希拉里将重燃美国企业的动物精神

One thing going for Hillary Clinton’s strugglingcampaign is that she is alert to new ideas. Emailscandals continue to rumble. Her mediocrity on the stump worries supporters — no Bill Clintonor Barack Obama is she. But even detractors concede her appetite for new thinking. Her boldidea is to take on economic short-termism.

有一件事支撑着希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)满布荆棘的竞选之路——她对新观点颇为警惕。“邮件门丑闻持续发酵。她在竞选演说中表现出的平庸让支持者担心——她既不是比尔克林顿(Bill Clinton)，也不是巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)。但是，现在甚至连批评者也承认，她乐于接受新思维。她的大胆思路是打击经济短期主义。

The topic’s wonkishness ensures it will be drowned out by Donald Trump’s shenanigans. Yet itought to be taken seriously. The odds are that Mrs Clinton is the next president, which will puther in a good position to wage war on “quarterly capitalism, as she calls it. She might even winvictories. Ending the tyranny of quarterly earnings is an idea that is on the march.

该话题的书呆子气使其必将敌不过唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)的诡计。不过，人们也应该认真对待该话题。希拉里有可能会成为下届总统，那将使她处于绝佳位置来向她所说的“季度资本主义(quarterlycapitalism)开战。她或许甚至会赢得胜利。结束季度盈利的暴政，这是一个正在上升中的观点。

The case for reforming shareholder capitalism is strong. The level of US investment is at itslowest since 1947. Last year, according to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spentmore than $500bn on share buybacks . This year it is expected to hit $600bn.

改革股东资本主义的理由很有说服力。美国投资水平正处于自1947年以来的最低点。据高盛(GoldmanSachs)数据显示，去年标普500指数(S&P 500)成份企业在股票回购方面的支出超过5000亿美元。今年预计将达到6000亿美元。

The longer this cycle continues, the more puzzling the investment drought becomes. Withhealthy profits and a near zero cost of capital, now ought to be the time to lay down plans forthe future. Today’s investments yield tomorrow’s dividends. But listed companies are almostuniformly opting for dividends today. For every dollar the top US public companies spend oninvestment, they are returning eight or nine dollars to shareholders.

这种循环持续地越久，投资干涸的问题就会变得越令人伤脑筋。在利润良好和资本成本接近于零的情况下，如今本应该是为未来制定计划的时候。今天的投资决定了明天的红利。但是上市公司几乎一致选择了今天的红利。美国顶级上市公司在投资上每花一分钱，都给股东带来8或9倍的回报。

Corporate America is stuck in a self-fulfilling pessimism. As long as it believes US growth willnot exceed roughly two per cent a year, it will not bet on future expansion, which deliverswhat it fears. In an ideal world, the US public sector would compensate for private sectorsaving by running fiscal deficits. But that is a political impossibility.

美国企业正陷于自我实现的悲观主义之中。只要企业认为美国年增长率不会超过约2%，它们就不会押注未来的扩张，扩张会带来它们所恐惧的后果。在一个完美世界里，美国公共部门会通过财政赤字来弥补私营部门储蓄不足的情况。但是这在政治上是不可能的。

The merit of Mrs Clinton’s idea is that she would try to kindle investors’ animal spirits withoutexpanding government. Today’s incentives are hopelessly biased towards boosting the short-term share price. That is how business chiefs are rewarded. Mrs Clinton is right to point outthat America is short-changed because of it.

希拉里思路的可取之处在于，她会试图在不使政府膨胀的情况下点燃投资者的动物本能。眼下的激励措施都绝望地偏向于推高短期股价。这是公司高管获得奖励的途径。希拉里指出美国因此被蒙蔽了，她说的没错。

But her cure is no match for her diagnosis. She would introduce a tapered capital gains tax thatwould fall with the duration of the investment. Those who held their stake for at least sixyears would pay a lower capital gains tax of 20 per cent. Those who sold within two years wouldpay almost double. It is doubtful such tinkering would be enough to alter investors’ timehorizons. The lure of a bird in the hand would still outweigh two in the bush.

但是，她治病的本领比不上诊断的本领。她会引入一种锥形的资本利得税制，投资时间越长，税率就越低。那些持股至少6年以上的人，适用的资本利得税税率比较低，为20%。那些两年内出售的人需要支付的资本利得税差不多要增加一倍。如此小修小补是否足以使投资者改变投资期限，是令人怀疑的。一鸟在手的诱惑仍然大过双鸟在林。

Many big investors, including pension funds, are already exempt from taxation. Nor is herproposal likely to deter shareholder activists, whose gains from holding C-suites to ransomwill outweigh any new penalties. As long as chief executives’ compensation packages are setby the share price, little is likely to change.

