geoengineering 和全球变暖
据美国《连线》杂志报道,本周部分科学家及政府官员将齐聚加利福尼亚州的阿西洛马,商讨地理工程学(geoengineering)在未来是否会对气候变化带来不利影响这一议题。然而,如今事实情况是,为了能够更好的生存,人类在过去已对地球做出了许多地理改造,并且负面效应也已出现。
据悉,人类的文明社会,当前社会的一切繁荣、富强、发展、进步都发生在全新世。全新世开始于1万年前,人类为了更好的生存,不断建设水利、开垦良田、建造城市,并且形成文明。在这个过程中,人类逐渐地对地球进行了各种地理工程改造。全新世对于人类具有十分重要的意义。
如今,人类改造地球会造成何种后果还不得而知,但科学家认为,目前全新世已不复存在,人类目前处于人类世 。这是一个新的地质纪元,在这个纪元,人类的活动正威胁着地球的自我调节能力。此外,人类此前对地球所做地理工程学改造已出现弊端。
Thegeoengineering genie
MasonInman
Likeany human endeavour, geoengineering carries hefty doses of uncertainty, doubtand fear.
Howto Cool the Planet: Geoengineering and the Audacious Quest to Fix Earth s Climate by Jeff Goodell
Onlya couple of years ago, geoengineering seemed like science fiction. Somescientists talked about cooling the planet using massive shields to reflectsunlight back into space or by loading the atmosphere with aerosols(汽雾剂 [ ??r?s?l]), but few thought of theseplanetary-scale projects as real contenders(竞争者) foraverting climate catastrophe. But perhaps because thechallenge of mitigation is now fully recognized geoengineering has gone mainstream. Increasingly, scientists areturning their attention to it: last month at the Asilomar conference centre inMonterey, California, experts met for the first time to consider how the fieldcan be regulated. Meanwhile, governments are holding parliamentary hearings onthe subject and venture capitalists are looking to it as an investmentopportunity.
I don t especially want to work on geoengineering. But now that thegenie is out of the bottle, I feel I have to, saysclimate modeller Raymond Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago in EliKintisch s Hack the Planet,one of the first books to cover this burgeoning ([ b?:d??ni?]增长迅速的,发展很快的)subject for apopular audience. Though potentially capable of rapidly reducing temperatures,the numerous technologies that come under the geoengineering umbrella wouldprobably have unintended and potentially disastrous consequences. Despite its promise and perils(危险,冒险), however, geoengineering is a virtual([ v?:tju?l]事实上的,实际上的,实质上的 )unknown among the general public, so Kintisch s book and another,Jeff Goodell s How to Cool the Planet, both published this month, have come at a crucial time. These twofast-paced tours through the science of geoengineering will help inform growingdebates about whether governments should fund large research projects intoclimatic cooling and about how the various methods might be tested.
BothGoodell and Kintisch make it clear that geoengineering is at best(充其量,至多)a complement to drastic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions. We have to immediately launch a worldwide program to stop pollutingour atmosphere with this surprisingly pernicious(有害的,有毒的;恶性的,致命的)trace gas, Kintisch argues. Most scientists feel much the same, viewinggeoengineering strictly as a possible emergency backup plan that should be usedonly if things get really dire. And because of the risks involved, the idea ofdoing field trials, especially of technologies for so-called solar radiationmanagement that is, blocking out sunlight in one wayor another is still contentious(爱争论的,有异议的;引起争论的)among scientists. But Goodell makes astrong argument in favour of at least some limited tests. He tells the tale ofCharles Hatfield, a travelling rainmaker who won acclaim across the UnitedStates in the early 1900s. When Hatfield tried to bring rain to San Diego andtorrential(奔流的;猛烈的;汹涌的)floods ensued( [in?sju:]接着发生,接踵而来,因而产生), he was hounded out of the city, his reputation in tatters(衣衫褴褛的;被粉碎的;彻底破产的). With geoengineering, writesGoodell, it might be smart to begin sorting good ideasfrom bad, lest we fall under the spell of another generation of CharlesHatfields. That is, if we do the research, thenperhaps we ll decide that some methods are best forgotten.
Hackthe Planet: Science s Best Hope or Worst Nightmare for Averting Climate Catastrophe by Eli Kintisch
Dangerousjourney
Forthe time being, however, all of the existing plans and proposals are just armchair geoengineering, as Kintisch putsit. And the cast of armchair geoengineers is still very small. The result isthat both books cover a lot of the same ideas and quote many of the samesources, and both have in-depth chapters about two particular options:fertilizing the oceans with iron, and ships spewing cloud-brighteningparticles. Kintisch s book, though, offers up more examples of geoengineering.One is a proposition by the nonprofit Ice911, started by California-basedengineer Leslie Field, to protect sea ice from melting by covering it withsacks full of silicon beads. Another is a scheme put forward by atmosphericscientist Brian Toon, who proposes modifying coal-fired power plants to belchthe chemical carbonyl sulphide at ground level, from where, Toon figures, itwill eventually be carried up to the stratosphere([ strt?usfi?]【气】同温层;平流层) and turn intolight-reflecting sulphates.
Kintischalso digs deeper than Goodell into explaining the details of how geoengineeringmight work and why it would be so difficult to dowell. A reporter for the journal Science who regularly covers geoengineeringfor the journal s ScienceInsider blog, Kintisch likewise takes an insider sview in Hack the Planet. That s not to say Kintisch argues in favour ofgeoengineering, but that he writes from firmly within the world of science, andfor an audience who s comfortable with science, too. He never explains the term hack in the title, for example, which is borrowed from computer hacking andreflects the idea that geoengineering involves interfering with fundamental aspectsof the climate to change how the whole system works. For this reason,scientists and other science-literate readers especially those who already have some familiarity with geoengineering will probably prefer Kintisch s book over Goodell s.
Incontrast, Goodell s book takes a step back, presenting an outsider s view unsurprising, as he is a regular reporter for Rolling Stone, themusic and politics magazine. This perspective allows Goodell to be a guide tothose who might reject the whole idea of geoengineering as far-fetched orcrazy. You don t need a Ph.D. in physics to understandthe basic insanity of this undertaking, Goodellwrites, while emphasizing that the outlook for the planet is so bad that wehave to think about these options anyway. Of the two authors, Goodell does abetter job of taking the reader on a journey. Most chapters in How to Cool thePlanet feature a central character, from geoengineer David Keith tinkering inhis lab at the University of Calgary to environmentalist and scientist JamesLovelock strolling the countryside around his quaint English home. By digginginto their stories, Goodell portrays geoengineering as a human endeavour,carrying hefty doses of uncertainty, doubt and fear.
Itwhat seems to be an odd coincidence, both books end by likening geoengineeringto some kind of planetary gardening. Goodell takes some comfort in this notion,whereas Kintisch is sceptical about the idea that we can tame and controlecosystems, let alone the whole planet. To my mind, a better analogy(比拟,类比,类推)for geoengineering would be industrial agriculture, with vastfeedlots(饲育场)and fields of crops planted and harvestedby machines. This system works for now, but its sustainability is increasinglycoming into question. Similarly, geoengineering might appear to work well for awhile before its dark side becomes evident. As Princeton University s RobertSocolow recently told the Asilomar meeting: Be verycareful. Geoengineering comes with some strongwarnings, and they re worth heeding.
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