GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文七四

　　16. Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged

　　people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all

　　people seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover,

　　the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had

　　an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend better

　　times ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important

　　respects.

　　First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people

　　over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who

　　attend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no

　　means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade

　　would certainly nullify this expectation.

　　Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the

　　additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in

　　teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties

　　are in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of

　　teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some

　　fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.

　　Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates

　　in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information

　　about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding

　　teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable,

　　however, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the

　　past, the mere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh

　　graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.

　　In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the

　　author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an

　　increase in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects

　　for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no

　　idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.