“北极和平”的终结

In the 20th century, North America was the world’s luckiest continent. While every other region had very direct and intimate experience of warfare on its territory, the continental US and Canada – “core North America, as it were – were mercifully exempt.

在20世纪，北美是世界最幸运的大陆。虽然其他所有地区都在自己的领土上直接而“亲密地经历了战争体验，但美国和加拿大大陆——可以说是北美“核心——幸免于难。

This century is likely to be far less exceptional. In the South China Sea lie the possible causes of a return of warfare to North American shores.

但本世纪北美恐怕难以独善其身了。在南中国海可以一窥可能使北美海岸重返战争的原因。

A stand-off pits an increasingly confident China against Vietnam and the Philippines (as well as Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei) for control of a few small islands – the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, the Macclesfield Bank and the Scarborough Shoal – and with these, significant natural resources and dwindling fish stocks.

在南中国海的对峙中，日益自信的中国同越南、菲律宾（以及台湾、马来西亚和文莱）争夺几座小岛的控制权——南沙群岛(Spratly Islands)、西沙群岛(Paracel Islands)、中沙群岛(Macclesfield Bank)和黄岩岛(Scarborough Shoal)，随之而来的是巨大的自然资源和日益萎缩的鱼类资源。

China is laying claim to the near-totality of the disputed territories. Fancying that it has time on its side, it has already begun to set up a strategic outpost – a prefecture-level city – to assert its occupation and administration of the atolls. Nationalist constituencies in all the countries concerned are pressing their respective governments for conspicuous displays of assertiveness. There are few signs of an easy end to the impasse.

中国宣称拥有几乎整个争议领土的所有权。中国认为该区域自古以来就是中国的领土，并且已经开始设立战略前哨——一座地级市——来宣称对这些环礁的所有权和管辖权。其他所有相关国家的民族主义选民正在向各自的政府施压，要求政府明确地展示自信。这一僵局尚未出现善了的迹象。

These events may also be a prologue to a longer story. A similar dynamic to that in the South China Sea may well develop in the Arctic, where at least five countries – the US, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark – are scrambling for position as the polar ice melts at ever-accelerating rates. China, while not yet a first-order Arctic player, is very much alive to this situation. It and other big players, including India and the EU, will want in. The ambitions of the actors in this theatre may soon be at odds with the prevailing “Pax Arctica doctrine that claims, at least publicly, that the international rule of law, prudence and co-operation will govern the judgment and behaviour of all players for the foreseeable future.

这些事件也可能是一篇漫长故事的序幕。北极地区可能发展出类似南中国海的对抗性态势，在这里，至少5个国家——美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、挪威和丹麦——正在随着极地冰川以前所未有的速度融化，争夺一席之地。中国虽然不是北极的第一梯队争夺者，但也积极参与这里的局势。中国及其他大国（包括印度和欧盟）都想参与进来。这幕大戏中演员们的野心也许不久就会与盛行的“北极和平(Pax Arctica)原则发生冲突。该原则至少公开地宣称，国际法治、审慎与合作在可预见的未来制约着所有玩家的判断和行为。

In the coming decade or two, once the polar ice has melted, use of the Northwest Passage will reduce travel distances between Asia and Europe by up to 7,000km. The aggregate hydrocarbon potential for countries in the Arctic will be significant – far larger than in the South China Sea. A July 2010 study by the US Geological Survey estimated that total undiscovered, conventional oil and gas resources in the Arctic would include 90bn of oil, 1,669tn cubic feet of natural gas and 44bn barrels of natural gas liquids – all largely offshore.

在未来10年或者20年内，一旦北极冰川融化，使用“西北航道(Northwest Passage)将使亚洲到欧洲的距离缩短7000公里。对北极国家而言，这里的碳氢化合物的潜在总储量十分可观——远远超过南中国海的储量。美国地质调查局(US Geological Survey)2010年7月的一项调查估计，北极地区未探明的传统油气资源总量包括900亿桶石油、1669万亿立方英尺天然气和440亿桶液化天然气，全部分布在近海。

Control over and in a number of islands and bodies of water, from the Northwest Passage (claimed by Canada as internal waters) to the Northern Sea Route (claimed by Russia as internal waters), the Beaufort Sea (disputed by Canada and the US), Hans Island (disputed by Denmark and Canada) and the Lomonosov Ridge (disputed by Russia, Denmark and Canada), is still being negotiated under the aegis of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which includes the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.

对大量岛屿及水域的控制——从“西北航道（加拿大宣称为内海）到“北海航线(Northern Sea Route)（俄罗斯宣称为内海），再到波弗特海(Beaufort Sea)（加拿大与美国之间存争议）、汉斯岛(Hans Island)（丹麦与加拿大存争议）以及罗蒙诺索夫海岭(Lomonosov Ridge)（俄罗斯、丹麦与加拿大之间存争议），仍在按照《联合国海洋法公约》(UN Convention on the Law of the Sea)进行磋商。联合国大陆架界限委员会(UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf)也参与到谈判中。

In this bustle of multilateral diplomatic activity, all seems calm, reasonable and transactional for now. But the growing tension in the South China Sea offers lessons for what is to come: a largely ice-free Arctic will bring a new, porous border to a continent that has long had the best borders of them all. Strategic chokeholds such as the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal and the Straits of Hormuz have, of course, always been contested, and have hosted many military conflicts. The High Arctic will become just such a strategic chokehold, with huge natural resources to boot.

在这纷繁的多边外交活动中，目前一切都看起来平静、合理、有商有量。但南中国海日益紧张的局势为未来的发展提供了教训：基本上没有冰川的北极将给北美大陆带来新的、易渗透的边境，而北美迄今一直拥有所有大陆中最坚实的边境。马六甲海峡、苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河与霍尔木兹海峡等战略要地当然一直充满争夺，发生过很多军事冲突。高纬度北极地区将变成一处类似的战略要地，脚下踩着庞大的自然资源。

The countries involved will not hesitate to project power, friendly and hostile alike, towards North American shores. This, in turn, will exert unprecedented pressure on the solidarity of Canadian and American societies. It will change the strategic thinking of their prime ministers and presidents. Unfortunately, the relative peace of the 20th century may become a thing of the past. The pressures in the Arctic and the troubling signs coming from the South China Sea suggest that North America may finally – more precisely, once again – begin to feel that war is no longer a far-off event.

所有相关国家，不论友好亦或敌对，都将毫不犹豫地在北美海岸投放军力。这将对加拿大和美国社会的团结构成前所未有的压力。这将改变两国总理和总统的战略思维。不幸的是，20世纪的相对和平可能成为回忆。北极地区的压力和南中国海的麻烦迹象表明，北美可能最终——或者更准确地讲，再次开始感受到战争并非远在天涯。

The writer is a fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and an assistant professor at the University of Toronto

本文作者是新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)李光耀公共政策学院(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)研究员及多伦多大学(University of Toronto)副教授