智能手表能给苹果带来36亿美元

From a patent Apple filed in 2011.

苹果2011年申请的一项专利。

Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago.

彼得巴罗斯是一位有着二十多年从业经验的资深科技记者。在他带领下，彭博公司（Bloomberg）在三周前的《纽约时报》（New York Times）和《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）对苹果公司（Apple）iWatch所做报道的基础上，再次对此进行了深入挖掘。

Bloomberg's contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people "familiar with the company's plans," that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad.

根据两位“熟悉苹果公司计划”的知情人士透露的线索，彭博在第一周发表了一篇报道。报道称，苹果调用了100位产品设计师，正在开发一款腕表式的设备，能执行一些目前由iPhone和iPad完成的任务。

Monday's piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement.

星期一的这篇报道分析了智能手表行业。互联网上有一种普遍观点：现在没人戴手表了，除非是把它当成一种时尚表达。相比之下，这篇文章的看法非常独特。

Among the points the Bloomberg story makes:

彭博这篇报道的主要观点如下：

Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013.

手表是个大产业。2013年全球手表业销售额将达600亿美元。

Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apple's comfort zone.

手表业利润丰厚。手表的毛利率大概是60%，对苹果来说正中下怀。

Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions.

手表产业比电视产业更有吸引力。手表的利润率大概是电视的四倍。

Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word "wrist" in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen that's powered by kinetic energy.

苹果对手表很感兴趣。苹果公司已取得79项含有“手腕”这个词的专利，包括一款带有折叠屏、动能驱动的设备。

Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apple's chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches.

乔纳森艾夫尤其感兴趣。身为苹果的首席设计师，他拥有众多高端手表。2000年中，他率队造访了耐克公司（Nike），带回来耐克的一款运动手表，数量多达好几箱。

The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives.

恰逢良机。2003年，微软（Microsoft）和时尚品牌Fossil在智能手机上的合作流产了。但时至今日，用户比以往更习惯在生活中使用手机应用。

Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloomberg's sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related data, such as heart rates.

据彭博社的一位知情人士透露，苹果这款手表正在开发的性能包括：打电话、查看来电人身份、查看地图坐标、计算步数（用内置步数器）、以及监控心率等健康信息。

Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apple's existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below.

如果苹果能在这个总额高达600亿美元的大市场中获得10%的份额，而且毛利率达到60%，彭博预测，苹果能够在这款智能手表身上拿到的营收将高达36亿美元。而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂休伯蒂做了类似预估，同时提出，苹果每年因此获得的增量营收为100亿到150亿美元，这个预测假定苹果现有客户中，20%的人每两年会买一个。请看她的图解。