加息还是不加 美联储的决定不好做

WASHINGTON — As markets quake and stock prices fall, investors increasingly are betting thatthe Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year.

华盛顿——随着股市地震和股价下跌的发生，投资者越来越多地押注美国联邦储备今年不会加息。

Their conclusion is a striking rejection of the Fed’s stated plans — and it appearspremature.

他们的结论截然否认了美联储所声明的计划，但似乎下结论还为时过早。

The Fed watches financial markets closely, of course. Investors are losing money they mighthave spent, and falling prices can be an indicator of broader economic problems.

美联储当然对金融市场有密切观察。投资者的亏损让他们失去了可能用来消费的钱，而物价下跌则可能意味着更广泛的经济问题。

But the losses so far probably aren’t big enough to crimp growth, and officials have plenty oftime to see what happens next. The Fed’s policy making committee doesn’t meet until mid-September, and it has two more meetings scheduled later this year, in October and December.

但是，股市的亏损到目前为止还没有大到会妨碍增长的程度，官员们仍有足够的时间来观察接下来会发生什么。美联储的政策制定委员会要到9月中旬才开会，而且今年还有两次预定的会议，分别是在10月和12月。

“I expect the normalization of monetary policy — that is, interest rates — to begin sometimethis year, Dennis P. Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in acalming speech that he delivered in Berkeley, Calif., on Monday as the closing bell rang in NewYork, ending another ride on the market roller coaster.

“我预计货币政策的正常化、也就是利率正常化，将在今年某个时候开始，亚特兰大联邦储备银行(FederalReserve Bank of Atlanta)行长丹尼斯·P·洛克哈特(Dennis P. Lockhart)在加利福尼亚州伯克利发表讲话。在他周一发表讲话之时，纽约股市又经历了一个过山车式的收盘。

The volatility of financial markets over the last few days contrasts with the stability ofdomestic economic growth over the last several years. The Fed is focused on that broaderpicture, and while the pace of growth remains sluggish by past standards, central bank officialshave suggested repeatedly that they regard it as good enough.

金融市场过去几天的动荡与美国国内经济在过去几年中稳步增长形成对照。美联储关注的是更大范围的情况，虽然增长速度按照过去的标准来看仍然低迷，但央行官员已多次暗示，他们认为已经足够好了。

Mr. Lockhart noted some of the factors that are roiling markets, including the rise of the dollar,China’s currency devaluation and falling oil prices. But he said the Atlanta Fed expected theeconomy to continue its expansion, including adding jobs.

洛克哈特提到了一些导致市场动荡的因素，包括美元升值、中国货币贬值，以及石油价格下跌。但他表示，亚特兰大联邦储备银行预计经济将继续扩张，继续增加就业机会。

“The current bout of market turmoil, if it continues, might persuade the Fed to hold off onraising interest rates in September, Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at CapitalEconomics, wrote on Monday. “Since that volatility doesn’t reflect any genuine economicslump, however, we wouldn’t be surprised if it proved short-lived, leaving the way open for theFed to begin raising rates at some point this year.

“目前一轮的市场动荡，如果继续下去，可能会说服美联储推迟9月份的加息，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的北美首席经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)周一写道。“但由于这种股市波动并不是真正的经济衰退的反映，如果事实证明波动是暂时的，给美联储留有在今年某个时候开始加息的余地，我们也不会感到惊讶。

Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, has said that the Fed wants to raise itsbenchmark rate slowly over the next several years, gradually reducing its long-running stimuluscampaign to bring the economy back to good health. The Fed has held short-term rates nearzero since December 2008.

美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)曾表示，美联储要在未来几年内慢慢提高基准利率，逐步取消其为让经济恢复活力而长期执行的刺激政策。自2008年12月以来，美联储一直将短期利率保持在接近零的水平。

The Fed has repeatedly delayed the beginning of that process, as economic growth has fallenshort of its expectations. But as recently as June, most members of the Fed’s leadership — 15of the 17 senior officials — indicated they planned to start raising rates this year.

由于经济增长一直没有达到预期的水平，美联储一再推迟了提升利率程序的起点。但是，近在今年6月，美联储领导层的大多数成员，也就是17名官员中的15名表示，他们打算今年开始加息。

That plan faced considerable skepticism even before the recent market downturn. Inflationhas remained persistently sluggish since the Great Recession, even as job growth hasstrengthened. Some Fed officials cautioned that the central bank had not done enough toraise inflation toward its targeted 2 percent annual pace.

