IMF放弃反对资本管制立场

The International Monetary Fund has cemented a substantial ideological shift by accepting the use of direct controls to calm volatile cross-border capital flows, as employed by emerging market countries in recent years.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)接受了以直接管制来平复动荡不定的跨境资本流动的做法，此举标志着该组织在政策思想上发生重大转变。近些年来，新兴市场国家即施行了此类直接管制。

Although the fund continued to warn that such controls should be “targeted, transparent, and generally temporary, the policy, announced in a staff paper released yesterday, is a sharp change from the fund’s enthusiasm for liberalising capital accounts during the 1990s.

虽然IMF仍警告称，此类管制应当“有针对性、透明、并且一般来说是暂时性的，但昨日发布的一份IMF工作人员研究报告中表述的这一政策思想，相对于该组织在上世纪90年代积极倡导放开资本账户的做法已有了显著转变。

Economies including Brazil – which has fiercely criticised super-loose US monetary policy for fuelling speculative inflows to its asset markets – Thailand and South Korea have experimented with taxes, regulations and other restrictions on capital. The Brazilian representative at the IMF said the fund was still too cautious and regarded capital controls as a last resort rather than a standard part of the policy tool kit.

巴西、泰国和韩国等经济体都尝试过借助税收、监管以及其他手段限制跨境资本流动。巴西驻IMF代表认为，IMF仍过于谨慎，仍将资本管制视为万不得已的手段、而不是政策工具箱的标配之一。巴西曾对美国超宽松货币政策促使热钱流入巴西资产市场提出强烈批评。

The fund paper said that while the free movement of capital was generally beneficial, it could destabilise economies whose financial systems were insufficiently developed. “Liberalisation needs to be well planned, timed and sequenced in order to ensure that its benefits outweigh the costs, the study said. “There is?.?.?.?no presumption that full liberalisation is an appropriate goal for all countries at all times.

上述报告指出，资本自由流动通常来说是有益的，但在金融体系尚未发展完备的国家，这种流动可能会破坏经济稳定。报告称：“放开管制需要周密布局、谨慎择时、循序渐进，以确保其收益大于成本。我们不应假定，放开管制对于任何国家在任何时点都是合适的政策目标。

The IMF continued to argue that direct capital controls were not a substitute for macroeconomic responses to rapid inflows, including tightening fiscal policy, cutting interest rates and letting the exchange rate rise.

IMF的报告还指出，直接资本管制不能替代针对资本快速涌入的宏观经济对策，例如收紧财政政策、降息以及允许本币汇率走高。

Paulo Nogueira Batista, who represents Brazil and 10 other countries on the fund’s executive board, said the staff paper still retained a “pro-liberalisation bias and underplayed the role of rich countries in fuelling volatile flows.

在IMF执行董事会中代表巴西以及其他十国的保罗·诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔(Paulo Nogueira Batista)表示，这份报告仍带有“支持放开管制的倾向，并对富裕国家在助长不稳定资本流动方面扮演的角色轻描淡写。

Brazil, whose finance minister, Guido Mantega, has repeatedly warned of a “currency war, has criticised the US Federal Reserve for holding interest rates near zero, which he said encouraged investors to borrow cheaply in dollars and chase high returns in emerging markets.

巴西指责美联储(Fed)将利率维持在近零水平，诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔称，此举促使投资者以较低成本借入美元、而后涌入新兴市场追逐高额回报。巴西财长吉多·曼特加(Guido Mantega)也多次发出关于“汇率战争的警告。

In a response to the staff view, published yesterday in a personal capacity, Mr Nogueira Batista said: “Despite some progress compared to its previous work, the IMF has failed to deliver convincing results.

针对这份IMF工作人员以个人名义发布的报告，诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔表示：“尽管它相对于之前的研究可谓取得了一定进展，但IMF仍未能给出令人信服的研究结果。

The experiences of Iceland, Spain, Ireland and central and eastern European countries showed the dangers of large and volatile capital movements.

冰岛、西班牙、爱尔兰以及中东欧国家的经历表明，大规模剧烈资本流动可造成各种危害。

“The ongoing crisis has yet to have a full impact on the way the IMF considers capital flows, Mr Nogueira Batista said. “The extent of the damage that large and volatile capital flows can cause to recipient countries has not been sufficiently recognised.

诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔表示：“当前正在上演的危机仍未全面影响到IMF对于资本流动的看法。它仍未充分认识到，大规模剧烈资本流动会对资本流入国造成多大危害。

During the 1990s, under pressure from the US Treasury, the IMF management proposed changing the institution’s rules to promote capital account liberalisation. The drive was abandoned after the Asian financial crisis stiffened em-erging markets’ opposition.

上世纪90年代，在美国财政部的施压下，IMF管理层提议调整该组织的规章，以促进资本账户放开。随着新兴市场国家对该提议的反对态度因亚洲金融危机而趋于强化，IMF放弃了这一努力。