2013：全球冲突依旧

In the Middle East, it will be a rough year that will hinder Barack Obama’s “pivot towards Asia. And there is even more unpleasant news: the Assad regime in Syria seems to be slipping towards its end but that is likely to lead to greater chaos. A military resolution, as opposed to a diplomatic one, will mean a violent power struggle and a period of sectarian retribution. The omens are also inauspicious in Iraq and Libya, where there seems a high likelihood of increased instability, power struggles and anti-western sentiment.

就中东而言，2013年将是艰难的一年，巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)将美国战略重心转向亚洲的计划也将因此受到妨碍。更加令人头疼的消息是：叙利亚的阿萨德(Assad)政权看来正在走向倒台，不过，那很可能会引发更大的混乱。通过军事手段而不是外交方式来解决叙利亚问题，将会导致充满暴力的权力斗争以及一段时期的派系复仇。在伊拉克和利比亚，也出现了不祥的兆头：看上去，那两个国家很可能会变得更加动荡，权力斗争和反西方情绪很可能会升级。

This is likely to drag the focus of western diplomacy back to the unfinished business of these three struggling countries and away from any renewed concentration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Iran’s nuclear programme. On the latter, those who have declared that the Iranian nuclear issue would be brought to a head this year may therefore be disappointed.

这一切很可能会促使西方把外交重心转回到这三个“问题国家未竟的事业上，巴以冲突或伊朗核计划受到的新关注将因此减少。就伊朗核问题而言，那些宣称该问题将成为今年极为紧要之事的人可能会因此失望了。

In Africa, even the International Monetary Fund has jumped on its growth story. It is a more useful lens to look at Africa through than that of poverty and aid failure. But it disguises the challenges ahead. At least a quarter of Africa’s growth will come directly from energy and minerals, and a lot more still from their impact on other sectors. Across the continent, governments and decent oil and mineral companies with a long-term mindset are struggling to contain the dangers of corruption. This resource boom could make, or unmake, the continent.

就非洲而言，现在就连国际货币基金组织(IMF)也开始看好它的增长。这一点要比贫穷和援助失败更能反映出非洲的现状。但它也掩盖了非洲面临的挑战。非洲的增长至少会有四分之一直接来自于能源部门和矿产部门，而且还有更大比例的增长仍将来自于这两个部门对其他部门的影响。在整个非洲大陆，各国政府以及那些有长远眼光的正派的石油和矿产公司，正在艰难地抑制腐败的危险。资源繁荣既能够成就、也能够毁掉非洲大陆。

Meanwhile, in Asia, demographic pressures are bringing up old border disputes. Income inequalities are widening, leading to social protest. Consumer and dietary changes along with urban growth are aggravating water and food scarcities.

与此同时在亚洲，人口压力正使旧有的边界纠纷重新成为热点。收入不均正在加剧，并且引发了人们的抗议。消费者以及膳食结构的改变，再加上城市的扩张，正在加重水和粮食的短缺。

And in Latin America, Hugo Chávez may be on the way out but Chavismo is doing better than Washington commentators hoped. Narcotics and inequality are still undermining the dream of many for a more stable middle class and for a resurgence in democratic politics.

在拉美，乌戈·查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)也许即将淡出历史舞台，但查韦斯主义(Chavismo)的生命力却超出了华盛顿评论人士的预期。在这块大陆，许多人都梦想着打造更稳定的中产阶级并复兴民主政治，然而毒品和不平等仍在破坏这一梦想。

Mark Malloch-Brown is chairman of global affairs at FTI Consulting, and author of “The Unfinished Global Revolution. He is a former UN deputy secretary-general and vice-chairman of the World Economic Forum.

本文作者是富事高商务咨询(FTI Consulting)全球事务主席，著有《未完成的全球革命》(The Unfinished Global Revolution)一书。他还担任过联合国(UN)副秘书长及世界经济论坛(WEF)副主席。