资源民族主义引发担忧

Resource nationalism is making commodity prices more volatile and threatens global security, warns Chatham House, the think-tank, in a report.

智库英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)在一份报告中警示，资源民族主义将让大宗商品价格更加动荡不定，从而威胁全球安全。

The report, based on new data on commodity trade flows, highlights how international politics has come to dominate resource markets.

这份报告以大宗商品贸易流通的新数据为基础，凸显了国际政治对资源市场的主导。

“Every country for itself resource grabs mean that markets do not respond properly to higher prices. That threatens trade wars, environmental degradation and famine in poorer countries unless the world finds new ways to govern resources.

“各国只为自己的资源争夺意味着，市场不会对更高的能源价格做出合理的反应。如果世界不能找到新的方式来管理资源，这可能导致贸易战、环境退化，以及贫困国家的饥荒。

“When countries and governments think they may be running out of cheap resources, they try to keep more for themselves, says Bernice Lee at Chatham House in London, pointing to export controls on food and state companies that buy up resources abroad.

伦敦英国皇家国际事务研究所的李永怡(Bernice Lee)在谈到食品出口控制和国有企业买断海外资源时说：“当各个国家和政府想到他们的廉价资源可能耗尽时，他们会试图多为本国留一些。

For example, countries such as China, Ukraine and Argentina responded to the surge in food prices in 2008 with taxes or controls on the export of grain.

比如说，2008年粮价大涨期间，中国、乌克兰、阿根廷等国就对粮食出口实施征税和管制。

Export controls can trigger similar actions in other countries, driving up prices, and creating a crisis of confidence that spreads from one resource to the next.

出口控制可能会导致其他国家类似的行动，抬高价格，造成对资源的信任危机，在各种资源之间传导。

They also make price volatility worse and reduce investment in new production because exporters cannot access high international prices, governments often tax windfall profits from price rises, and fluctuating prices increase risk and raise the cost of capital.

由于出口商无法与较高的国际价格接轨，这会导致资源价格更不稳定，并减少对新生产的投资。而政府往往又通过征税从价格上涨中获益，波动的价格增加了风险和资金的成本。

“The market signals are not right for investment in these long-term projects, says Ms Lee.

李永怡说：“从长期项目来看，市场信号对投资并不有利。

There has also been an increase in expropriations and investment disputes over resource assets in emerging economies. Chatham House warns that “escalating trade wars over resources could overwhelm the dispute settlement regime at the World Trade Organisation.

在资源资产方面，新兴经济体出现了越来越多关于征用和投资上的争议。英国皇家国际事务研究所警示：“不断升级的资源贸易战可能让世界贸易组织(WTO)的争端解决机制不堪重负。

The report highlights how the rise of emerging economies has reshaped resource trade and created new interdependencies, notably oil from the Middle East to China, but also wheat from Russia and Ukraine to the Middle East, and palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia to China and India.

这份报告还强调，新兴经济体的崛起是如何重塑资源贸易并形成新的互相依赖模式，特别是中东出口到中国的石油，俄罗斯和乌克兰出口到中东的小麦，马来西亚和印度尼西亚出口到中国和印度的棕榈油。

Soyabean exports from the US and Brazil to China are now the largest agricultural trade relationships in the world. Flows to China of iron ore from Australia and copper from Chile are the largest in metals.

美国和巴西对中国的大豆出口是目前世界上规模最大的农业贸易。澳大利亚对中国的铁矿石出口和智利对中国的铜出口是最大的金属贸易。

Chatham House points to the concentration of some resources in a few countries.

英国皇家国际事务研究所特别提到了一些资源集中在少数国家的现象。

“The question is not whether Opec will continue to exist, but whether it will be joined by new international cartels in other resource markets, it says.

该智库指出：“问题不是石油输出国组织(OPEC)是否会继续存在，而是在其他资源市场是否会形成新的国际联盟。

The report suggests new mechanisms to reduce the impact of commodity price shocks. For example, it suggests that grain and oilseed producers such as the US should buy options from their biofuel industries, letting them divert food back to human consumption when prices rise.

这份报告还提出了降低商品价格冲击影响的一些新机制。比如美国等粮食和油料生产国应该从本国的生物燃料行业购买期权，在价格上涨的时候，将食品重新转变为用于人类消费。

It calls for the integration of China and India into existing mechanisms to share oil in an emergency and for compulsory stockholding reports by metals traders to reduce speculative bubbles and panic buying.

报告还建议中国和印度融合到现有机制中，在紧急时刻共享石油，并建议对金属贸易商实行强制性的持股信息披露要求，以减少投机性泡沫和恐慌性抢购。