GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文七九

　　11. The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito

　　vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons

　　cited are that during Montoyas four years in office the population has decreased while

　　unemployment has increased, whereas during Varros term unemployment declined

　　while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification

　　and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.

　　First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the

　　unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that

　　because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in

　　population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless

　　other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example,

　　perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the

　　current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends,

　　and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that

　　Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varros own administration set the

　　stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing

　　under Montoya.

　　Secondly, job availability and the economic health of ones community are issues

　　that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally

　　oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby

　　turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex

　　reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they

　　are also unfair to the parties involved.

　　In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak

　　argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has

　　caused San Perditos poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve

　　examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing

　　evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.