中国出口商开始囤积美元

Many Chinese exporters are starting to hoard the dollars they earn, betting that the yuan is unlikely to appreciate much more, a shift in strategy that is having a ripple effect throughout the country's financial system.

中国很多出口企业预计人民币不太可能再大幅升值，因此开始囤积它们的美元收入。这种策略正在对全国金融系统产生连带影响。

Until recently, Chinese exporters like state-owned Huihong International Group and privately held Saijia Co. had rushed to sell their dollar earnings to banks as soon as they got paid, in exchange for the appreciating yuan. Now, because the Chinese currency no longer seems certain to rise, those companies are holding their dollars for as long as they can.

相关报道在过去，像国有企业江苏汇鸿国际集团、民营企业江苏赛佳股份有限公司这样的中国出口企业都是在收到付款后赶紧将其美元收入卖给银行，换取正在升值的人民币。现在因为人民币似乎不再肯定会升值，这些公司都在尽可能长时间地留存美元。

"In the past, we would exchange our dollar earnings for renminbi on the same day we received the payment," said Fang Minghua, head of Saijia, a company in eastern China's Jiangsu province that sells clothing to the U.S., Australia, Japan and Europe. "Now, we're not in the rush to sell' dollars, Mr. Fang said. 'We would like to wait and see."

江苏赛佳董事长房明华说，过去我们会在收到付款的同一天把美元兑换掉，现在我们不着急卖，宁愿等等。赛佳向美国、澳大利亚、日本和欧洲市场出口服装。

That change has broad implications not just for Chinese companies, but also for China's banks, which are finding themselves with less foreign currency on reserve. For four months in the past eight months, the banks sold more foreign currency than they bought, a sign of the shift in corporate China toward holding dollars.

这种变化不仅对于中国企业，对于中国银行业也都有着广泛的影响。银行的外汇储备正变得越来越少。过去八个月中，银行有四个月都是出售外汇多于买入外汇，这意味着中国企业界在朝着持有美元的方向转变。

Because companies aren't converting their dollars to yuan, fewer yuan are flowing into the economy. That has prompted the People's Bank of China to slash the banks' reserve-requirement ratio, known as RRR, three times since November to help banks lend more. The ratio measures the share of deposits banks are required to hold as reserves.

因为企业不把美元兑换成人民币，流入经济领域的人民币减少。这促使中国央行从去年11月以来三次下调银行存款准备金率，帮助银行贷出更多资金。存款准备金率指的是银行按要求向中央银行缴纳的存款准备金占其存款总额的比例。

"To some extent, the changes made by corporate treasurers are having an impact on China's monetary policy," said He Weisheng, a Shanghai-based analyst at Citigroup Inc.

花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)驻上海分析师贺伟晟说，企业财务人员所做的调整在一定程度上影响着中国的货币政策。

Chinese companies started to rejigger their foreign-exchange strategies late last year, when the yuan came under pressure from a global rush for dollars and other currencies historically viewed as havens.

中国企业外汇策略的调整始于去年年底。当时全球投资者纷纷买进美元和其他传统上被视为避险资产的货币，使人民币承受压力。

China keeps a tight rein on the yuan, also known as the renminbi, by keeping it trading in a preset band. The yuan gained 4.7% last year against the dollar and has jumped about 25% since its revaluation in 2005. It has dipped 1% so far this year, and traded at about 6.3575 against the dollar late in Asia on Thursday.‪

中国严格控制着人民币的汇率，只让它在一个预先设定的范围内波动。去年人民币对美元升值4.7%，自2005年汇改以来已经升值25%左右。今年以来贬值1%，周四亚洲市场尾盘报1美元兑人民币6.3575元。

The recent weakness has come after China loosened the yuan's daily trading limits in April, one of the most significant moves to liberalize the currency since mid-2010. Many analysts recently have dialed back their expectations for yuan appreciation this year to less than 2% from a previous forecast of roughly 3%.

