无人机行业能否安全起飞

This month an autonomous drone made a 13-minute flight over the British countryside to drop off an Amazon television-streaming stick and a bag of popcorn to a customer near Cambridge.

上个月，一架自动无人机在英国乡村上空飞行13分钟，给一位剑桥附近的客户递送了一部亚马逊(Amazon)流媒体电视棒和一袋爆米花。

At one level, the delivery was little more than a quirky publicity stunt to demonstrate the potential of technology. But it also confirmed Amazon’s deadly serious intent to develop a delivery infrastructure that could yet revolutionise the logistics industry.

从一个层面来看，这次投递只是一次新奇的宣传手段，展示了科技的潜力。但它也证实，亚马逊极其严肃的开发递送基础设施的意愿可能会给物流行业带来革命。

“I know this looks like science fiction. It’s not,” Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, told a television interviewer in 2016, revealing the company’s drones programme. “It will work, and it will happen, and it’s gonna be a lot of fun.”

“我知道这看上去像是科幻小说。并非如此。”亚马逊创始人杰夫•贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)在2016年的一次电视采访中透露了该公司的无人机计划，他告诉采访者，“它是可行的，它会实现的，它会带来很多乐趣。”

The holy grail of the logistics industry has always been to solve the “last mile” challenge, the trickiest and most expensive link in the delivery chain. Amazon Prime Air could be part of the solution. Drone operators claim their deliveries can be quicker, safer and greener than most other options.

物流行业的终极难题一直是解决“最后一英里”挑战，这是递送链最复杂且成本最高的一环。亚马逊Prime Air可能是这个解决方案的一部分。无人机运营商声称，与多数其他选择相比，无人机送货可能会更快、更安全且更环保。

If the necessary infrastructure were in place, drones could be used for the bulk of Amazon’s deliveries. According to Mr Bezos, Amazon’s drones can deliver packages weighing up to 5lb (a little over 2kg), covering 86 per cent of the items it delivers.

如果必要的基础设施到位，可以用无人机完成亚马逊的绝大多数投递业务。贝索斯表示，亚马逊的无人机可以递送最重5磅（2公斤多一点）的货物，可以满足其递送商品的86%。

The critical question is whether that infrastructure will ever be built. Will we allow the mass use of commercial drones over populated areas? Can we envisage a day when thousands of commercial drones buzz through our cities delivering parcels to specially designated drop-off points on rooftops and in car parks?

关键的问题是这些基础设施是否会建立起来。我们是否会允许在人口稠密的地区大规模使用商用无人机？我们能否设想有一天数千架商用无人机嗡嗡地飞过城市上空，把包裹投递到屋顶和停车场的专用降落点？

In many countries, we are at the beginning of a fumbling triangular dance between operators, regulators and the public about the safety and acceptability of such deliveries.

在很多国家，运营商、监管者和公众围绕这种快递方式的安全性和可接受性的笨拙角力刚刚开始。

Operators argue that commercial drones have been successfully used for years in sparsely populated areas of the world. In the early 1980s the Japanese pioneered the use of drones to spray pesticides on rice fields. Energy companies regularly use drones to survey remote oil pipelines, damaged power lines and wind turbines.

运营商辩称，商用无人机在全球人口稀少的地区已成功使用多年。上世纪80年代初，日本率先使用无人机向稻田喷洒杀虫剂。能源公司经常利用无人机勘察遥远的石油管线、受损的电力线路和风力涡轮。

Their use is particularly effective in parts of the developing world where drones can leapfrog poor conventional infrastructure. Rural parts of Rwanda are already benefiting from drone-delivered, time-sensitive medicines.

这些用途在发展中国家一些地区尤为有效，在那里无人机可以超越薄弱的传统基础设施。卢旺达的农村地区已受益于用无人机投递有时效性的药品。

A recent report by PwC highlighted the speed at which the industry is developing, identifying 200 drone manufacturers globally. “The drone sector is on the verge of becoming a mass industry, with enormous potential to disrupt various types of business,” it concluded.

普华永道(PwC)最近的一份报告突显出该行业发展的速度，报告确定全球有200家无人机制造商。报告总结称：“无人机行业正接近成为一个大规模行业，有着颠覆各种行业的巨大潜力。”

But allowing autonomous commercial drones to deliver customers’ parcels in cities would cross a perception threshold. It would certainly be the most visible — and possibly controversial — use of the technology so far.

但允许自动商用无人机在城市递送客户包裹将跨越一个认知门槛。这肯定是迄今这项技术最明显也最可能备受争议的用途。

Regulators in some countries, such as the UK, Japan and Poland, are adopting an accommodating approach, encouraging drone operators to experiment provided they meet defined safety standards. However, other countries — most notably the US — are far more cautious about whether to allow operators to fly autonomous drones beyond the line of sight.

英国、日本和波兰等一些国家的监管机构正采取包容政策，一旦无人机运营商符合规定的安全标准，就鼓励它们进行试验。然而其他国家（特别是美国）对于是否允许运营商让自动无人机飞到视线以外要谨慎得多。

Ed Leon Klinger, chief executive of Flock, an early stage start-up company serving the drone industry, says the UK is at the forefront of global thinking on commercial drone use. “The drone industry is developing at an incredible pace. We will see drones in cities within three years,” he predicts.

为无人机行业提供服务的早期初创企业Flock的首席执行官埃德•莱昂•克林格(Ed Leon Klinger)表示，英国处于商用无人机应用全球思考的前沿。他预测：“无人机行业正以惊人的速度发展。我们将在3年内在城市看到无人机。”

His company, which provides real-time data analytics on weather and traffic conditions to operators, enables drones to fly more safely and smartly in cities and helps insurance companies price risk.

他的公司向无人机运营商提供有关天气和交通状况的实时数据分析，能够确保无人机在城市更安全和更智能地飞行，并帮助保险公司为风险定价。

Even though regulators and operators are learning to bump along together, the public appears to be trailing a long way behind. One of the commercial drone industry’s biggest fears is that irresponsible hobbyists will destroy public trust in the technology before responsible operators can prove themselves. Public concern is rising about how hobbyist drones have been used to snoop on neighbours, deliver drugs to prisoners and endanger aircraft. Securityservices are already installing “geofences” around sensitive sites

尽管监管机构和运营商正共同探索，但公众的意识似乎远远落后。商用无人机行业的最大担忧之一是，在负责任的运营商能够证明自己之前，不负责任的爱好者会破坏公众对于这项技术的信任。公众对于爱好者利用无人机窥探邻居、为犯人递送毒品并危及飞机安全的担忧正在加剧。安全机构已在敏感地区设置“地理栅栏”，阻止无人机飞越上空。