Global warming may make the northernmost oceanless productive, not more so
全球变暖可能降低最北部海域的活力,而不是使之更有生命力。
ON SEPTEMBER 16th 2012, at the height of the summer melt, the Arctic Ocean s ice sheethad shrunk to an area of 3.41m square kilometres, half what it was in 1979.
2012年9月16日当天已经达到了夏季海洋冰面融化的温度,北冰洋的冰盖缩小到了341万平方公里,这个数字只有1979年冰盖面积的一半。
And its volume had shrunk faster still, to a quarter of what it was in 1979, for the sheet isgetting thinner as well as smaller.
而且,冰盖的面积仍旧以越来越快的速度在减少,将来的面积仅仅只有1979年总面积的四分之一。
One culprit is global warming, which is fiercer at the poles than elsewhere.
造成这种情况的原因之一就是全球变暖,全球变暖的后果在两极地区更为明显。因为冰盖正在越来越薄,也越来越小。
The world s average temperature in 2012 was nearly 0.5C above the average for 1951-80.
2012年全球的平均温度比1951-1980年的平均温度高了约0.5C。
In the Arctic, it was up almost 2C.
而在北极,平均温度则高了近2C。
This sudden warming is like thepeeling back of a lid to reveal a new ocean underneath.
突然的变暖像一个被剥离的盖子一样,给人们呈现了一个新的海底世界。
That prospect is spreading alarm and excitement.
这种情形正在向周围发出警报,也让全世界兴奋不已。
Though most of the excitement has been about oil and gas, and the opening of sea routesbetween the Atlantic and the Pacific, some people hope for a fishing bonanza, too, aswarmth and light bring ecological renewal to what is now an icy desert.
虽然,最让人兴奋的是发现了石油和天然气,还有大西洋和太平洋之间海上航线的开通,但是还是有一些人希望,在人们通过温暖和光明对现在这个冰冷沙漠进行生态重建时,也能带来渔业的发展机会。
But they may be disappointed.
但是他们可能要失望了。
At the moment, the waters around the Arctic account for a fifth of the world s catch.
目前,北极附近海域的捕获量占世界总和的五分之一。
There are few fish, however, under the ice itself.
然而,在北极冰面下很少有鱼。
A fishing bonanza would require big ecological change.
渔业的发展机遇将需要极大的生态改革。
Arctic Frontiers, a conference organised at the University of Tromso in January, looked athow warming will change the ecology, to estimate whether it will bring one about.
今年一月,由特罗姆瑟大学主办的北极前沿会议上,讨论了全球变暖将会对北极生态产生的变化,以预测是否有利于渔业的发展。
The consensus was that it won tnot because the Arctic will change too little, but because itwill change too much.
达成的共识是不,不是因为北极几乎没什么变化,而是因为北极的变化太大。
Change and decay
改革和衰退
At first sight, this is counterintuitive.
乍看之下,这简直违背常理。
As the ice melts, more light can reach the water, and that means more photosynthesis bymarine algae.
当冰块融化时,水中将会有更多的光线,那就意味着海藻可能进行更多的光合作用。
In the past, algae began to grow under the ice sheet in May and continued to do so until lateSeptember.
过去,当五月来临时,冰下的海藻开始生长,整个生长期会持续到九月末。
Now, such growth starts in mid-March and continues until October.
现在,海藻在三月中旬就开始生长,生长期会持续到十月。
These ice algae, attached to the sheet itself, account for half the mass of living things inArctic waters.
这些依附于冰盖生长的冰藻数量占了北极海域生物中的一半。
Much of the rest is unattached algae, known as phytoplankton, and tiny animals, known aszooplankton.
而其它大多数是独立生长的海藻,被称为浮游植物,还有被称为浮游动物的小动物。
Both sorts of plankton support, directly or indirectly, the fish and mammals that live in theArctic Ocean.
同时,这两种浮游生物都直接或间接地供养了生活在北冰洋的鱼类和哺乳类动物。
And the plankton, too, are flourishing thanks to global warming.
而且,由于全球变暖也让这些浮游生物大量繁殖。
The Arctic phytoplankton bloom, which used to run from June to September, now runs fromApril to September.
以前,北极浮游生物的大量繁殖期是六月到九月,而现在繁殖期则早在四月就开始了,直到九月才结束。
The upshot is more plankton, farther north.
结果是越往北,浮游生物越多。
That attracts more fish.
于是就吸引了更多的鱼类。
In 2000 Atlantic cod were caught throughout the Barents Sea.
2000年,在巴比伦海域捕获了大西洋鲟鱼。
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