财政悬崖面前 以不变应万变

With a number of potential tax changes at stake for investors in the 'fiscal cliff' negotiations, financial adviser Andrew Millard is giving all of his clients the same advice: You're better off doing zilch, zippo, nothing.

“财政悬崖谈判中涉及的多项税率调整关系到投资者的切身利益。理财顾问米利亚德(Andrew Millard)对所有客户都给出了同样的建议：最好是什么都别做。

'I think it's a sucker's game to act on what you think [Congress is] going to do,' says Mr. Millard, whose firm is in Tryon, N.C.

米利亚德说，我觉得，如果猜测国会将采取何种措施，然后根据这种猜测来调整投资，你就上当了。他的公司位于北卡罗莱纳州的特赖恩(Tryon)。

But based on the stock market's behavior over the past few weeks, attitudes like Mr. Millard's are in the minority. Fifty-four percent of investors surveyed this month by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research said they viewed the fiscal cliff as the biggest threat to the economy, up from 42% in October. And analysts say investors' obsession with the cliff has been the main catalyst for a wave of volatility that followed President Barack Obama's re-election on Nov. 6.

但从过去几个星期的股市表现来看，米利亚德这样的态度属于少数派。美银美林环球研究(BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research)这个月的调查显示，54%的投资者认为财政悬崖是对经济的最大威胁，高于10月份的42%。分析师说，投资者心里放不下这个悬崖，这是奥巴马(Barack Obama)11月6日当选连任以来市场出现波动的主要催化剂。

The market gyrations reflect investor jitters over the fact that political control remains split among a Democratic White House and a divided Congress, says Alec Young, global equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ. That split has made the outlook for a deal cloudier, adds Mr. Young: 'We've been on this psychological roller coaster.'

S&P Capital IQ全球股权策略师扬格(Alec Young)说，市场的起伏反映投资者对这样一种情况的担忧：政治控制权仍被民主党白宫和分裂国会分割。扬格说，这种分裂使达成协议的前景变得更加渺茫，于是我们坐上了心理过山车。

For stock investors, the anxiety is certainly understandable. Taxes on capital gains and dividends are set to rise if a compromise isn't reached, and the Obama administration has said it wants to include increases in those rates for wealthier taxpayers in any final deal. Under current rules, capital-gains tax rates would increase from 15% to 20% for higher-earning investors on Jan. 1, while rates on dividend income could jump from 15% to as high as 43.4%.

股市投资者的这种焦虑当然是可以理解的。如果达不成妥协，资本利得税和股息税就会增加，而且奥巴马政府也曾说过，不管最后达成什么协议，它都希望其中包含对富人提高税率的条款。根据现行规则，高收入投资者的资本利得税率可能将在1月1日从15%提高到20%，股息税率则有可能从15%增至最高43.4%。

Nonetheless, Mr. Millard isn't alone in believing that a wait-and-see stance is preferable to a hasty selloff. Investors who sell stocks now to avoid higher taxes later would still trigger a capital-gains tax hit that could eat into their savings, says Michael Garry, managing member of Yardley Wealth Management in Newtown, Pa. And investors who flee from dividend-paying stocks would need to find other income-generating havens─at a time when yields on many bonds and other investments hover near zero. 'You could be making moves that make things worse for you,' Mr. Garry says.

不过，不止米利亚德一人相信按兵不动是其他投资者仓促抛售之际的良策。宾夕法尼亚州纽敦市财富管理公司Yardley Wealth Management基金经理盖瑞(Michael Garry)说，现在抛售股票以逃避今后更高税率的投资者仍然会受到资本利得税的打击，其储蓄可能遭到蚕食。投资者抛掉派发股息的股票后，将需要寻找其他能带来收益的避险资产，而此时许多债券和其他投资的收益率都徘徊在近零水平。盖瑞说，你的行动可能会让自己的处境更加不利。

That doesn't mean investing pros are sitting on their hands. Many say they are still making their usual year-end tax moves, such as rebalancing portfolios by selling stocks that have had strong runs and adding to sectors that look attractively valued. For clients who are adamant about locking in today's capital-gains rate, Jeff Feldman, a financial adviser with Rochester Financial Services in Pittsford, N.Y., is selling some winning stocks, and then immediately buying them back. That way his clients can pay taxes at today's lower rates, while resetting their portfolios' 'cost basis' so that taxes on future gains will be smaller.

这并不是说专业投资者都按兵不动。很多人说，他们仍然在采取通常的年底避税措施，比如通过卖掉表现不错的股票、增持估值诱人的行业来实现投资组合的再平衡。对于坚持要锁定当前资本利得税率的客户，纽约州皮茨福特Rochester Financial Services理财顾问费尔德曼(Jeff Feldman)的办法是抛售一部分升值股票，然后马上买回。这样一来，他的客户可以按当前较低的税率纳税，同时重新设定投资组合的“成本基础，从而减少将来的资本利得税额。

Of course, many investors may be undergoing a 'deer in the headlights' moment in which they are too uncertain to act. That could be a good thing, says Stephen Biggs, a financial adviser based in Lafayette, Calif. The market could rally if lawmakers reach a deal, and investors who sell their holdings now could miss out on those gains. 'Now is the time to stay invested,' Mr. Biggs says.

当然，很多投资者可能是像“汽车大灯照射下的鹿一样，惊慌之下不知道该怎么办。加利福尼亚州拉斐特(Lafayette)的理财顾问比格斯(Stephen Biggs)说，这可能是一件好事。如果国会议员达成协议，市场有可能反弹，现在抛售的投资者就有可能错失行情。比格斯说，现在应该继续把钱放在市场里面。