人民币在近期走软之前中国央行在今年4月放宽了人民币对美元的每日交易区间，这是自2010年年中以来人民币自由化迈出的最为重大的步伐之一。很多分析师近期将他们对今年人民币升值幅度的预期从此前大约3%下调至不到2%。

"Given the way renminbi trades these days, it makes sense for exporters to hold onto dollars as opposed to rush to sell dollars, and for importers to switch from borrowing dollars to buying dollars to pay their foreign suppliers," Xu Peng, an official at Huihong International, a state-owned textiles company that earned about $500 million from sales overseas last year.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images国有纺织企业江苏汇鸿国际集团的一位负责人徐鹏说，鉴于人民币目前的交易行情，出口企业持有美元而不是急于抛售是有道理的。进口企业从借入美元向买入美元转变以便向国外供应商支付有关款项也合情合理。去年汇鸿国际集团从海外销售中赚得了大约5亿美元。

PBOC officials have indicated that banks' foreign-exchange positions play a major role in the central bank's decision to reduce banks' reserve requirements. At a news conference in March, PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan indicated such cuts are a tool to offset the impact of companies hoarding dollars.

中国央行官员表示，中资银行的外汇头寸对央行是否决定降低银行存款准备金率起到重要作用。在今年3月的一场资讯发布会上，中国央行行长周小川表示，降低银行存款准备金率是为了抵消企业囤积美元所带来的影响。

"Theoretically speaking, there is much room for RRR cuts," Mr. Zhou said at the time, while noting that any adjustment of the ratio would depend on how banks' foreign-exchange positions and the balance of international payments affect market liquidity.

周小川当时说，从理论上讲，现在下调银行存款准备金率还有很大的空间。但他同时指出，存款准备金率的任何调整将取决于银行的外汇头寸以及国际收支平衡如何影响市场流动性。

A report issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, said China could further cut the ratio as the broad money supply has grown more slowly this year. Rapid growth in the money supply tends to lead to inflation.

中国政府顶级智库中国社会科学院本月发布的一份报告说，中国可能会进一步下调银行存款准备金率，因为今年广义货币供应量增速大幅下滑。货币供应量的迅速增加往往会导致通货膨胀。

That recommendation joined other calls for more monetary loosening to help businesses cope with a credit squeeze that has plagued small businesses in the past year, rather than for the government to unleash another large stimulus package like the one launched during the previous global financial crisis.

上述建议和其它呼吁政府放宽货币政策以帮助企业应对信贷紧缩的提议相呼应。在过去一年中信贷紧缩一直困扰着小企业。这一次各方并不建议政府再推出一轮类似上一次全球金融危机期间推出的大规模经济刺激计划。

When the yuan was rising strongly, Chinese importers settling their payments in dollars preferred to borrow, rather than buy, dollars from banks. In the past decade, Chinese companies have accumulated about $800 billion in debt from such borrowing, Citigroup's Mr. He estimates.

当人民币强劲升值时，用美元支付款项的中国进口企业倾向从银行借入而不是买入美元。花旗集团的贺伟晟估计，在过去十年中，中国企业向银行借入美元而产生的债务规模累计达到约8,000亿美元。

A typical strategy would involve a company depositing yuan on the mainland and using it as collateral to borrow dollars. The company would make money on the difference between the high Chinese deposit rate and the low dollarborrowing rate, also booking a gain from the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.

一个典型的操作手法是，一家公司将人民币存在内地，并将此作为抵押品向银行借入美元。这家企业能够赚取较高的人民币存款利率和较低的美元贷款利率之间的息差，同时还能从人民币对美元汇率的升值中获益。

"It had been a very profitable strategy throughout the years as the yuan appreciated steadily," Mr. He said. "Now, however, it bears the question how this "short-dollar" position would impact the market when the outlook for yuan appreciation becomes murkier."

贺伟晟说，在人民币稳步升值的那几年，这一直是一个非常有利可图的策略。但如今在人民币升值前景变得更为黯淡的情况下，这种做法受到质疑，即这种“卖空美元”的做法将如何影响市场。