GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文三九

　　31. In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from

　　Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will

　　increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation

　　that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years,

　　together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee

　　consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age.

　　For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.

　　First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged

　　over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as

　　well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate

　　greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee

　　and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in

　　coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the

　　value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.

　　Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee

　　consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years,

　　then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase

　　in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more

　　opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second,

　　assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario

　　reflects the facts, the firms recommendation would be ill-founded.

　　Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola

　　consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of

　　the studies. Moreover, while the phrase studies suggest may appear to lend credibility

　　to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in

　　the absence of any information about them.

　　In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early

　　Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we

　　would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need

　　more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.