职称英语理工类的教材阅读理解文章及译文(2)

　　World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict 　　In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACSEnergyFuels1. 　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. 　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the worlds conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the worlds oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest. 　　conserve v.保护，保存 irreversible adj.不可逆的，不可改变的 　　spark v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞 insufficient 不充分的，不足的 　　注释： 　　2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。 　　4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。 　　6.conventional crude oil：常规原油 　　4.What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph? 　　B.It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries. 　　D.It discovers a new gend of worldwide oil production. 　　A.American scientists. 　　C.British scientists. 　　答案与题解： 　　2.D 此句接下来的句子中所提到的a related concept即是与a bell shaped curve相关的概念，也就是说，接下来的这个句子对a bell shaped curve做了解释，即世界石油生产达到最大峰值后将下降。 　　4.A 选项B、C和D所述内容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告诉我们，科学家使用新的模型评估了47个主要的产油国家的石油生产趋势，并预计全球常规原油生产到2014年将达最高峰值。所以，A是答案。 　　译文：第二篇 世界原油产量可能提前十年达到峰值 　　伊布赫姆?纳夏威和同事们指出，全球石油消耗的快速增长使人们对石油峰值预测的兴趣越来越浓。石油峰值指的是石油产量达到最大值后开始下降的时间点。科学家已经构建了几个模型来预测这一时间，有些模型认为这一时间在2020年或更晚。其中最着名的预测模型之一是赫伯特模型。赫伯特模型认为世界石油产量呈钟形曲线，与此相关的概念是石油峰值。这一术语指的是世界石油产量达到峰值的那一刻，之后将呈现无法逆转的下降趋势。 　　但是，最近研究表明，这一模型不足以解释某些国家更加复杂的石油生产周期。科学家称，这些生产周期受到技术变化、政策和其他因素的很大影响。