微博预测股市晴雨 准确率可达八成

Millions of messages about trivial matters are posted on Twitter every day, but one group of hedge fund managers are using them as a crystal ball for market fluctuations - and it's having a big impact.

很多无关紧要的事情每天都会在微博客上，但是却有一组套保基金的管理人员将它用作预测市场波动的水晶球，并且，影响巨大。

Analysts at London’s Derwent Capital Markets - described as 'Europe's first social media-based hedge fund' - has launched a ?25million fund based on research that suggests tweets foretell whether markets will go up or down.

在被描述为欧洲第一的社会媒体的伦敦达文特资本市场的分析家发起了一个2500万的立足于研究的微博客能否真正预测市场走向的基金。

It shows that if the mood of the population goes up, the market follows. The Mayfair company use a program that scans Twitter for keywords to work out what the world's 'mood' is - and invest money accordingly. And so far the results have been positive.

它显示出如果人们的情绪呈上升趋势，那市场亦同。梅菲尔公司运用了一个能监视微博客关键词的程序，希望用这个能看到世界情绪的变化，然后相应的进行资金投资。并且到目前为止情况都很乐观。

The Twitter-analysis program was written by Johan Bollen, professor of informatics and computing at Indiana University and he used it to predict market movements at the Dow Jones in New York with 87.6 per cent accuracy last October.

这个微博客的分析程序是由印第安纳大学信息和计算系的教授约翰·保伦完成的。他用这个来预测纽约股市的道琼斯指数，并且在上个10月份达到了87.6%的准确率。

Mr Bollen explained how his software can give fund managers the edge: ‘We recorded the sentiment of the online community, but we couldn't prove if it was correct. So we looked at the Dow Jones to see if there was a correlation. We believed that if the markets fell, then the mood of people on Twitter would fall.

保伦先生解释了他的软件是怎样能给那些基金专家提供帮助的：“我们记录那些在线社区上的人的情绪变化，但是我们却不能证明那些是不是正确的。所以我们就主义者道琼斯指数，看看他们之间是不是有关系。我们相信如果市场不太景气，那么，微博客上的人的情绪也相应的会进入低潮期。”

‘But we realised it was the other way round - that a drop in the mood or sentiment of the online community would precede a fall in the market.'

“我们也同样意识到微博客上人们情绪的低落与市场的不景气相比，到来的更早。”

Paul Hawtin, Derwent's founder and fund manager, said: ‘Investors have always accepted that markets are driven by sentiment, mainly fear and greed. When people are greedy the markets go up and when they are fearful they go down.

达文特的创建者和基金的经理保罗·哈丁，说“投资者已经都接受说市场其实是被人们的情绪所左右的，主要是害怕和贪心。当人们普遍存在渴望的时候，市场就会呈现上升趋势；而当人们心存恐惧的时候，市场就会呈下降趋势。”

It looks, then, like Derwent could be on to a good thing, but computers aren't always reliable - as per biologist Paul Ehrlich's quote, 'To err is human - but to really foul things up requires a computer.'

看起来，这样的东西似乎是很好的，但是同时电脑又不是那么可信，就如一位生物学家保罗·欧利希引用“人无完人”说，其实真正犯错的有可能是电脑。

Earlier this year director and writer Dan Mirvish noticed that whenever actress Anne Hathaway was in the news, stocks in Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway rose sharply.

今年的早些时候，丹·马维舒注意到不论何时当安妮·海瑟薇出现在资讯里的时候，在华伦·巴菲特的公司的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票就会疯涨。

Mr Mirvish believes it’s because robotic trading programmes are registering mentions of ‘Hathaway’ and wrongly assuming it’s for Berkshire Hathaway.

马维舒先生相信这是因为这个自动的系统错将海瑟薇认成了哈撒韦。

Mirvish cites six other examples of similar spikes, including for when Anne Hathaway movies Rachel Getting Married, and Alice in Wonderland premiered.

同时，马维舒先生也举了另外其他六个和这个类似的例子，这其中包括当安妮·海瑟薇的电影雷切尔的婚礼，结婚大作战和爱丽丝漫游奇际首映的例子。