包括养老基金在内的很多大型投资机构，都已享受免税。希拉里的提议也不可能吓住维权股东，他们从胁迫有管理层中获得的收益，将高于任何新惩罚。只要高管薪酬方案的制定以股价为基础，就不太可能发生什么改变。

Yet Mrs Clinton is venturing where others fear to tread. Quarterly capitalism was king during BillClinton’s administration in the 1990s. It still rules on the right. The chief mark of today’sRepublican field is its allergy to new ideas. With the modest exception of Marco Rubio, whohas suffered for it, every candidate is proposing big headline tax cuts — and little else. It is asif the last decade did not happen.

不过，希拉里下注的领域是其他人不敢涉足的。季度资本主义是上世纪90年代比尔克林顿执政期间的王道，目前在右翼阵营也仍然占支配地位。如今共和党阵营的主要标志是其对新鲜想法的反感。有了温和的马可脠比奥(Marco Rubio)这样的例外(他也因此备受折磨)，每一个候选人都在提出声势浩大的减税计划——其他方面基本不提。就好像过去十年没有发生过一样。

The GOP is as much in the grip of 1980s supply-side thinking as ever. The economist ArthurLaffer, who popularised the notion that tax cuts always pay for themselves, remains the patronsaint of Republican hopefuls. Anything that contradicts his edict is taboo.

共和党依旧受上世纪80年代供应端思维的控制。经济学家阿瑟拉弗(Arthur Laffer)普及了减税总会自己买单的概念，他仍然是共和党候选人的守护神。任何有悖其戒律的事都是禁忌。

This is both bad economics and bad politics. At a time of record inequality and stagnantwages, bigger tax cuts for high earners in 2016 is likely to be a vote loser.

这既是糟糕的经济学，也是糟糕的政治学。在不平等和收入停滞处于历史记录高点之际，若对高收入者更大的减税政策，则很可能在2016年的投票中败北。

To Mrs Clinton’s left, the big idea is to break up the “too big to fail banks and punish WallStreet for its crimes. So far Mrs Clinton has resisted such populism. If Bernie Sanders, thesocialist from Vermont, continues to poll well in Iowa, that might change. But if the size ofbanks had been the cause of the 2008 meltdown, Canada — with just a handful of big ones —would have fared worse than the US. The politics of breaking up Wall Street electrifiesDemocratic primary voters but the economics is unpersuasive.

对于希拉里所在的民主党而言，结束“太大而不能倒的银行业、惩罚华尔街的罪行，是一个好主意。希拉里目前仍抵制这类民粹主义观点。如果来自佛特蒙州的民主社会主义者伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)在爱荷华州的民调继续保持良好的话，这一局面也许会改变。但是，如果银行的规模是造成2008年经济崩盘的原因，只拥有少数大型银行的加拿大本应该比美国境遇更糟。打烂华尔街的政治主张会点燃民主党初选选民的热情，但是在经济上的好处无法令人信服。

The advantage of Mrs Clinton’s platform is that it is both accurate and popular. She is alsoin good company. When critics accuse her of class warfare, she can refer them to similarpoints made by Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world. DominicBarton, the managing director of McKinsey, the world’s best known consultancy, is also onboard. He invented the term quarterly capitalism. Many economists, including conservativethink-tankers on a hunt for a candidate bold enough to agree with them, have also signed up.Their aim is not to soak the rich but to repair capitalism.

希拉里所处平台的优势在于既精准又受欢迎。她也有许多志同道合的伙伴。当批评者指责她搞阶级战争时，她可以让他们参考全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的掌门人拉里芬克(Larry Fink)类似的观点。全世界最知名咨询机构麦肯锡(McKinsey)的董事总经理鲍达民(Dominic Barton)也在之列。他发明了“季度资本主义这个术语。很多经济学者，包括一些正在物色敢于认同其观点的候选人的保守派智库人士，也已为希拉里背书。他们的目标不是对富人课以重税,而是修复资本主义。

Can such ideas win Mrs Clinton the White House? The next US election will be fought on theeconomy. For the time being, Mrs Clinton has the policy field to herself. The left lacks aplausible champion. The right is forming a circular firing squad. The door is wide open tooriginal thinking. Whatever her flaws as a candidate, Mrs Clinton’s instinct is to walk throughit.

这类主张能让希拉里入主白宫吗?下一届美国大选将会在经济议题上展开角逐。眼下，希拉里有自己的政策主张。左翼阵营缺乏一项令人信服的政策纲领。右翼阵营正在组成一个环形行刑队。创造性思维的大门正敞开着。无论希拉里作为候选人有什么缺点，她的本能就是闯过难关。