早在最近的市场低迷之前，就有不少人对这一计划有相当大的怀疑。自从经济大衰退(Great Recession)以来，虽然就业有所增长，但通货膨胀率一直走低。一些美联储官员警告说，央行尚未采取足够措施来实现把年度通货膨胀率提高到2%的目标。

Recent events have heightened those misgivings. The decline of oil prices and China’s latesteconomic stimulus may further damp inflation. The fall of stock prices also reflects concernamong some investors about the health of the domestic economy. The share of Americanswithout jobs remains unusually high and wage growth remains weak, problems that apremature rate increase could worsen.

最近的股市动荡加剧了这种怀疑。油价的下跌、以及中国最近采取的经济刺激政策，可能会进一步降低通货膨胀率。股票价格大跌也反映了部分投资者对美国国内经济健康状况的担忧。没有工作的美国人所占的比例仍非常高，工资增长仍然疲弱，过早加息可能会让这些问题恶化。

“A reasonable assessment of current conditions suggests that a rate increase “in the nearfuture would be a serious error that would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives —price stability, full employment and financial stability, Lawrence H. Summers, a Harvardeconomist who served as President Obama’s chief economic adviser, wrote in an opinion piece inThe Financial Times on Monday.

曾为美国总统奥巴马担任首席经济顾问的哈佛大学经济学家劳伦斯·H·萨默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)周一在《金融时报》发表的一篇评论文章中写道，“对当前状况的合理评估意味着，“在不久的将来加息，“将会是一个严重的错误，将威胁到美联储的三个主要目标，即物价稳定、充分就业，以及金融稳定。

In addition, the International Monetary Fund has expressed concern that the Fed, by raisingrates, could increase pressure on developing economies.

此外，国际货币基金组织也曾担心，美联储提高利率可能会让发展中经济体的压力增加。

And the market’s decline helps mitigate worries that low interest rates encourage excessivespeculation.

股市的下跌有助于缓解人们对低利率鼓励过度投机的担忧。

Against that backdrop, more investors are now concluding that the Fed will decide to wait alittle longer before raising rates.

在此背景下，更多的投资者现在的结论是，美联储在加息之前将决定等待更长一点的时间。

Measures of expectations derived from asset prices have shifted sharply in recent days. Theodds of a September rate increase, by one measure, fell by half, from about 48 percent lastweek to just 22 percent on Monday. Even more striking, the odds of a rate increase this yearfell below 50 percent for the first time.

源于资产价格的预期估算在最近几天里有很大的变化。按一种算法，9月份加息的可能性降低了一半，从上周约48%的概率降至周一的22%。更引人注目的是，人们对今年加息概率的估算首次降到50%以下。

Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays, who had predicted a September liftuntil the recent stock market sell-off, said he now expected the Fed to wait until March.

巴克莱(Barclays)的美国市场首席经济师迈克尔·加彭(Michael Gapen)曾预测9月份加息，那是在近期的股市抛售之前，他说他目前的预测是，美联储会等到明年三月。

“Although we continue to see economic activity in the U.S. as solid and justifying modest ratehikes, we believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin a hiking cycle in this environment forfear that such a move may further destabilize markets, Mr. Gapen wrote in a note to clientson Monday.

“虽然我们继续看到，美国的经济活动相当不错，有适度加息的理由，但我们认为，出于对加息可能会进一步扰乱市场的担忧，美联储不太可能在这种环境下开始加息的进程，加彭周一在一份发给客户的简报中写道。

Fed officials may reach a different conclusion, but the shift in expectations still poses achallenge because officials have said they want markets to be ready for an increase. Byminimizing the element of surprise, they hope to minimize volatility.

美联储官员可能会有不同的想法，但预期的改变对他们来说仍是一个挑战，因为官员们曾表示，他们要让市场对加息有所准备。他们希望通过减少突然的因素来尽量减少市场的波动。

If the Fed wants to convince investors that September is still on the table, time is runningshort. The most obvious opportunity comes this weekend, when central bankers will gatherin Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming for an annual policy conference. The Fed’s vicechairman, Stanley Fischer, is scheduled to speak.

如果美联储希望说服投资者，九月份加息仍在日程之上的话，他们的时间不多了。最明显的机会是这个周末，届时央行行长们将在怀俄明州大提顿国家公园(Grand Teton National Park)举行年度政策会议。美联储副主席斯坦利·费希尔(Stanley Fischer)已被安排发表讲话。