lund, co-author of a McKinsey Global Institute report on the future of work.

麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)一篇有关工作未来的报告的联合作者苏珊•兰德(Susan Lund)表示：“我们看到，需要复杂且个性化互动的工作岗位有所增加，例如家庭健康助理，而可以编程和自动化的常规交易和生产工作继续减少。”

But salaries for many of the fast-growing occupations are lower than those they are replacing. The average wage for a clerical job in 2017 was $34,410 compared with $24,550 in personal care. The average computing wage was $80,180 and $108,570 for managers.

但很多增长迅速的职业的薪资水平低于被取代的工作岗位。去年，办公室职员的平均年薪为3.4410万美元，而个人护理工作为2.4450万美元。计算机工作的平均年薪为8.0180万美元，管理者为10.8570万美元。

However, Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, noted that even high-skill job growth has slowed in the last decade. “People focus a lot on occupational trends but it’s not clear to me that they are what’s driving wage outcomes. What I think is going on is much bigger . . . employers have the upper hand in every area of work.”

然而，位于华盛顿的经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)所长劳伦斯•米舍尔(Lawrence Mishel)指出，过去10年，甚至连高技能工作的增速也有所放缓。“人们大量关注于职业趋势，但我并不清楚，这些趋势是否在推动薪资结果。我认为，另一个趋势要重大得多……雇主在每个工作领域都占了上风。”

The shift shows how hard it will be for policy makers to halt or reverse the rise in income inequality. Clerical workers still account for 16 per cent of US jobs, and technology is likely to keep on eliminating them.

这一变化表明，政策制定者要阻止或逆转收入不平等状况加剧将有多么困难。办公室职员工作仍占美国全部工作岗位的16%，科技可能会继续削减这些工作。